The global effects of nuclear winter: science and antinuclear protest in the United States and the Soviet Union during the 1980s

Abstract

During the 1980s, Carl Sagan and other scientists used the theory of nuclear winter to criticize the arms race. Historians have largely dismissed nuclear winter as a political movement. In fact, nuclear winter influenced debate over nuclear weapons in the United States, despite contentious scientific and political arguments. In addition, an analysis of nuclear winter's reception in the Soviet Union reveals that the theory resonated on both sides of the Iron Curtain. The global debate over nuclear winter shows the potency of scientific arguments against nuclear weapons during the Cold War, and demonstrates the complex relationship between science and politics.

Notes

¹ Lawrence Wittner, Toward Nuclear Abolition: A History of the World Nuclear Disarmament Movement, 1971 to the Present (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2003), 133–39, 168.

² ‘Washington Forum on the World-Wide Consequences of Nuclear War’, Disarmament: A Periodic Review by the United Nations, VII, No. 3, Autumn 1984, 39; Philip Shabecoff, ‘U.S.-Soviet Panel Sees No Hope in an Atomic War’, New York Times, 9 December 1983, A13.

³ Sagan, The Varieties of Scientific Experience: A Personal View of the Search for God (New York: Penguin, 2006), 195.

⁴ Sagan and Richard Turco, A Path Where No Man Thought: Nuclear Winter and the End of the Arms Race (New York: Random House, 1990), 95–101.

⁵ Paul Ehrlich et al., The Cold and the Dark: The World after Nuclear War (New York: Norton, 1984), 3–4, 88; Sagan and Turco, Path, 39.

⁶ U.S. Congress, The Consequences of Nuclear War. Hearings, 11–12 July 1984, (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1986), 4–11.

⁷ Brodsky to Chazov, 13 April 1985, Box 31, Folder: Cathy Fitzpatrick Files (hereafter CFF): USSR: Moscow Trust Group—Documents, 1985–1986, Series III: CFF, Human Rights Watch Records, Butler Library, Columbia University (hereafter HRWR). Yori to Popov, 4 August 1985, S1A-85-8-4-1, European Nuclear Disarmament Papers, LSE Library, London School of Economics (hereafter ENDP).

⁸ Roderic Pitty, ‘A brief report on the situation of the MOSCOW TRUST GROUP’, November 23, 1985, S1-85-11-23-1, ENDP; Peter Murphy, letter, 12 September 1985, S1B-85-9-12-1, ENDP.

⁹ Keay Davidson, Carl Sagan: A Life (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1999), 354–80; William Poundstone, Carl Sagan: A Life in the Cosmos (New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1999), 292–367; Lawrence Badash, ‘Nuclear Winter: Scientists in the Political Arena’, Physics in Perspective, 3, 2001, 76–105; Badash, A Nuclear Winter's Tale: Science and Politics in the 1980s (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2009).

¹⁰ Sagan, ‘The Nuclear Winter’, Parade, 30 October 1983.

¹¹ Sagan and Turco, Path, 95–101; Luis Alvarez et al., ‘Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinction’, Science, 208, No. 4448 (6 June 1980), 1095–108; Ambio, 1982, 114–25.

¹² Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagan, ‘Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions’, Science, 222, No. 4630 (23 December 1983), 1283–92.

¹³ Ehrlich et al., Cold, xviii, 35; TTAPS, ‘Nuclear Winter’, and Ehrlich et al., ‘Long-Term Biological Consequences of Nuclear War’, Science, 222, No. 4630 (23 December 1983), 1299.

¹⁴ Sagan, ‘Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications’, Foreign Affairs, Winter 1983/84, 276, 292. Emphasis in original.

¹⁵ ‘The Winter After the Bomb,’ New York Times, 6 November 1983, E20.

¹⁶ Wittner, Abolition, 113, 117–20.

¹⁷ William Broad, Review 7, New York Times, 12 August 1984, BR21. Folder 22.26: Nuclear Winter, Box 22, Hans Bethe Papers, Kroch Library, Cornell University (hereafter HBP); Davidson, Sagan, 377–78.

¹⁸ ‘Open Letter to the General Synod of the Church of England’, 15 November 1984, doc. 73, Christian CND, Additions (I), Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament Papers, London School of Economics.

