US Policy and the Geopolitics of Insecurity in the Arab World

Abstract

In the wake of 9/11, President George W. Bush downplayed traditional ‘realist’ security concerns by defining America's goal as countering threats generated by the internal characteristics of Arab societies. Bush advanced a strategy of regional transformation based on regime change in Iraq and economic, social, and political reform across the Arab world. This strategy, however, failed to address the security interests of regional governments while generating insecurity for Arab societies. To explain these results, the article develops a framework for understanding the Middle East regional system that recognises the role of societal discourses of insecurity and the system's multipolar structure. The framework is used to suggest an alternative strategy for US Middle East policy. Rejecting both a renewed project of regional transformation and a return to neorealism, the paper outlines a strategy based on managing a multipolar, pluralist system.

Notes

1. Michael N. Barnett, Dialogues in Arab Politics: Negotiations in Regional Order (New York: Columbia University Press 1998) p. 1.

2. As cited in ibid., p. 1.

3. On the concept of ‘offshore balancing,’ see John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics (New York: Norton 2001) Chapter 7. For a brief statement of US policy in the Middle East during the Cold War, see John J. Mearsheimer, ‘Pull Those Boots Off The Ground’, Newsweek, 31 Dec. 2008.

4. See, for example, The 9/11 Commission Report (New York: Norton 2003) pp. 361–363.

5. Thomas L. Friedman, ‘Drowning Freedom In Oil’, New York Times, 25 Aug. 2002; Thomas L. Friedman, ‘The First Law of Petropolitics’, Foreign Policy , May/June 2006.

6. Fouad Ajami, ‘Iraq and the Arabs’ Future’, Foreign Affairs 82/1 (Jan./Feb. 2003) pp. 2–18; Fouad Ajami, The Arab Predicament: Arab Political Thought and Practice since 1967, 2nd ed. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press 1992).

7. See Bernard Lewis, What Went Wrong?The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East (New York: Harper Perennial 2003); Peter Waldman, ‘A Historian's Take on Islam Steers U.S. in Terrorism Fight’, Wall Street Journal, 3 Feb. 2004.

8. For a survey, see ‘Beyond the Bush Doctrine’, Middle East Report 249 (Winter 2008) pp. 38–44.

9. See the article by President Bush's national security advisor, Condoleezza Rice, ‘Promoting the National Interest’, Foreign Affairs 79/1 (Jan./Feb. 2000).

10. Martin Indyk, ‘The Clinton Administration's Approach to the Middle East’, Soref Symposium, Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 18 May 1993, available at <http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC07.php?CID=61>.

11. Cited in Robert Jervis, ‘Understanding the Bush Doctrine’, Political Science Quarterly 118/3 (Fall 2003) p. 372.

12. See Gearóid Ó Tuathail, ‘Postmodern Geopolitics? The Modern Geographical Imagination and Beyond’, in Gearóid Ó Tuathail and Simon Dalby (eds.), Rethinking Geopolitics (London: Routledge 1998).

13. George W. Bush, ‘President Discusses War on Terror at National Endowment for Democracy’, 6 Oct. 2005, available at <http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2005/10/200> 51006-3.html>.

14. George W. Bush, ‘President Bush Presses for Peace in the Middle East’, Remarks by the President in Commencement Address at the University of South Carolina, 9 May 2003, available at <http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/05/20030509-11.html>.

15. Ibid.

16. Simon Dalby, ‘Regions, Strategies and Empire in the Global War on Terror’, Geopolitics 12/4 (2007) p. 589.

17. George W. Bush, ‘President Bush Discusses Freedom in Iraq and Middle East’, 6 Nov. 2003, available at <http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2003/11/20031106-2.html>.

18. Ibid.

19. Dar al Hayat, ‘U.S. Working Paper for G-8 Sherpas: G-8 Greater Middle East Partnership’, Al Hayat, 13 Feb. 2003, available at <http://english.daralhayat.com/Spec/02-2004/Article-20040213-ac40bdaf-c0a8-01ed-004e-5e7ac897d678/story.html>.

20. UNDP, Arab Human Development Report 2002: Creating Opportunities for Future Generations (New York: United Nations Development Programme 2002); UNDP, Arab Human Development Report 2003: Building a Knowledge Society (New York: United Nations Development Programme 2003).

21. Dar al Hayat (note 19).

22. Ibid.

23. F. Gregory Gause III, ‘Systemic Approaches to Middle East International Relations’, International Studies Review 1/1 (Spring 1999) pp. 11–31.

