The Eurasian Economic Union – keeping up with the EU and China

ABSTRACT

Among the numerous Eurasian regional organisations (ROs) founded since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) sticks out as the first comprehensive economic integration agreement, in which member states give up sovereignty in the area of external trade. For the first time, Russia foregoes its veto power in one of the bodies of the EAEU. This is especially puzzling given that all EAEU member states are non-democratic regimes, which usually do not enter agreements that limit their room for manoeuvre and opportunities to control rents. This article investigates the reasons for why Russia opted for the deepening of regional integration and relinquished sovereignty to the regional level. The article contends that autocratic states create ROs to mitigate threats to regime survival and stability. If the leading state, which initiates and sponsors the creation of ROs, perceives threats to its survival as grave enough and the RO promises adequate remedies, it will be willing to agree to compromises and side payments. Drawing on a sample of speeches and official statements as well as on a series of elite interviews, the analysis proves that the EAEU is a means of regime survival in light of Russia’s perceived encirclement by China and the EU.

KEY WORDS:

• Eurasian integration
• Eurasian Economic Union
• Russia
• regional organisations
• governance
• authoritarianism

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Appendix

Appendix A: List of Analysed Speeches, Statements, and Foreign Policy Documents

Foreign Policy Concepts:

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MID) of the Russian Federation, 2008: The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2008, http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MID) of the Russian Federation, 2013: The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2013, http://www.mid.ru/en_GB/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MID) of the Russian Federation, 2016: The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation 2016, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248 (last accessed 4.2.19).

President of the Russian Federation 2015: The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029 (last accessed 21.1.19).

Speeches and Statements by the President:

Medvedev, Dmitry 2008a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/1968 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2008b: Inauguration speech, https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/dmitrymedvedev.htm (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2008c: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/345 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2009a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/5979 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2009b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/4336 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2010a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/9637 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2010b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/47910 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2010c: Press statement following meetings of the Customs Union Supreme Governing Body and the Eurasian Economic Community Interstate Council, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/9764 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2011a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/14088 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2011b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/11601 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2011c: Press statement following meeting with the Presidents of Kazakhstan and Belarus, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/13581 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2011d: Press statement following meetings of the Customs Union Supreme Governing Body and the Eurasian Economic Community Interstate Council, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/14056 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2012a: Speech at the Summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the Eurasian Economic Community Interstate Council, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/14806 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Medvedev, Dmitry 2012b: Press statement following meetings of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council and the Eurasian Economic Community Interstate Council, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/14807 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2007a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24203 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2007b: Speech at the Munich Security Conference, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2007c: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24337 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2007d: Annual Press Conference with the Russian and Foreign Media, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24026 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2011a: A new integration project for Eurasia: The future in the making, in: Izvestiya, 3 October 2011, https://russiaeu.ru/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasia-future-making-izvestia-3- (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2012a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/17118 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2012b: Inauguration Speech, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/15224 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2012c: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/15709 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/19825 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/18383 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013c: Speech at Valdai International Discussion Club, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013d: Speech at Summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, October, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19484 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013e: Press statement following the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, October, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/19485 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013f: Speech at Summit of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, December, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/19917 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2013g: Press statement following the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, December, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/19918 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/47173 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/21080 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014c: Speech at Valdai International Discussion Club, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014d: Annual News Conference, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/47250 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014e: Press statement following the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, May, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/45790 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014f: Speech at Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, October, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46767 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014g: Press statement following the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, December, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47318 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2014h: Address to the State Duma and the Federation Council members, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2015a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/50864 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2015b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49733 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2015c: Speech at Valdai International Discussion Club, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2015d: Annual News Conference, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/50971 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016a: Annual Address to the Federal Assembly, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/53379 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016b: Speech at Saint Petersburg Economic Forum, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016c: Speech at Valdai International Discussion Club, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016d: Address to the State Duma, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/statements/53027 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016e: Speech at Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, May, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49435 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Putin, Vladimir 2016f: Speech at Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, December, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53596 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Speeches and Statements by the Foreign Minister:

Lavrov, Sergey 2009: Press Conference on Foreign Policy Outcomes for 2008, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2009 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2010: Speech at the CIS Member States’ International Economic Forum, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2010 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2011: Speech at the 66th Session of the UN General Assembly, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2011 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2012: Interview on Russia’s role in the Asia-Pacific region, in: Izvestiya, 27 January 2012, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2012 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2013a: Speech at the Munich Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2013 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2013b: Speech at the Moscow International Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2013 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2013c: Speech at the the L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2013 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2014a: Speech at the Munich Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2014 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2015a: Speech at the Munich Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2015 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2015b: Speech at the Moscow International Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2015 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2016a: Speech at the Munich Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2016 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2016b: Speech at the Moscow International Security Conference, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2016 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Lavrov, Sergey 2016c: Speech at the 71st Session of the UN General Assembly, http://www.mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/-/archive/year/2016 (last accessed 4.2.19).

Appendix B: List of Interviews in Russia

During fieldwork in Russia from 15 February until 31 March 2017, I conducted 20 interviews in Saint Petersburg and Moscow with foreign policy experts, advisors, bureaucrats and staff at regional organisations. The interviews were done in Russian, English and German, depending on the interlocutor’s preference.

Notes

1. The post-Soviet or Eurasian region here refers to the 12 newly independent states, which emerged from the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) after its dissolution in December 1991: Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. The three Baltic states, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, also belonged to the USSR, but are no longer considered part of the Eurasian region as they have joined the European and transatlantic regional complex and do not participate in post-Soviet regional organisations. The terms ‘Eurasia’ and ‘post-Soviet’ region are used interchangeably throughout this paper.

2. Authoritarianism describes political systems, in which power is centralised, political pluralism is restricted, political freedoms are limited, and the masses are not mobilised (Linz 1970. p. 255). Authoritarian states are classified as autocratic, when power is not spread out between several officials and institutions (e.g. military officers or an entire party), but pertains to one person, the autocrat (Collins, 2009; North & Weingast Barry, 2009).

3. Freedom House, for instance, uses a scale of 0 (the least free) to 100 (the most free) to evaluate civil liberties and political rights worldwide. Countries can be placed into three categories according to their average combined score: free, partly free, or not free. In 2019, Armenia with a score of 51 and Kyrgyzstan with 38 were ranked as ‘partly free’. Russia (20), Belarus (19) and Kazakhstan (23) were ranked as not free with rather low scores (Freedom House, 2019).

4. See, for example, the rankings of the Freedom in the World Reports or the V-Dem Annual Democracy Reports from 2010 until 2019.

5. Member states claim that internal border controls have been removed and the free movement of goods has been realised. However, there are still exceptions and problems, as illustrated by Russia’s customs control vis-à-vis Belarus in 2014 and Kazakhstan’s closure of the border towards Kyrgyzstan in 2017, when hundreds of transporters with goods were not allowed to enter Kazakhstan for weeks.

6. Appendix 1 of decision No. 98 by the Supreme Council on the rules of operation of the EEC lists 32 ‘sensitive questions’, on which decisions have to be taken by consensus. In this list, there are mostly technical issues, such as decisions on temporary import restrictions or bans, the format of veterinary certificates or the confirmation of the methodology for compiling statistical information. On all other issues, the board adopts decisions by qualified majority.