Modelling fundamentals and the quantification and spatial presentation of uncertainty

Abstract

The fundamental nature of two different types of models was examined relative to how spatial uncertainty can be quantified and represented for communication to users of model outputs. One model was a complex systems-based landscape model driven by hydrological dynamics whose calibration is an iterative semi-objective process. The other is a crop-specific landscape suitability model that is calibrated using expert knowledge. How fundamental model differences impact the type of uncertainty information that can be produced is discussed as are difficulties in producing such information. Finally, commonalities between the two approaches relative to uncertainty are discussed.

Keywords:

• uncertainty
• spatial presentation
• land use suitability
• hydrological modelling