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ABSTRACT
Historical park visitation and weather data, taken at the daily time scale from 2000 to 2009 for Pinery Provincial Park in southern Ontario (Canada), were analysed as an objective measure of the weather sensitivity, temperature thresholds, and potential impacts of projected climate change for park visitation. Three seasonal weather-visitation models were constructed using multivariable linear regression (peak, shoulder, off-season). To account for both natural and institutional seasonality, the weather-visitation models included both climatic (temperature, precipitation) and social (weekends, holidays) variables, which demonstrated equably comparable effects on visitation across the three models. Critical temperature thresholds were identified for each season using one-way analysis of variance to determine the range of temperatures within which the threshold was evident; the specific degree of temperature associated with the threshold was identified within the seasonal regression models. Temperatures over 33 °C during the peak season and over 29 °C during the shoulder season indicated critical thresholds at which point conditions that were ‘too hot’ for some caused a decline in visitation. Furthermore, temperatures below 11 °C indicated another critical threshold, where conditions were ‘too cold’ for most and therefore park visitation was less sensitive to temperature variability below this threshold. A partial sensitivity analysis for the impact of a warmer, wetter climate on park visitation was conducted, illustrating the effect of a 1 °C to 5 °C warming in maximum temperatures, coupled with a 5% to 15% increase in total precipitation. In response to projected climate change, the weather-visitation models suggested that for each additional degree of warming experienced, despite the negative effects of increasing precipitation and more frequent heat extremes, annual park visitation could increase by 3.1%, annually. The projected increase in park visitation as a result of rising temperatures was mainly associated with shoulder season visitation, with only minor increases in peak season visitation.
抽象
本研究分析加拿大安大略省南部松林省立公园2000至2009年期间的公园每日访问量历史数据和天气数据, 将之作为客观指标研究公园访问的天气敏感度、气温阀值以及预计气候变化对公园访问的影响。本研究运用多元线性回归构建了三个季节༈旺季、平季与淡季༉的天气-访问模型。为了说明自然节律季节性和制度性季节性对公园访问量的影响, 这三种模型既包括了气候因素变量༈如气温、降雨༉, 也包括了社会因素变量༈如周末、节日༉, 表明了这些因素在三种模型下对公园访问量同等的、可资比较的效果。利用单因素方差分析识别了每种季节适于公园访问的关键气温阀值以及相应的特定气温度数。旺季33°C以上, 平季29°C以上的气温, 表明这些阀值对某些游客来说就太热, 导致公园访问量的减少。另外, 低于11°C的气温代表另一个关键阀值, 在此条件下对绝大多数游客来说天气就过冷, 在此阀值以下公园访问量对温度变化就较不敏感。对温暖潮湿气候对公园访问量的影响进行了局部敏感性分析, 说明了最大气温升温1-5°C, 伴随总降雨量增加5-15%对公园访问量的影响。为响应预计的气候变化, 天气-访问量模型表明, 如果天气每升温一度, 尽管有降雨增加、极端温热天气更趋频繁的负面影响, 但是公园年访问量会以每年3.1%的速度增加。伴随气温升高, 公园访问的增加量主要与平季访问量有关, 而旺季访问量只是略微增加。
Acknowledgements
Under terms of the agreement to use the data, we must acknowledge the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Parks and Protected Areas Policy Section: This authorization letter will serve for access to park data while conducting your research for the following person(s): principal investigator, Daniel Scott. This authorization to conduct research is subject to the following terms and conditions. General conditions: this authorization is issued by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources under Provincial Parks and Conservation Reserves Act, 2006. We would also like to acknowledge the generous funding supplied from Dr William Gough's research chair, Director of the Climate Lab at the University of Toronto Scarborough Campus. This financial contribution made this research possible during the summer of 2014, while the corresponding author was enrolled in a Ph.D. in geography at the University of Toronto, working under Dr Gough's supervision.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Micah Hewer
Micah Hewer is a Ph.D. candidate in geography at the University of Toronto, Canada. He completed a master of environmental studies in tourism policy and planning at the University of Waterloo and a bachelor of tourism studies in Tourism Administration at Brock University. He has published in the field of tourism climatology, specifically for camping in provincial parks and zoo visitation; as well as in the field of climate change impact assessment for tourism, specifically for zoo visitation.
Daniel Scott
Daniel Scott is a Canada Research Chair in global change and tourism at the University of Waterloo, Canada. He has been a contributing author and expert reviewer for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change third and fourth assessment reports. He is also the Chair of the World Meteorological Organization's expert team on climate and tourism and Co-chair of the International Society of Biometeorology's Commission on climate tourism and recreation.
Adam Fenech
Adam Fenech has worked extensively in the area of climate change since 1988 starting with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change first assessment report. He recently joined the University of Prince Edward Island as Director of the Climate Research Unit. Previously, Adam also worked as a senior climatologist with Environment Canada.
