The Black Swan of elite football: the case of Iceland

ABSTRACT

Icelandic football has recently attracted widespread international attention. Iceland – with a population of 340.000 – is by far the smallest nation to have qualified for major international men's and women's football championships such as the European Championship Finals and the men's World Cup. In this paper, I argue that Iceland can be identified as ‘a Black Swan’ (something which is highly improbable and unexpected but carries extreme impact) in modern elite sports. Firstly, because it has produced extraordinary results against prestigious football nations. Secondly, because Iceland’s recent success is produced from a ‘none-elite’ sport system, which is built on different ideologies than is customary in the conventional youth sport academies of most nations. And thirdly, because Iceland’s recent success has highlighted weaknesses in the customary international sports model, which larger football nations are currently trying to restore more in line with the Icelandic way of organizing and playing sports.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. See Gregory, ‘The little country that could’; and a summary of front page coverages of Iceland’s success here: https://kjarninn.is/frettir/afrek-islenska-landslidsins-a-forsidum-midla-ut-um-allan-heim/.

2. Interestingly, it is not only the national football teams of Iceland that have been doing well in recent years, Iceland has been doing well in all its main team sports, such as basketball, team handball and team gymnastics. See in Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

3. Anderson and Ronglan, ‘Nordic Elite Sport’; Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’; and Collins, ‘Sport in Capitalist Society’.

4. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

5. For a long time, empirical evidence pointed to the fact that all swans were white. However, the appearance of a single black swan invalidated the general evidence that all swans were white. The black swan theory, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, illustrates the limitations and fragility of our common knowledge, when encountering black swans, and leads to the degradation of predictability of common ‘facts‘.

6. Taleb, ‘Black Swan’.

7. Ibid., xxii.

8. Ibid., xxv.

9. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

10. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; and Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

11. Honigstein, ‘Das Reboot’.

12. Taleb, ‘Black Swan’, 27.

13. Gregory, ‘The Little Country That Could’.

14. Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’, 1.

15. Becker, ‘Art Worlds’.

16. Mears, ‘Pricing Beauty’.

17. Csikszentmihalyi et al., ‘Talented Teenagers’.

18. See coverage of Kante here: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2704137-finding-ngolo-kante-the-men-who-discovered-the-pfa-player-of-the-year; and Griezmann here: https://www.netflix.com/title/81049949.

19. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’, 95–6; and Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

20. Difiori et al., ‘Overuse Injuries and Burnout in youth Sports’.

21. See the impact of conventions on that ‘status quo’ in Becker, ‘Art Worlds’ and in Mears, ‘Pricing Beauty’.

22. Zerubavel has argued how discourse manifests itself in unconscious action, see ‘Taken for Granted’.

23. Calvin, ‘No Hunger in Paradise’; Egilsson and Dolles, ‘From Heroes to Zeroes’; and Platts and Smith, ‘Health, Well-Being and Elite Youth Work’. see also: Chambliss, ‘Champions’.

24. Mears, ‘Pricing Beauty’.

25. See for instance the story of footballer Rio Ferdinand who was unequipped to deal with human intimacy with his children when his wife passed away. He partly blamed his football education, see ‘Thinking Out Loud’.

26. Abbott and Collins, ‘Talent Identification’; and Martindale et al., ‘Talent Development’; see also Mears, ‘Pricing Beauty’, 11–2.

27. See https://theconversation.com/how-the-search-for-footballs-next-big-thing-is-fuelling-a-modern-day-slave-trade-121350.

28. See Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’.

29. Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’, 2–3.

30. Calvin, ‘No Hunger in Paradise’; Doob, ‘Great Expectations’, 165–6; and Güllich and Cobley, ‘Efficacy of Talent Identification’.

31. Doob, ‘Great Expectations’, 244–55.

32. Musch and Grondin, ‘Unequal Competition’; and Hill and Sotiriadou, ‘Coach Decision-Making’.

33. Merton, ‘On Social Structure and Science’, 318–36.

34. Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’; Billing et al., ‘Paradoxes of Professional Football’; Egilsson and Dolles, ‘From Heroes to Zeroes’; and Vierimaa et al., ‘Elements of Talent Development’.