24. L. Carl Brown, International Politics and the Middle East: Old Rules, Dangerous (Princeton: Princeton University Press 1984) p. 4.

25. Ibid. p. 3.

26. Saul Bernard Cohen, Geopolitics of the World System (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield 2003) pp. 327–334.

27. Gause, however, notes that during periods of multipolarity, when many regional powers competed for regional influence, external powers have helped to protect the sovereignty of states from regional rivals and defeat the rise of expansionist regional hegemons, such as Egypt in the 1950s–1960s and Iraq in the 1990s. See F. Gregory Gause III, ‘Sovereignty, Statecraft and Stability in the Middle East’, Journal of International Affairs 45/2 (Winter 1992).

28. Avi Shlaim, War and Peace in the Middle East (New York: Penguin 1995) p. 17.

29. F. Gregory Gause, III, ‘Balancing What? Threat Perception and Alliance Choice in the Gulf’, Security Studies 13/2 (Winter 2003/2004) p. 274.

30. Steve Niva, ‘Contested Sovereignties and Postcolonial Insecurities in the Middle East’, in Jutta Weldes et al. (eds.), Cultures of Insecurity (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press 1999) p. 148.

31. Kenneth N. Waltz, Man, the State and War: A Theoretical Analysis (New York: Columbia UP 1954) pp. 174–175.

32. Niva (note 30) pp. 148–149.

33. Ibid., p. 151.

34. See Gause, ‘Sovereignty, Statecraft and Stability’ (note 27); Malik Mufti, Sovereign Creations: Pan-Arabism and Political Order in Syria and Iraq (Ithaca: Cornell University Press 1996). Michael Barnett provides an alternative constructivist explanation arguing that through their interactions states leaders were able to collectively redefine Arabist norms to be consistent with territorial state sovereignty; see Barnett (note 1).

35. Fouad Ajami, ‘The End of Pan-Arabism’, Foreign Affairs 57/2 (Winter 1978/1979) pp. 355–373.

36. Secretary Condoleezza Rice, ‘Remarks at the American University in Cairo’, 20 June 2005, available at <http://merln.ndu.edu/archivepdf/NEA/State/48328.pdf>.

37. Cited in Ussama Makdisi, ‘Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: An Interpretation of a Brief History’, The Journal of American History 89/2 (Sept. 2002) p. 538.

38. Ibid.

39. Rashid Khalidi, Resurrecting Empire: Western Footprints and America's Perilous Path in the Middle East (Boston: Beacon 2005) p. 26.

40. See Kenneth M. Pollack, ‘Securing the Gulf’, Foreign Affairs 82/4 (July/Aug. 2003); Marc Lynch, ‘Jordan's King Abdallah in Washington’, Middle East Report Online,8 May 2002, available at <http://www.merip.org/mero/mero050802.html>.

41. See polls cited in Shibley Telhami, The Statkes (Boulder, CO: Westview 2002) p. 98.

42. George W. Bush, ‘President Bush Calls for New Palestinian Leadership’, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 24 June 2002, available at <http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020624-3.html>.

43. As cited in Paul Richter, ‘Bush to Pitch a New Mideast Reform Initiative to Region’, Los Angeles Times, 3 May 2004.

44. Lynch, ‘Jordan's King Abdallah’ (note 40); Asef Bayat, ‘The “Street” and the Politics of Dissent in the Arab World’, Middle East Report 226 (Spring 2003).

45. Edward P. Djerejian (Chairman),Changing Minds,Winning Peace: A New Strategic Direction for U.S. Public Diplomacy in the Arab & Muslim World (Washington, DC: The Advisory Group on Public Diplomacy for the Arab and Muslim World2003) p. 15.

46. Marc Lynch, Voices of the New Arab Public: Iraq, al-Jazeera, and Middle East Politics Today (New York: Columbia University Press 2006); Marc Lynch, ‘Taking Arabs Seriously’, Foreign Affairs (Sept./Oct. 2003).

47. Lynch, ‘Taking Arabs Seriously’ (note 46).

48. As reported in The 9/11 Commission Report (note 4) p. 375.

49. As cited in David Isenberg, ‘Pennywise Commitment to Arab Democracy’, Asian Times Online, 9 Jan. 2003, available at <http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/EA09Ak01.html>. See also Jeremy M. Sharp, ‘The Middle East Partnership Initiative: An Overview’, (CRS Report for Congress #RS21457, 23 July 2003) p. 6.