¹⁹ ‘Introduction’, ENDpapers Eight, Spokesman 46, Summer 1984, 1. END French Group Newsletter, 3, No. 2, September 1985, ENDP; Sagan and Turco, Path, 181.

²⁰ Singer, ‘The Big Chill? Challenging a Nuclear Scenario’, Wall Street Journal, 3 February 1984, 22; Singer, ‘Nuclear Winter and Nuclear Freeze’, Disarmament: A Periodic Review by the United Nations, VII, No. 3, Autumn 1984, 63–71.

²¹ ‘The Chilling Aftermath of a Nuclear War’, Congressional Record, Senate, 23 February 1984, 3083.

²² John Maddox, ‘From Santorini to Armageddon’, Nature, 307, 12 January 1984, 107; Maddox, ‘Nuclear winter not yet established’, Nature, 308, 1 March 1984, 11. Emphasis in original.

²³ Tom Reuter, ‘Telling all’, Nature, 311, 25 October 1984, 700; A.D. Brown, ‘Teller's cold comfort’, Nature, 312, 13 December 1984, 587; Valmore LaMarche Jr. and Katherine Hirschboeck, ‘Nuclear war models’, Nature, 309, 17 May 1984, 203; William Bown, Jan Peczkis, ‘Nuclear war—counting the cost’, Nature, 310, 9 August 1984, 455; Alan Robock, ‘Snow and ice feedbacks prolong effects of nuclear winter’, Nature, 310, 23 August 1984, 667, 670; Jonathan Katz, ‘Atmospheric humidity in the nuclear winter’, Nature, 311, 4 October 1984, 417; Singer and Starley Thompson et al., ‘Is the “nuclear winter” real?’ Nature, 310, 23 August 1984, 625.

²⁴ Bethe, memo to TTAPS, 1 August 1983, Folder: 22.8: Nuclear Winter continued, Box 22, HBP.

²⁵ Eric Jones to C.F. Keller, 13 March 1986, and Jones to Bethe, 13 March 1986, Folder 22.26: Nuclear Winter, Box 22, HBP. Robert Malone et al., ‘Influence of Solar Heating and Precipitation Scavenging on the Simulated Lifetime of Post-Nuclear War Smoke’, Science, 18 October 1985, 230, 317–19; Eric Pitcher et al., ‘January and July Simulations with a Spectral General Circulation Model’, and V. Ramanathan et al., ‘The Response of a Spectral General Circulation Model to Refinements in Radiative Processes’, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 40, No. 3, March 1983, 580–630; and Malone et al., ‘Nuclear Winter: Three-Dimensional Simulations Including Interactive Transport, Scavenging, and Solar Heating of Smoke’, Journal of Geophysical Research, 20 January 1986, 91, No. D1, 1039–53. John Birks, ‘The end of innocence,’ Nature, 349, 7 February 1991, 472; Rex Dalton, ‘What happens when two nations battle with nukes?’ Nature online, 12 December 2006; Harvey Leifert, ‘Extreme events: Climate catastrophe,’ Nature Reports: Climate Change, 4, September 2007, 50. Badash, Winter's, 316.

²⁶ U.S. House of Representatives, Nuclear Winter, Hearing, 14 March 1985 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1985), 81.

²⁷SCOPE 28: Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War, (Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, 1989, second edition), Vol. II, 490.

²⁸ Thompson and Schneider, ‘Nuclear Winter Reappraised’, Foreign Affairs, Summer 1986, 64, No. 5, 981–1005.

²⁹ ‘Nuclear Winter: A Forecast of the Climatic and Biological Effects of Nuclear War’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 1984, 40, No. 4, 2S.

³⁰The Cold and the Dark, Review by Joseph Smith, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 1985, 41, No. 1, 49–51.

³¹ Thomas Malone, ‘International Scientists on Nuclear Winter’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 1985, 41, No. 11, 52–55. Emphasis in original.

³² Mark Harwell and Christine Harwell, ‘Updating the “Nuclear Winter” Debate’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Octoberober 1987, 43, No. 8, 42–44.

³³ Teller to Sagan, undated, Folder: Sagan, Carl Dr., Box 283: Correspondence, Personal, Edward Teller Papers, Hoover Institution, Stanford University (hereafter ETP).