35. Hartmann and Kwauk, ‘Sport and Development’.

36. Blakelock et al., ‘Psychological Distress’; Gouttebarge et al., ‘Symptoms of Mental Disorders’; Sagar et al., ‘Success and Failure’; and Miller et al., ‘Dubious social skills’.

37. See Merton, ‘On Social Structure and Science’, 173–82.

38. See Egilsson’s and Dolles’s account of young and talented Icelandic footballers, ‘From Heroes to Zeroes’.

39. Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’; and Merton, ‘On Social Structure and Science’, 96–100.

40. Eitzen, ‘Fair and Foul’.

41. Green, Sigurjónsson, and Skille, ‘Sport in Scandinavia and the Nordic Countries’; and Tin et al., ‘The Nordic Model and Physical Culture’.

42. Anderson and Ronglan, ‘Nordic Elite Sport’.

43. See different accounts on the Icelandic sports model in Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; Halldorsson, ‘Sport Participation in Iceland’; Halldorsson, Thorlindsson and Katovich, ‘The Role of Informal Sport’; and Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘The Roots of Icelandic Physical Culture’. See accounts of different emphasis among the Nordic nations in Anderson and Ronglan, ‘Nordic Elite Sport’; Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’; and Tin et al., ‘The Nordic Model and Physical Culture’.

44. The descriptions above of the professional youth sports model on the one hand, and the Icelandic sports model on the other, are of course ideal types in a Weberian sense (see Weber, ‘Economy and Society’). They represent the general ways of doing things in the two different systems. There are variations in the ideologies of sport clubs in both systems where teams within the professional model emphasize healthy and constructive values and teams within the Icelandic model try to professionalize their youth sport to a greater extent than is customary in Icelandic sports.

45. See for instance: Anderson and Ronglan, ‘Nordic Elite Sport’; Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’; and Hill, ‘In Pursuit of Excellence’.

46. See favourable international press coverage of different elements of Icelandic sports: a) For positive development through sport see: https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/iceland-knows-how-to-stop-teen-substance-abuse-but-the-rest-of-the-world-isn-t-listening-a7526316.html; b) For sport performance see: https://kjarninn.is/frettir/afrek-islenska-landslidsins-a-forsidum-midla-ut-um-allan-heim/.

47. Icelandic youth seems to be happy within the sport club system. See Guðmundsdóttir et al. ‘Ánægja í íþróttum’ [Sport Satisfaction Survey].

48. Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’, 694.

49. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; and ÍSÍ, ‘Kostnaður vegna Afreksstarfs’ [Cost regarding elite activities].

50. See ÍSÍ, ‘Kostnaður vegna Afreksstarfs’ [Cost regarding elite activities].

51. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; and Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

52. Halldorsson et al., ‘The Role of Informal Sport’; and Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

53. Despite many similarities between the Nordic nations, which have been relatively successful in many sports through the years, they also differ in profound ways. For instance, all kids are coached by coaches in Iceland while parents tend to do the coaching in the other Nordic nations. Likwise, as Anderson and Ronglan have argued the elite sports systems in the Nordic nations differ to some extent (see ‘Nordic Elite Sport’) where Iceland in particular stands aside, along with Finland, because they have not developed professional football leagues like they have in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.

54. Most of the Icelandic national team players in recent years have thus played professionally abroad from the age of 17–18, which has helped them to gain more football expertise than they received in the Icelandic system – they were however brought up in the Icelandic Sports Model through their developing years. See also Magnusson, ‘Internalization of Sports’.

55. See in Green et al., ‘Sport in Scandinavia’.

56. Halldorsson, ‘Sport Participation in Iceland’, 89.

57. Ibid., 90.

58. Research dated back to 1992 to the present, from the population of Icelandic kids and adolescents, has consistently shown a positive relationship between youth sport participation in Iceland and their overall well-being. See for instance in: Halldorsson et al., ‘Sport Participation and Alcohol Use’; Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘Sport and the Use of Steroids’; Þórlindsson et al., ‘Gildi Íþrótta’ [Value of Sports]; and Þórlindsson et al., ‘Félagsstarf og Frístundir’ [Leisure and Social Activities].

