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ABSTRACT
Since the coup attempt of 2016, bilateral ties between Ankara and Tehran have witnessed a significant boost. Using and refining Steven David’s framework of omni-balancing, which argues that the conduct of foreign policy in Third World settings also takes stock of domestic threats to the regime, this paper explains this emerging rapprochement. The article argues that after 2016, the AKP’s foreign policy became increasingly predicated on regime survival, which was also reflected in Ankara-Tehran ties. This rapprochement was strengthened by both countries’ intersecting positions on the following issues (1) A mutual pro-Qatar stance in the recent Saudi Arabia-Qatar spat, (2) Mutual opposition to a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, and (3) Increasingly troubled relations with the US. Through a careful analysis of Turkish and Persian sources along with official discourses, this paper will expand on these key aspects of these significantly improved bilateral relations between both countries and will conclude with discussion of its durability.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Note on contibutor
Vahid Yücesoy is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Political Science at the Université de Montréal, Canada. His research deals with the foreign policy of Iran and Turkey, state-society relations in both countries, and Islamists in power. He is the recipient of prestigious scholarships such as FRQSC and CORIM. He is fluent in English, French, Turkish, and Persian.
Notes
1 Akbarzadeh and Barry, “Iran and Turkey,” 980.
2 Quoted in Yeni Safak, “Profesyonel katiller kendi sonlarını yazdı,” June 1,, 2010.
3 Tait, “Iran is our friend.”
4 Ünal and Ersoy, “Political Economy.”
5 See Delacoura, “A new phase,” 1, and Aras, “ Turkish Foreign Policy,” 1.
6 See Waltz. Theory, Chapter 6, and Morgenthau, Thompson, and Clinton, Politics Among Nations, Chapter 11.
7 Holsti et al, Unity and Disintegration.
8 David. “Explaining Third World,” 235–6.
9 Ibid., 236.
10 Ibid., 236.
11 Özbudun, “AKP at the Crossroads,” 156.
12 David, “Explaining Third World,” 239.
13 Mashregh News. “Rooz shomaareh ‘Bidaariyeh Eslami’ dar saleh 2011.” 3 January 2012, available at https://tinyurl.com/yy3nrqpx
14 Kellner and Reza-Djalili, “Iranian and Turkish Rapprochement,” 58.
15 BBC News. “Turkish reform vote gets Western backing,” September 13, 2010,
16 Al-Jazeera Türk. “Erdoğan’ın ‘Arap Baharı’ turu başladı,” September, 20, 2011.
17 Milliyet. “2 yıllık iç savaşın kronolojisi,” June 1, 2013.
18 Reuters. “Turkey tells Syria’s Assad: Step Down!,” November 22, 2011,
19 Akbarzadeh and Barry, “Iran and Turkey,” 985.
20 BBC Türkçe. “Erdogan İran’ı, Suriye’de ‘mezhepçilik yapmakla’ suçladı,” December 27, 2015,
21 Akbarzadeh and Barry. “Iran and Turkey,” 985.
22 Khabar Online. “Vakonesheh Erdoghan beh Tavaffogheh Hastei,” July 17, 2015, available at http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/437103/World/diplomacy
23 Jafari, “After tumultuous history.”
24 France 24. “Iran FM Zarif postpones Turkey trip at last minute,” August 11, 2015, available at https://tinyurl.com/yxjh9v58
25 Arabs Today. “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan : Turkey may give ‘logistical’ support,” March 27, 2015.
26 Reuters. “Turkey’s Erdogan plans to visit Iran but watching Yemen developments,” March 30, 2015.
27 Kenar “Mr. Erdogan.”
28 Soltani “Erdogan in Tehran.”
29 Dehghan, “Rouhani meets Erdogan.”
30 Kenar, “Mr. Erdogan.”
31 Iranian Diplomacy, “Vâghiyat, ettehâmat va farziyehâ dar tanesheh lafziyeh Iran va Torkiyeh,” December 13, 2015, available at https://tinyurl.com/y37d5lea
32 Ibid.
33 Inat, “Ekonomik İşbirliği Örgütü.”
34 Hürriyet Daily News. “Turkey eyes more Iran gas, ‘can’t cut off oil’,” October 18, 2013.
35 Kalehsar, “Beyond The Deal.”
36 Khajehpour, “Five Trends in Iran-Turkey.”
37 BBC News, “Turkey downing of Russia jet ‘stab in the back’ – Putin,” November 25, 2015.
38 Press TV. “President Rouhani urges Russia, Turkey restraint over downing of plane” November 25, 2015, available at https://tinyurl.com/yyrpl9u8
39 Aras, “ Turkish Foreign Policy,” 1
40 TRT Haber, “FETÖ’den kaç kişi tutuklandı? İşte bilanço”, January 2, 2017, http://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/fetoden-kac-kisi-tutuklandi-iste-bilanco-291583.html
41 BBC News. “Turkey coup attempt: Pride and fear one month one,” August 15, 2016,
42 Reuters. “Regional rival Iran expresses support for Turkey over coup attempt,” July 16, 2016.
43 Hunter, “What the Turkish Coup Means.”
44 Gülen, “Gülen has strongly rejected.”
45 Shine and Lindenstraus. “The Failed Coup Attempt.”
46 Mankoff. “A Friend in Need?”
47 Yetkin, “Turkey changes Syria policy”
48 SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research), a pro-AKP think-tank, claimed that Iran was following a neo-Persian policy in Syria. See Özkan, “SETA Uzmanı Can Acun.”
