Building methodology, assessing the risks: the case of energy security in the Baltic States

Abstract

The purpose of this article is not confined to analysis of risks to the Baltic States’ energy security. The research aimed to develop methods for risk intensity assessment in the area of energy security in the Baltic States, based on scenario-building and risk assessment tools as well empirical examples. It encompasses an effort to tailor a system of damage and probability (i.e. risk intensity) assessment used by other authors to risk analysis. The analysis performed by using this methodology shows the existence of at least two major energy security risks of intolerable intensity for the Baltic States: dependency on a single energy resources supplier and a wrong (in the terms of transparency, competence and knowledge) decision making process. Neutralization of these two risks or mitigation of the negative consequences caused by these should become the energy security priorities for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

Keywords:

• Baltic States
• energy risks
• assessment methodology

JEL classification:

• P48
• E17