59. See data from the European School Survey Project of Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) here: www.espad.org.

60. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; Halldorsson, ‘Sport Participation in Iceland’; Halldorsson, Thorlindsson and Katovich, ‘The Role of Informal Sport’; and Telseth and Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

61. Halldorsson et al., ‘Sport Participation and Alcohol Use’; Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘Sport and the Use of Steroids’; Þórlindsson et al., ‘Gildi Íþrótta’ [Value of Sports]; and Þórlindsson et al., ‘Félagsstarf og Frístundir’ [Leisure and Social Activities].

62. See accounts of Icelandic national sport teams in football, team handball, basketball and team gymnastics: Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; Halldorsson, ‘Team Spirit in Football’; and Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘Cultural Production’.

63. Bloom, ‘Developing Talent’; and Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

64. Miller et al., ‘Dubious social skills’.

65. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland'; and Telseth & Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

66. This argument rests on the fact that Iceland holds only semi-professional leagues and that the Icelandic athletes in the national teams are even playing alongside their childhood friends, see: Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

67. Halldorsson, Thorlindsson & Katovich, ‘The Role of Informal Sport’; and Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

68. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’.

69. Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; Halldorsson, ‘Team Spirit in Football’; and Telseth & Halldorsson, ‘Nordic Football’.

70. Merton, ‘On Social Structure and Science’, 318–36.

71. Taleb, ‘Black Swan’.

72. Representatives of countless football clubs from all around the world have visited the Icelandic FA and Icelandic football clubs in recent years with the intention of getting to know‘the secret’ of the Icelandic success and ways to adapt important elements of the Icelandic Sports Model to their own clubs and communities. Among them were representatives from FC Cologne from Germany, FC Copenhagen from Denmark, FC Stæbak from Norway, and coaches from the US. Soccer coaches association, to name a few.

73. See for instance: http://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-winning-team-spirit-at-the-world-cup-98421.

74. Representatives from Iceland have held presentations on Icelandic football in numerous countries all over the world and Iceland has further been visited by representatives from various football associations and clubs. Thus, the Icelandic model has in recent years been introduced to members of football communities of countries such as England, Ireland, Scotland, Belgium, Holland, Norway, Finland, Lithuania, Brazil, Chile, Suriname, USA, Japan and Mongolia, to name a few. Many of them have adjusted some elements in their system more in line with the Icelandic model. Here is an example of how the Icelandic system in influencing the ideology of football in Scotland: http://www.youthfootballscotland.co.uk/prolegal/item/4517-youth-football-worldwide-iceland.

75. Honigstein, ‘Das Reboot’.

76. See coverage of the press conference of the German FA here: www.trainingground.guru/articles/germany-focus-on-fun-and-joy-to-reverse-decline.

77. See in Ankersen, ‘The Gold Mine Effect’, 86–7.

78. Ford and Williams, ‘Sport Activity in Childhood’; Halldorsson et al., ‘The Role of Informal Sport’; Hornig et al., ‘German Top-Level Professional Football Players’.

79. Taleb, ‘Black Swan’, 204, 295.

80. This has been the general emphasis in the presentations of youth football directors in recent football conferences such as at the UCV 2017 and 2019 in Valencia Spain. FC Villareal is a particular interesting case where this trend is evident; See also Ward et al., ‘Does Talent Exist?’.

81. Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’.

82. Bloom, ‘Developing Talent’; Csikzentmihalyi et al., ‘Talented Teenagers’; Halldorsson, ‘Sport in Iceland’; and Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘Cultural Production’.

83. Côte and Lidor, ‘Early Talent Development’, 2; see also Abbott and Collins, ‘Talent Identification’.

84. See CIES ‘World Football Expatriates’ report which shows that Iceland tops the list of having most expatriates in professional football leagues.

85. Halldorsson et al., ‘Sport Participation and Alcohol Use’; Thorlindsson and Halldorsson, ‘Sport and the Use of Steroids’; Þórlindsson et al., ‘Gildi Íþrótta’ [Value of Sports]; and Þórlindsson, et al., ‘Félagsstarf og Frístundir’ [Leisure and Social Activities].

86. See Baker et al., ‘Talent Identification and Development’.