When truth is stranger than fiction: the Able Archer incident

Abstract

In November 1983 a routine NATO nuclear readiness exercise code-named Able Archer could have led to a Soviet nuclear strike against the West. What is remarkable about this possible Soviet strike is that it was perceived by the Soviets as a defensive and pre-emptive strike. Therefore, the Soviets somehow believed that there was an impending Western nuclear attack that they had to pre-empt. American rearmament, NATO missile deployment, and Reaganite rhetoric somehow convinced the Soviets that the nuclear endgame was near. These fears climaxed in November 1983 during a seemingly innocuous nuclear-readiness exercise by the West.

Notes

  [1] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 471.

  [2] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal.

  [3] The Single Integrated Operational Plan (SIOP) is the US strategic nuclear war plan. It contains a list of targets that might be attacked in a strategic nuclear war, and a variety of options to choose from for the actual deployment of weapons against designated targets.

  [4] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 87.

  [5] Gates, From the Shadows, 262.

  [6] Caldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 4.

  [7] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

  [8] Tertrais, ‘Do Arms Races Matter’, 125.

  [9] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [10] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [11] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [12] Oberdorfer, From the Cold War to a New Era, 65.

 [13] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [14] Bracken, The Command and Control, 42.

 [15] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 68.

 [16] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 86–7.

 [17] Ball, ‘Revising the SIOP’, 88.

 [18] Kokoshin, Soviet Strategic Thought, 132.

 [19] Bracken, The Command and Control, 41.

 [20] Kokoshin, Soviet Strategic Thought, 180–3.

 [21] Nunlist, ‘Cold War Generals’.

 [22] Bracken, The Command and Control, 47.

 [23] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [24] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [25] Caldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 5.

 [26] Fischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 91.

 [27] Snyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 142–6.

 [28] Snyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’.

 [29] Snyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 146.

 [30] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 463.

 [31] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [32] Kennedy, ‘War Games’.

 [33] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 267.

 [34] Kennedy, ‘War Games’.

 [35] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [36] Teague, ‘War Scare’, 71.

 [37] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

 [38] Teague, ‘War Scare’, 73.

 [39] Teague, ‘War Scare’, 72.

 [40] Gordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 262.

 [41] Snyder, ‘Civil-Military Relations’, 143.

 [42] Stein and Tanter, Rational Decision-Making, 32–8.

 [43] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [44] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [45] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 69.

 [46] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 267.

 [47] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [48] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 74.

 [49] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [50] KGB Directive of 12 August 1983, quoted in Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [51] Fischer, A Cold War Conundrum.

 [52] Fischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 97.

 [53] Pry, War Scare, 10.

 [54] Pry, War Scare, 10.

 [55] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [56] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 268.

 [57] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 271.

 [58] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [59] Jervis, Perception and Misperception, 129.

 [60] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 471.

 [61] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [62] Fischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [63] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 69.

 [64] Gordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 261.

 [65] Fischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [66] Wolf, Man Without a Face, 222.

 [67] Fischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [68] Ermarth, ‘Observations on the “War Scare”’.

 [69] Fischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 98.

 [70] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 472.

 [71] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 473.

 [72] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [73] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 85.

 [74] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [75] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

 [76] Pry, War Scare, 37.

 [77] Oberdorfer, From the Cold War, 64.

 [78] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 3–4.

 [79] Ayres, ‘Defence Dept Says’.

 [80] Fischer, ‘A Cold War Conundrum’.

 [81] Oberdorfer, From the Cold War, 65.

 [82] Howe, Conflict of Loyalty, 350.

 [83] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [84] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 123.

 [85] Winik, On the Brink, 290.

 [86] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 269.

 [87] Der Derian, ‘The Value of Security’.

 [88] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 476.

 [89] Winik, On the Brink, 290.

 [90] Howe, Conflict of Loyalty, 350.

 [91] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 475.

 [92] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 86.

 [93] Andrew, For the President's Eyes Only, 476.

 [94] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 129.

 [95] Gates, From the Shadows 272.

 [96] Pry, War Scare, 42.

 [97] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 87.

 [98] Gordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 272.

 [99] Walker, The Cold War, 277.

[100] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 270.

[101] Gates, From the Shadows 271.

[102] Pry, War Scare, 34.

[103] Walker, The Cold War, 227.

[104] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 123.

[105] Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov's Instructions, 88.

[106] Dorril, MI6, 749.

[107] Dorril, MI6, 742–3.

[108] Dorril, MI6, 743.

[109] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[110] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[111] Winik, On the Brink, 200.

[112] Ball, ‘Improving Communications Links’, 157 – see article for a list of reported uses of the direct communications link.

[113] Gordievsky, Next Stop Execution, 377.

[114] Director of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[115] Ermarth, ‘Observations on the “War Scare”’.

[116] Schwendener, ‘NATO was spied upon’.

[117] Mastny, ‘The New History’, 81.

[118] Gates, From the Shadows, 273.

[119] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[120] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[121] Director of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[122] Mastny, ‘Did East German Spies’.

[123] Fischer, ‘Intelligence and Disaster-Avoidance’, 89.

[124] Director of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[125] Schwendener, ‘NATO was spied upon’.

[126] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal.

[127] Rogers, ‘International Security’.

[128] Reagan, An American Life, 588.

[129] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 137.

[130] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 135.

[131] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 4.

[132] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 137.

[133] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 5.

[134] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 148.

[135] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 1.

[136] Caldwell and Legvold, ‘Reagan through Soviet Eyes’, 21.

[137] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 110.

[138] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 266.

[139] Fischer, The Reagan Reversal, 132.

[140] Brook-Shepherd, The Storm Birds, 270.

[141] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.

[142] Director of Central Intelligence, ‘Implications of Recent’.

[143] Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, ‘Operation RYAN’.