The effect and implications for a stochastic pattern of lotto game play

Abstract

Lotteries have one of the highest penetration of use in the population of all products. Although alleged to have the lowest level of “addicted” play, reported purchase appears to reflect patterns that suggest high levels of habitual behaviour. In an attempt to test this, a stochastic preference model (a NBD) was applied to nine quarterly cross‐sectional surveys of residents of the State of Florida. The results suggest that habit, in the pattern of the NBD, provides an accurate prediction and possible explanation of Lotto product play. The implications of these findings for marketers are that there will be little effect of promotion on the size of the market once it matures.