50. See International Crisis Group, ‘The Broader Middle East and North Africa Initiative: Imperiled at Birth’, Middle East Briefing, 7 June 2004.

51. Juan Cole, ‘A “Shiite Crescent”: The Regional Impact of the Iraq War’, Current History (Jan. 2006) p. 20.

52. See, for example, Ray Takeyh, ‘The Lineaments of Islamic Democracy’, World Policy Journal 18/4 (Winter 2001/2002) pp. 59–67.

53. Alan Richards, ‘Testimony Before U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee’, 2 June 2004, p. 3, available at <http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/congress/2004_hr/040602-richards.pdf>.

54. Olivier Roy, The Politics of Chaos in the Middle East (New York: Columbia UP 2008) p. 33.

55. Ibid., p. 40.

56. Marina Ottaway and Thomas Carothers, ‘The Greater Middle East Initiative: Off to a False Start’, Carnegie Endowment, Policy Brief No. 29 (March 2004) p. 2.

57. Ibid.

58. As cited in Steven R. Weisman, ‘U.S. Muffles Sweeping Call to Democracy in Mideast’, New York Times, 12 March 2004.

59. International Crisis Group (note 50) p. 6.

60. Yahya Sadowski, ‘Not All Roads Lead to Washington’, Middle East Report 249 (Winter 2008).

61. See Nicholas D. Kristof, ‘Diplomacy at Its Worst’, New York Times, 29 April 2007; Nicholas D. Kristof, ‘Iran's Proposal for a “Grand Bargain”’, nytimes.com, 28 April 2007, available at <http://kristof.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/04/28/irans-proposal-for-a-grand-bargain/>.

62. Richard Haass, ‘The New Middle East’, Foreign Affairs 86/6 (Nov.–Dec. 2006).

63. Patrick Cockburn, Muqtada: Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shia Revival, and the Struggle for Iraq (New York: Scribner 2008) p. 117.

64. Morten Valbjørn and André Bank, ‘Signs of a New Arab Cold War: The 2006 Lebanon War and the Sunni-Shi‘i Divide’, Middle East Report 242 (Spring 2007) pp. 6–11. Some analysts have specially advocated that the US exploit the sectarian tensions, see Martin S. Indyk & Tamara Cofman Wittes, ‘Back to Balancing’, The American Interest (Nov.–Dec. 2007), available at <http://www.the-american-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=347>.

65. In a recent poll of Arab public opinion by the University of Maryland and Zoghby International ‘77% listed the United States as one of the two countries (behind Israel) deemed to pose the biggest threat to their security.’ Cited in Mona Yacoubian, ‘Bridging the Divide: US efforts to Engage the Muslim World’, Middle East Journal 63/3 (Summer 2009) p. 496.

66. Robert Worth, ‘Qatar, Playing All sides, Is a Non Stop Mediator’, New York Times, 9 July 2008.

67. Condoleezza Rice, ‘Rethinking the National Interest: American Realism for a New World’, Foreign Affairs 87/4 (July/Aug. 2008) p. 22.

68. Roy (note 54) p. 139.

69. For a survey of new writings about recent ‘neoliberal’ and neorealist policy alternatives, see ‘Beyond the Bush Doctrine’, Middle East Report 249 (Winter 2008) pp. 38–44.

70. Brown (note 24) p. 3.

71. As cited in Gerard Toal, ‘“In No Other Country on Earth”: The Presidential Campaign of Barak Obama’, Geopolitics 14 (2009) p. 394.

72. President Barack Obama, ‘Remarks by the President on a New Beginning’, available at <http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Remarks-by-the-President-at-Cairo-University-6-04-09/>.

73. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy (note 3) pp. 338–344.

74. J. Mearsheimer and S. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux 2007) p. 340.

75. See Shai Feldman and Abdullah Toukan, Bridging the Gap: A Future Security Architecture for the Middle East (Lantham, MD: Roman and Littlefield 1997); The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward-A New Approach (New York: Vintage Books 2006); Pollack, ‘Securing the Gulf’ (note 40). Note that only in the Feldman/Toukan effort are Arab (state) notions of security considered as equivalent with US and Israeli ones. But still none of these proposals engaged societal notions or human rights as the Helsinki process did. The 2009 Arab Human Development report comes close by addressing the notion of ‘human security’, see Marc Lynch, ‘Grading Places’, The National (Abu Dhabi), 30 July 2009.

76. Pollack, ‘Securing the Gulf’ (note 40) p. 13.