Simulating changes in tourism demand: a case study of two German regions

ABSTRACT

Travel behaviour is shaped by the complex interaction of a variety of societal, economic, ecological and political drivers that undergo rapid changes. This poses continually new challenges on destinations which need to adapt to altering conditions. Significant changes of influencing factors might lead to shifts in tourism flows in temporal and/or spatial dimensions. This study investigates how German tourists’ destination choices develop under changing framework conditions. It furthermore rates the impact of influencing factors such as socio-demographic and socio-economic aspects on changes in tourism demand using an agent-based model. The interactions among 15 million tourists and 109 European destinations are simulated under three different scenarios. Destinations included in the model develop in different ways in regard to tourist arrivals until 2030. The results indicate that the number of tourist arrivals will develop divergently in the investigated regions until 2030 and that some market segments will undergo changes in seasonality: the model shows a growth in arrivals for many city destinations, cultural as well as sports and active tourism destinations. It indicates a trend towards equalisation in the segments sun and sea tourism, city and cultural tourism with a shift from summer months to spring and autumn towards 2030. They furthermore imply that demographic change dominates altering tourism demand in the source market and that related changes in travel preferences are the most urgent challenge for destinations.

摘要

旅行行为是由各种社会、经济、生态与政治驱动因素的复杂互动决定的,这些驱动因素都在快速变化。这不断给旅游目的地提出新的挑战,使其适应各种快速变化的情形。旅游目的地各种影响因素的重大变化可能会导致旅游流的时空改变。本研究调查了德国旅游目的地选择在各种变化框架下的发展变化,并且运用一个基于代理人模型评价了各种社会人口统计因素和社会经济因素对旅游需求变化的影响。本研究模拟了三种不同情景下150万旅游者与109 个旅游目的地的相互作用。模型中涉及的旅游目的地为响应直至2030年的旅客量变化以不同的方式发展变化。结果表明,直至2030年,旅游人数在调查区内以发散的方式发展变化,某些细分市场将经历季节性变化。模拟结果表明,很多城市、文化及体育运动目的地旅游人数将会增加。本研究也表明,在直至2030年的时间范围内,随着夏季月份到春秋季月份的变动,日光及海水浴、城市以及文化旅游细分市场呈现出均等化的趋势。上述结果也暗示出,人口因素变化主导客源地旅游需求的变化,旅行偏好的相关变化趋势对旅游目的地来说是最紧迫的挑战。

KEYWORDS:

• Agent-based modelling
• destination choice
• scenario analysis
• tourism demand
• tourism future
• Germany

关键词:

• 代理人模型
• 目的地选择
• 情景分析
• 旅游需求
• 旅游业未来
• 德国

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the German Research Foundation [SCHM 850/15-1].

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Christine Reintinger

Christine Reintinger is a research associate at the Department of Geography, LMU Munich. Her research focuses on the perception of global change aspects and travel decision-making.

Anja Berghammer

Anja Berghammer has a Ph.D. degree in geography and works as a principal investigator at the Department of Geography, LMU Munich. Her research focuses on tourist industry, SMEs and climate/global change adaptation.

Jürgen Schmude

Jürgen Schmude is a professor of economic geography and tourism research at the Department of Geography, LMU Munich. The impact of global change on the tourist industry is a core element of his research.