Reset redux: possible evolutionary pathways towards the transformation of tourism in a COVID-19 world

Abstract

With international arrivals surpassing 1.5 billion for the first time in 2019 the long-term evolution of tourism demonstrates prolific path dependence with a decade of growth since the global financial crisis. This latest period of unfettered international tourism development has come to an abrupt end as the impact of COVID-19 has brought the sector to a near standstill. As the world grapples with the realities of the global pandemic there is an opportunity to rethink exactly what tourism will look like for the decades ahead. Key concepts in evolutionary economic geography, especially path dependence/creation and institutional inertia/innovation, show variations in pathways for travel and tourism in a COVID-19 world. A path that leads to transformation in tourism can be realized if sufficient institutional innovation occurs on both the demand and supply side of tourism that can foster the emergence of new paths. COVID-19 presents a once in a generation opportunity where the institutional pump is primed for transformation. Whether that leads to a radical transformation of the tourism sector remains to be seen, but the imprint it will leave on both the demand and supply of tourism will have long-term, incremental impacts for years to come and ultimately move us closer towards the transformation of tourism.

摘要

历经全球金融危机以来的10年增长后, 国际游客人次数在2019年首次超过15亿, 旅游业演化表现出明显的路径依赖。近期国际旅游业务的自由发展突然终止, 这是由于新型冠状病毒疾病的冲击使整个行业近乎停滞。全世界正努力应对这个全球性流行病所带来的现实问题, 也让我们有机会重新思考旅游业在未来几十年会是什么样子。演化经济地理学的核心概念尤其是路径依赖/创造和制度惯性/创新, 为旅行和旅游业在新冠病毒疫情影响下的发展提供了路径变量。如果旅游需求和旅游供给都有足够的制度创新培育出新路径, 旅游转型就可以实现。新冠病毒疫情为在制度层面上推动转型提供了一次千载难逢的机会。制度创新是否会引起旅游业发生根本性变化还有待观察, 但未来几年旅游业的需求和供给所受到的影响将是长期性、渐进性的, 旅游业最终会逐步走向转型。

Keywords:

• COVID-19
• evolutionary economic geography
• path dependence
• pathways
• reset
• tourism
• transformation

关键词:

• 新型冠状病毒疾病
• 演化经济地理学
• 路径依赖
• 路径
• 重置
• 旅游
• 转型

Acknowledgements

The Vancouver Island University community acknowledges and thanks the Snuneymuxw, Quw’utsun, Tla’Amin, Snaw-naw-as and Qualicum First Nation on whose traditional lands we teach, learn, research, live and share knowledge.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Patrick Brouder

Patrick Brouder is the British Columbia Regional Innovation Chair for Tourism and Sustainable Rural Development. He also serves as Chair of the Economic Geography Group of the Canadian Association of Geographers and on the Steering Committee of the International Polar Tourism Research Network. Patrick is the 2020 recipient of the Roy Wolfe Award for outstanding contributions to the field and discipline of recreation, tourism and sport geography.