49 TGRT Haber. “Türkiye ile İran Halep’i görüştü”, December 16, 2016, available at http://www.tgrthaber.com.tr/politika/turkiye-ile-iran-halepi-gorustu-155580
50 Sevinç, “Turkey, Iran to continue.”
51 Azizi, “How US sanctions facilitate.”
52 Ibid
53 Trump’s Tweet dated June 6, 2017, stating the following: “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar - look!” https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/872062159789985792
54 The National. “The 13 demands on Qatar from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE and Egypt,” June 23, 2017.
55 Qiblawi et al, “Qatar Rift.”
56 Secretariat General of the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey “July 15 Coup,” 31
57 BBC Türkçe. “Darbe girişimi ‘Türkiye ve Katar’ı daha da yakınlaştırdı,” August 30, 2016.
58 Ibid.
59 Al-Jazeera. “Turkey and Qatar: Behind the strategic alliance.” February 1, 2017.
60 Girit, “Why is Turkey.”
61 Republic of Turkey “Turkey-Qatar Economic.”
62 Gulf Business. “Qatar withdraws ambassador to Iran,” January 7, 2016.
63 Doha News. “Qatar joins Saudi-led bombing campaign of Houthi targets in Yemen,” March 26, 2015
64 Seznec, “Sharing a Pot of Gold”
65 Osborne, “Qatar crisis”
66 Erdbrink, “For Iran, Qatar Crisis”
67 Kirisçi, Turkey and the West, 71
68 Dalay, “The limits of transactionalism.”
69 Yesil Logistikler. "Çatışma ortamı biter ve istikrar sağlanırsa Türkiye-Irak Ticareti 50 Milyar Dolara Yükselir,” August 6, 2014, available at https://tinyurl.com/yxpo6whh
70 Republic of Turkey. “Irak’ın Ekonomisi.”
71 Yeginsu and Timur, “Turkey’s Post-Coup.”
72 Rudaw. “A letter on the referendum: Demirtas encourages ‘open’ talk between leaders,” September 24, 2017.
73 Cupolo, “It’s Never.”
74 Tabatabai. “Iran and the Kurds.”
75 Financial Tribune Iran, “Evaluating Economic Impact of Shifting Iran-KRG Relations,” October 21, 2017, available at https://tinyurl.com/y4h8w84g
76 Rudaw. “KRG and Iran sign trade deals worth up to $200 million,” August 13, 2017.
77 Paksoy, “Iranian chief of staff.”
78 Daily Sabah. “President Erdoğan receives Iranian chief of staff with regional issues on the table,” August 17, 2017.
79 Rudaw. “Iran, Turkey warn Kurdistan referendum will cause ‘conflict’ in Iraq,” August 17, 2017.
80 Mehr News. “Shamkhani Estratezhiyeh Iran baraayeh moghabeleh ba estaghlaleh Kordestan ra tashkil kard” August 2017, available at https://tinyurl.com/y4zj5h28
81 Hürriyet Daily News. “Turkey’s top general Akar visits Iran amid Iraq crisis,” October 2, 2017.
82 Uyanik, “Turkey and the KRG.”
83 BBC News. “Turkey’s Erdogan to drop lawsuits against people who insulted him,” July 30, 2016.
84 BBC News. “Turkey targets Kurdish forces”
85 BBC News. “Turkey targets Kurdish forces in Afrin: The short, medium and long story,” January 22, 2018.
86 Nordland, “On Northern Syria Front Line.”
87 El Deeb, “US forces in Syria.”
88 Mlla Drwish, “Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch”
89 BBC Türkçe. “Erdoğan’dan S-400 açıklaması: Anlaşma tamam, defter kapandı,” April 3, 2018.
90 Majumdar, “Turkey Wants Russia’s S-400.”
91 TASS Russian News Agency. “Erdogan vows not to cancel S-400 deal with Russia despite likely sanctions,” March 6, 2018, http://tass.com/defense/992944
92 Ahval News. “Turkey condemns U.S. bill that could bar F-35 sale,” May 25, 2018.
93 Kheel, “Overnight Defense.”
94 Seligman, “Trump Blocks Fighter Jet”
95 Harris, “Iran sanctions update.”
96 Landale. “What do Trump’s words.”
97 Maloney. “Under Trump, U.S. policy.”
98 Wintour and Boffey. “EU sets course for US.”
99 Daily Sabah. “Erdoğan discusses nuclear deal with Iran’s Rouhani,” May 10, 2018.
100 These sanctions oblige companies doing trade with Iran to make a choice between the US and Iran, ultimately forcing many of them to withdraw from their contracts in Iran for the sake of not losing the opportunity to do business in the US.
101 Yakış, “US withdrawal from Iran.”
102 Elias, “Why Does Iran Fear.”
103 Sezer, “Despite rhetoric.”
104 Ibid.