Military (in)decision-making process: a psychological framework to examine decision inertia in military operations

Abstract

When understanding how members of the armed forces make decisions in war current military doctrine centers on the military decision-making process (MDMP) – a linear process of identifying, evaluating and choosing the best course of action, while wider theoretical contributions focus on recognition prime models (RPD) of decision-making. In this article, we argue that the SAFE-T model of critical incident decision-making can elucidate the process of decision-making during military operations. The SAFE-T model states that effective decision-making follows a sequential process of situation assessment (SA), plan formulation (F) and plan execution (E) phases, and team learning (T). The central innovation of the SAFE-T model; however, is that it highlights the different ways in which decision-making can de-rail from this optimal strategy, resulting in decision inertia. This article discusses the implications of employing the SAFE-T model as a framework to study military decision-making both in the lab and in the field.

KEYWORDS:

• Decision making
• uncertainty
• decision inertia
• military decision making
• SAFE-T

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 .The OODA loop was developed by John Boyd (1996) and involves taking in observations of the situations (i.e., SA), making judgments of the situation and understanding what it means and deciding (i.e., PF) and action (i.e., PE).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Neil Shortland

Neil Shortland, Ph.D., is Director of the Center for Terrorism and Security studies at the University of Massachusetts Lowell. His research focuses on the intersection of psychology and security.

Laurence Alison

Professor Laurence Alison focuses on high profile critical and major incidents (from disaster management to terrorism). He has an international reputation and a number of high profile publications on the subject of critical incident decision making, interrogation of high value detainees and risk prioritisation of sexual and violent offenders.

Chloe Barrett-Pink

Chloe Barrett-Pink Ph.D., is interested in examining the impact of psychological and environmental factorson decision-making within critical and major incidents. Also interested in understanding the uptake anduse of autonomous systems to facilitate the decision making process in complex naval environments.