³⁴ Teller, ‘Widespread after-effects of nuclear war’, Nature, 310, 23 August 1984, 621–24.

³⁵ Sagan, ‘Confidential Draft: On Minimizing the Consequences of Nuclear War’, late 1984, Folder 22.25: Sagan, Box 22, HBP, 1–2; Sagan, ‘On minimizing the consequences of nuclear war’, Nature, 317, 10 October 1985, 485–88.

³⁶ Sagan to Teller, 23 February 1984, and Teller to Sagan, undated, Folder: Sagan, Carl Dr., Box 283: Correspondence, Personal, ETP.

³⁷ K.A. Emanuel, ‘Towards a scientific exercise’, Nature, 319, 23 January 1986, 259.

³⁸ ‘U.S. Congress Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future invitation’, Wirth invitation, 4 May 1984; Democratic Steering and Policy Committee invitation 9 May 1983; ‘Congressional Staff Briefing’; ‘Sagan–Teller Meeting Attendees’; Memo to Wirth; ‘Carl Sagan Dinner’, Box 196, Folder 3: Nuclear Winter, Timothy E. Wirth Papers, University of Colorado Libraries (hereafter TEWP).

³⁹ Telephone interview with Wirth, 24 January 2008.

⁴⁰ ‘Amendment to H.R. 5167’, Wirth et al. letter, 21 May 1984, Box 196, Folder 3: Nuclear Winter; ‘Nuclear Winter Interview Question Responses’, 5 December 1984, 3, Box 195, Folder 7: Nuclear Winter—Correspondence, TEWP; Congressional Record—House, 31 May 1984, 5089–100.

⁴¹Consequences of Nuclear War, 1–2, 56, 65, 75–76, 80, 86.

⁴²Consequences of Nuclear War, 99–102, 112–13, 116–19.

⁴³Consequences of Nuclear War, 130–31, 135–39; ‘Pentagon Aides Agree On a “Nuclear Winter”’, New York Times, 13 July 1984, A13.

⁴⁴ Sagan, ‘A Nuclear Theory That Can't Be Tested’, 29 December 1984, New York Times, 20; Jonathan Katz, ‘Nuclear Winter Effects Not Settled’, 5 January 1985, New York Times, 20.

⁴⁵ Broad, ‘U.S. Weighs Risk That Atom War Could Bring Fatal Nuclear Winter’, New York Times, 5 August 1984, A1; ‘Middle East Review’, New York Times, 12 February 1985, A10.

⁴⁶ Caspar Weinberger, ‘The Potential Effects of Nuclear War on the Climate’, March 1985, reprinted in U.S. Senate, Nuclear Winter and Its Implications, Hearings, 2–3 Octoberober 1985 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1986), 75–77, 83–85; Stephen Budiansky, ‘Pentagon says yes, it may happen, but “so what?”’ Nature, 314, 14 March 1985, 121.

⁴⁷ Letter from Wirth, 6 March 1985; Wirth et al. to Weinberger, 3 February 1986; ‘Statement—SCOPE Press Conference,’ 28 May 1987, Box 195, Folder 7: Nuclear Winter—Correspondence, TEWP.

⁴⁸ Badash, Winter's, 252–67.

⁴⁹ Badash, Winter's, 216–18, 226.

⁵⁰ Ehrlich et al., Cold, xviii; U.S. House of Representatives, The Climatic, Biological, and Strategic Effects of Nuclear War, Hearings, 12 September 1984 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1985), 7, 45, 52; Nuclear Winter, 34; Gale Warner, The Invisible Threads: Independent Soviets Working for Global Awareness and Social Transformation (Washington: Seven Locks Press, 1991), 10.

⁵¹ N. Zheleznov, ‘Symposium: Scientists Warn’, from Sovetskaya Rossiya, 23 December 1983, 5, III, 30 December 1983, USSR International Affairs, United States & Canada, A9, Box 34, Folder: CFF: USSR: Nuclear Winter/War, 1983–87, HRWR.

⁵² Wittner, Abolition, 268.

⁵³ ‘Academician Views Nuclear Disarmament Issues’, Izvestia, 11 July 1986, USSR International Affairs, 17 July 1986, CFF: USSR: Nuclear Winter/War, 1983–87, HRWR.

