To publish or not to publish: a systems analysis of longitudinal trends in publishing strategies of a human factors research organisation

Abstract

The goal of this study is to extend Rasmussen's framework for risk management to research organisations having to deal with reduced income from government funding and increased market orientation. One human factors research organisation was studied in detail. Using archival records, changes were studied over the period 1989–2010. The results showed an increase in income from market funding relative to government funding, and a decrease in written output. Predictions by stress–strain theory were confirmed in that during the first 5 years of the period under consideration, a linear relationship between the increase in market funding and written output was observed, whereas a nonlinear relationship was observed in the next 5–10 years, indicating a larger decrease in written output than would be expected. Generally, the results show that research organisations are adaptive systems that trade off resource allocation to either commercial activities or scientific activities, depending on incentive schemes.

Keywords:

• science of ergonomics
• human factors research organisation
• publishing trends
• systems analysis
• adaptive systems
• system resilience

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Jasper Lindenberg for initiating and funding this research, his comments on previous drafts, and his continued support over an extended period of time. Thanks also to Hein Daanen and two anonymous reviewers for comments on earlier versions and to Dymphie van der Heyden for assistance with searching the electronic records. This research was funded through the MOD-program ‘Smart Operations’ (V929).

Notes

1. Another possibility is that reports decreased in number but increased in length, possibly as a result of increased complexity of projects or multiple authors contributing. Using number of words rather than number of reports as the unit of measurement would, however, have been prohibitively expensive to carry out. It is also unlikely given that all publications, not merely reports, have decreased in number.

2. I thank one of the reviewers for this suggestion.