INTENTIONS TO MIGRATE WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION: A CHALLENGE FOR SIMPLE ECONOMIC MACRO-LEVEL EXPLANATIONS

ABSTRACT

Individual mobility within the European Union has remained rather low, in spite of large socio-economical differences and the lack of political restrictions for citizens of member states. Taking this as a starting point, this paper sets out to develop a more appropriate view by combing aspects of economic and sociological migration theories both at the macro and micro levels. For this purpose, the Eurobarometer survey 54.2 of 2001 is analysed by applying a three-level regression. Therefore, different characteristics of 15 European countries, 196 nuts-2-regions and about 7,000 respondents aged younger than 45 years are considered. Analyses show that the assumption of push-and-pull models – namely, that people leave less developed places – applies only within countries. In fact, the highest migration intentions can be observed in regions with a developmental gap compared to the overall level of a country. But between countries, the effect is quite the opposite – the highest intentions can be found in highly developed countries. However, the explanatory power of macro-level variables is rather low compared to that of individual characteristics. Therefore, research should place more emphasis on individual characteristics, to estimate a migration potential more accurately.

Keywords:

• migration
• mobility
• multilevel
• European Union

Notes

¹As one reviewer mentioned correctly, the dependent variable need not be interval scaled from a geographical point of view. Here, I am assuming that the ‘mental’ distances for respondents are close to an interval scale.