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ABSTRACT
This article examines how the conflict since 2011 in Sudan’s ‘Two Areas’, the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, has been prolonged by a well-intentioned but counter-productive international response. The United States and other western countries, motivated by humanitarianism, imposed sanctions against Sudan’s regime and provided aid to rebel regions. This western response was fostered partially by disinformation – about the genesis of the conflict, the regime’s use of force, and the causes and extent of the humanitarian crisis. Western support incentivized the rebels to perpetuate their hopeless military campaign, which prolonged the displacement of an estimated one-third of civilians in the Two Areas. Only after the United States lifted some sanctions in 2017, and a popular revolution overthrew the regime in 2019, did U.S. officials belatedly identify rebel leader Abdelaziz al-Hilu as an obstacle to peace. The article concludes with lessons for ending the conflict in Sudan’s Two Areas and mitigating such civil wars elsewhere.
Acknowledgements
The author is very grateful to Cherie Saulter for providing the bulk of the research assistance, and to Caleb Cade for supplementary research. This research project was supported by a grant from the Policy Research Institute of the LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin; and by the U.S. Army Research Office grant number W911NF-09-1-0077 under the Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Department of Defence.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
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9. Gramizzi and Tubiana, Forgotten Darfur, 77–78.
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12. Carter Center, ‘Vote in South Kordofan’.
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15. UN Security Council, ‘Report of the Secretary-General’, 3, paragraph 10.
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104. U.S. Department of State, Sudan 2013 Human Rights, 16, estimates 975 ‘conflict deaths’ in the Two Areas in 2013 alone.
105. Ryan, ‘Report: Civilian deaths tripled’.
106. Chiaramonte, ‘Silent death from above’.
107. ‘Parachute Retarded Bombs’.
108. Amnesty International, ‘Civilians Under Attack’, 9–10. Small Arms Survey, ‘Conflict in the Two Areas’, 2.
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121. Radio Dabanga, ‘Popular Defence Forces intercept’.
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181. Africa Intelligence, 28 June 2021.
182. Lynch and Gramer, ‘The World Food Program’s Freelance Diplomacy’.
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185. Crawford and Kuperman, Gambling on Humanitarian Intervention.
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187. Kuperman, ‘Did the R2P Foster Violence’.
188. Stedman, ‘Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes’, 14–15.
189. Honig and Reichard, ‘Evidence-Fabricating in Asymmetric Conflicts’.
190. Kuperman, ‘Book Review – Conflict in the Nuba Mountains’.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Alan J. Kuperman
Alan J. Kuperman is a professor at the University of Texas at Austin. His books include Gambling on Humanitarian Intervention: Moral Hazard, Rebellion, and Civil War (Routledge, 2006), and Constitutions and Conflict Management in Africa (Penn Press, 2014). In 2013-2014, he was a senior fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace.