Looking forward, glancing back; competitive balance and the EPL

ABSTRACT

The formation of the English Premier League (EPL) in 1992 heralded a digital and financial revolution within the game. Broadcasting fees rose exponentially, clubs became cash rich and English clubs became attractive purchases for foreign investment. Our paper examines the change in competitive balance in the top tier of English football since the inception of the EPL, focusing on 56 seasons between 1964/65 and 2019/20. Our analysis shows that competitive balance has declined in the EPL era and that the league has begun to be dominated by a select number of clubs. From a sporting economics perspective, received theory suggests that such a decline could harm the product. If competitive balance continues to decline, the EPL may face potential future challenges from the attractiveness of the product to broadcasters and the continuing emergence of financially (and sporting) dominant super clubs leading to the potential of breakaway European super leagues, such as Project Big Picture.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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2. Deloitte, Annual Review of Football Finance 2020.

3. Critcher, ‘Professional Football in Britain’.

4. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’.

5. Morrow, The Peoples Game?

6. Plumley, Serbera and Wilson, ‘Too Big to Fail’.

7. Ibid.

8. Noll, ‘Broadcasting and Team Sports’; Allan, ‘Satellite Television and Football Attendance’; Baimbridge, Cameron and Dawson, ‘Satellite Broadcasting and Match Attendance’; Baimbridge, Cameron and Dawson, ‘Satellite Television and the Demand for Football’; Forrest, and Simmons, ‘New Issues in Attendance Demand’; Forrest, Simmons, and Buraimo, ‘Outcome Uncertainty and the Couch Potato Audience’; Forrest, Simmons and Szymanski, ‘Broadcasting, Attendance and the Inefficiency of Cartels’; and Garcia and Rodriguez, ‘The Determinants of Football Match Attendance Revisited.

9. Wilson, Ramchandani and Plumley, ‘Softening the Landing’.

10. KPMG Football Benchmark 2019.

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13. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’.

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15. Plumley et al., ‘Rising Stars’.

16. Groot, Economics, Uncertainty and European Football, 25.

17. Kessenne, ‘The Win Maximization Model Reconsidered’; and Zimbalist, ‘Reply: Competitive Balance Conundrums’.

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20. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’.

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23. Goossens, ‘Competitive Balance in European Football’.

24. Groot, Economics, Uncertainty and European Football.

25. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; Plumley, Ramchandani, Wilson, ‘Mind the Gap’.

26. Ramchandani et al., ‘Does Size Matter?’

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30. Michie and Oughton, Competitive Balance in Football.

31. Pawlowski, Breuer and Hovemann, ‘Top Clubs’ Performance and the Competitive Situation in European Domestic Football Competitions’; Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; and Plumley, Ramchandani, Wilson, ‘Mind the Gap’.

32. Ramchandani et al., ‘Does Size Matter?’

33. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; and Plumley, Ramchandani, Wilson, ‘Mind the Gap’.

34. Goossens, ‘Competitive Balance in European football’; Groot, Economics, uncertainty and European football; Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; and Plumley, Ramchandani, Wilson, ‘Mind the Gap’.

35. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; abd Curran, Jennings and Sedgwick, ‘Competitive Balance’ in the Top Level of English Football’.

36. Morrow, The Peoples Game?; and Plumley, Serbera and Wilson, ‘Too Big to Fail’.

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39. Wilson, Plumley and Maguire, ‘Premier League Giants go Hunting for a Bigger Slice of the Pie and it will Harm the Game’.

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41. Ramchandani et al., ‘A Longitudinal and Comparative Analysis of Competitive Balance in Five European Football Leagues’; Plumley, Ramchandani, Wilson, ‘Mind the Gap’; and Wilson, Ramchandani and Plumley, ‘Softening the Landing’.

42. Sass, ‘Glory Hunters, Sugar Daddies, and Long-Term Competitive Balance under UEFA Financial Fair Play’; Wilson, Plumley and Ramchandani, ‘The Relationship Between Ownership Structure and Club Performance in the English Premier League’; and Lang, Grossman and Theiler, ‘The Sugar Daddy Game’.

43. Vrooman, ‘Theory of the Beautiful Game’.

44. Ahmed, ‘“It was Utter Chaos”’.