Distortion of uncertainty in science: Antarctic fin whales in the 1950s

Abstract

In the 1950s, the majority of scientists in the International Whaling Commission (IWC) argued that the fin whale was overexploited in the Southern Hemisphere. However, several other scientists throughout the period persistently objected to this view. The scientific controversy attendant to this issue engendered great uncertainty. This uncertainty contributed towards extending the period of excessive whaling, and nearly destroyed the IWC. This paper reviews the fin whale debate in detail, puts the debate in a political perspective, and argues that the intentional injection of controversy for non‐scientific reasons in decision‐making forums, which the author terms “distortion of uncertainty,” constitutes an act of scientific misconduct.

Keywords:

• Fin whales
• International Whaling Commission
• Southern Hemisphere
• Norway

Notes

A pre‐runner of this paper was prepared while visiting the Secretariat of the International Whaling Commission (IWC). Thanks are due to Ray Gambell and Greg Donovan at the IWC, and to Steinar Andresen, Ray Beverton, Sidney Brown, Alf Håkon Hoel, Richard Laws, Lise Kjølsrød, Ed Miles, Nils Roll‐Hansen, Tim Smith, Richard Southwood, Oran Young and “Willy Østreng who all have read earlier versions of the paper and given me help and encouragement.

The original version of the paper was presented to the Scientific Committee of the IWC as paper SC/44/013 in 1992: Intransigence, incompetence or political expediency? Dutch scientists in the International Whaling Commission in the 1950s: Injection of Uncertainty. Accompanied by a rebuttal from Sidney Holt, it is available from the secretariat of the IWC.

A previous version of the paper, combined with material from Schweder (2000), was invited for submission to a reputed scientific journal in 1992, and was subsequently accepted for publication after peer review. Due to threats of libel suits against the publisher, it was, however, refused publication by the publisher.

Member of the IWC Scientific Committee; Professor of Statistics, University of Oslo, Box 1095 Blindem, 0317 Oslo 3, Norway, Tel.: [phone], Fax: [phone], e‐mail: [email protected].