Homicide drop in Finland, 1996–2012

Abstract

Homicide rates have decreased in Finland since the late 1990s by over 40%. The decrease has been part of a general trend in Western developed nations. This article provides a descriptive single-country case study of the drop by disaggregating and comparing the Finnish homicides during three periods: 1998–2000, 2003–2007 and 2008–2012. The data are mainly from the Finnish Homicide Monitor and comprise all intentional homicides (excluding attempts) reported to the Finnish Police. The study aims to probe the generality versus specificity of the homicide drop in terms of homicide structure and patterns. The results indicate that rather than being completely general, the Finnish drop has been largely driven by a decrease in alcohol-related violence of working-age men. This decline seems to have comprised all male population groups, but in terms of relative risk it has been most drastic among the economically active population and less significant in the traditional high-risk group of Finnish homicidal crime, unemployed alcoholics. However, since the risk and absolute share of homicides committed by unemployed alcoholics are high, lesser risk changes in that category are substantially important. Disaggregated description additionally reveals that the general homicide drop hides ‘localized’ counter-trends such as an increase of crimes committed by young females. The findings are discussed in the context of findings from other European countries and from the point of view of future research needs in homicide drop studies.

Keywords::

• homicide
• trend
• disaggregation
• crime drop
• Finland
• Nordic countries

Notes

^1. The main problem concerns data on the alcohol intoxication of offenders. In the 1996–2000 data, the information is based on the Police Crime Report System and not comparable with the FHM data (i.e. cases coded as data missing make up a much larger percentage of the Police Crime Report System). We have adjusted the information by comparing the intoxication information of the Police Crime Report System data and FHM data for the years 2003–2007, and assuming that the data-missing cases in the Police Crime Report System comprised a similar percentage of intoxicated offenders and sober offenders in 1996–2000 as they did in 2003–2007.

^2. According to victim surveys, this increase is to a large degree a function of rising propensity to report offences to the police (Lehti, Sirén, Aaltonen, Danielsson, & Kivivuori, 2013). On the possible role of cultural sensitivity, see the concluding discussion.

^3. The combined mortality of boys and girls less than 15 years of age decreased by 20% between the periods.

^4. There were huge relative increases and decreases in the oldest female age groups because of a very small annual number of offenders and consequent substantial random fluctuation. The combined offending rate of women of 35 years of age and older decreased during the period from 0.37 to 0.34 ( − 8%).

^5. The two largest groups among the non-active population other than the unemployed were students and persons on early retirement (often related to chronic alcoholism and alcohol-related deceases); by absolute numbers, the annual number of student offenders decreased from 1998–2000 to 2008–2012 by 78%, and the number of those on early retirement decreased by 43%. It was not possible to calculate homicide rate changes in these two groups separately, but it is obvious that the homicide rate of students decreased more steeply than that of persons on early retirement.

^6. In 2012 the consumption per capita was 15% higher than in 1995.