⁵⁴ A. Palladin ‘Staging a “Nuclear Winter”’, Izvestia, 28 July 1985, 5, III, 31 July 1985, USSR International Affairs, United States and Canada, A6, and ‘“Nuclear Winter” Possible from Conventional War’, 28 February 1986, AA3, III, 5 March 1986, USSR International Affairs, Arms Control and Disarmament, Box 34, Folder: CFF: USSR: Nuclear Winter/War, 1983–87, HRWR.

⁵⁵ ‘Excerpts From U.N. Speeches by Shultz and Shevardnadze’, New York Times, 25 September 1985, A8; Sagan and Turco, Path, 181–83.

⁵⁶ Reitman to Solomon, open letter, [1984?], CFF: USSR: Moscow [Trust Group]: Correspondence, 1983–1986, HRWR.

⁵⁷ Roderic Pitty, ‘A brief report on the situation of the MOSCOW TRUST GROUP’, 23 November 1985, S1-85-11-23-1, ENDP; Batovrin, ‘Dissidents Deserve Dr. Chazov's Nobel’, New York Times, 31 December 1985, A15. Wittner, Abolition, 221–222, 246; Warner, Threads, 78.

⁵⁸ Warner, Threads, 74–75; Wittner, Abolition, 178–79, 362.

⁵⁹ ‘Visit to Yuri and Olga Medvedkov’, 7 November 1985, S1-85-11-7-1, ENDP; Yori to Popov, 4 August 1985.

⁶⁰ Stephen Shenfield, ‘Discussion Paper for END and CND’, undated, S1-83-0-0-1, ENDP; ‘News from USSR’, February 1984, S1-84-2-0-1, ENDP.

⁶¹ Gerard Holden and Edward Thompson, ‘Protest for gaoled Soviet teacher’, END Journal, No. 3, 7; ‘Documents condemn Trust Group’, END Journal, No. 7, 7.

⁶² ‘Soviet Independent Peace Activist Vladimir Brodsky Tried’, CFF: USSR: Moscow Trust Group: Mailing to Members, 1985–1987, HRWR.

⁶³ Wittner, Abolition, 80–91, 228, 269–70, 360–61.

⁶⁴ ‘The Nobel Peace Prize 1985—Presentation Speech’. Nobelprize.org. 26 September 2012 http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1985/presentation-speech.html

⁶⁵ Medvedkova to Lubar, 11 January 1986, CFF: USSR: Moscow [Trust Group]: Correspondence, 1983–1986, HRWR.

⁶⁶ Batovrin, ‘Dissidents’.

⁶⁷ Andrew Orkin, ‘Soviet physicians against nuclear war: a PR ploy?’ Journal of the Canadian Medical Association, 130, 15 February 1984, 467.

⁶⁸ Conn Nugent, ‘The Nobel Peace Prize Winner is an Organization, Not a Person’, New York Times, 22 January 1986, A22; Medvedkov to Lubar, 19 March 1986, CFF: USSR: Moscow [Trust Group]: Correspondence, 1983–1986, HRWR. Emphasis in original.

⁶⁹ ‘Moscow Trust Group Update’, No. 6, 1986, CFF: USSR: Moscow Trust Group: Documents: 1985–1986, HRWR.

⁷⁰ Robock and Toon, ‘Local Nuclear War, Global Suffering’, Scientific American, January 2010, 74–81; Ira Helfand, Nuclear Famine: A Billion People at Risk (Somerville: IPPNW, 2012); Matthias Dörries, ‘The Politics of Atmospheric Sciences: “Nuclear Winter” and Global Climate Change’, in James Fleming and Vladimir Jankovic, eds., Osiris 26: Klima (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011).

⁷¹ Davidson, Sagan, 359, 379; Poundstone, Sagan, 346–47; Badash, Winter's, 307.

⁷² Poundstone, Sagan, 356–58; Davidson, Sagan, 389–92, 397.

⁷³ TTAPS and Maddox, ‘Nuclear winter to be taken seriously’, Nature, 311, 27 September 1984, 307.

⁷⁴ Quoted in Mark Hertsgaard, ‘Mikhail Gorbachev explains what's rotten in Russia’, Salon.com, 7 September 2000, http://www.salon.com/2000/09/07/gorbachev/