Historic missed opportunities and prospects for renewal: Turkey-EU relations in a post-Western order

ABSTRACT

Turkish-European Union (EU) relations in the broader context of the transatlantic alliance have been one of the defining features of Turkish foreign policy in the post-war era. The article identifies elements of the cyclical nature of the relationship and missed opportunities, notably in the 1970s and the early 2000s, which have been costly both to Turkey and the EU. Domestic politics and crises both in Turkey and the EU have played an important role in shaping the long-term dynamics of this complex and mutually important relationship. The emerging post-Western order has contributed to the decline and recent stalemate in Turkey-EU relations. The article probes into the possibilities of a revival in Turkey-EU relations and consider whether the Russian war against Ukraine will create a new opportunity for a revival of the relationship as part of a new wave of enlargement, which was not on the agenda previously.

KEYWORDS:

• Turkish foreign policy
• European Union
• EU enlargement
• non-western global powers
• post-Western order

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank the editor of the Journal and the reviewers for their perceptive comments. I would also like to thank Mustafa Kutlay, Yalkun Uluyol, Meriç Ergündüz, Gülşen Doğan, İdilbike Kara, Alperen Şen and Hüseyin Kağan Erdoğan for their valuable comments and able assistance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 For a critical analysis of Turkey’s complex relationship with the West in the post-war period, see Kirişçi, Turkey and the West, which highlights the point that Turkey’s relationship with the Western Alliance and with the US in particular was never smooth and often had its tense moments. For a small sample of the vast literature on Turkey-EU relations from a historical perspective, see Müftüler-Baç, Turkey’s Relations; Eralp and Yurdusev, Türkiye ve Avrupa; Yeşilada, EU-Turkey Relations; Arıkan, Turkey and the EU; and Öniş, “Luxembourg,” “An Awkward Partnership,” and “Turkey’s Encounters”. For more recent developments in Turkey-EU relations, see Aydın Düzgit and Tocci, Turkey and the European Union; Müftüler-Baç, “Turkey’s Ambivalent Relationship”; and Reiners and Turhan, Unpacking the New Complexities.

2 Prior to 1967, the EU was known as the European Economic Community (EEC), and from 1967–1992 it was called the European Community (EC).

3 For further elaboration on comparison between Turkey and the Mediterranean trio during the 1970s and possible missed opportunities, see Öniş, “An Awkward Partnership.”

4 The significance of the Cyprus conflict and the implications on Turkey-EU relations of integrating the Republic of Cyprus into the EU prior to resolving the conflict on the island are explored by Yeşilada and Sözen, “Negotiating a Resolution.”

5 Valuable analyses of the major initiatives associated with the ‘golden age’ period are provided by Müftüler-Baç,“Turkey’s Political Reforms,” and Özbudun, “Democratization Reforms.”

6 For a more detailed treatment of the underlying dynamics of the Helsinki Decision, see Öniş, “Luxembourg.”

7 For further elaboration on the emergence of a pro-Turkey coalition in the EU towards the end of the 1990s, see Öniş, “Turkey’s Encounters.”

8 On the series of crises that the EU experienced and the challenges that this has created both for the EU itself as well as for Turkey-EU relations, see Öniş and Kutlay, “Global Shifts,” and Colta and Isernia, The EU through Multiple Crises. Kaya, “Right-Wing Populism,” also provides a valuable account how the rise of Islamophism and populist sentiments in Europe due to the economic crisis and and the migration crisis produced a deep negative influence over the already difficult trajectory of Turkey-EU relations.

9 On the process of ‘de-Europeanization’ in the second half of the 2010s and how Turkey progressively diverged from the EU norms on both the economic and political fronts, see Aydın-Düzgit and Kaliber, “Encounters with Europe,” and Yilmaz, “From Europeanization to De-Europeanization.”

10 For a good discussion of the ‘fairness’ issue in Turkey-EU relations, see Keyman and Aydin, “The Principle of Fairness.”

11 For detailed analysis of the dynamics of Turkish foreign policy in the emerging post-Western or post-liberal international order and the growing importance of ‘strategic autonomy’ as a key principle underlying TFP in recent years, see Kutlay and Öniş, “Turkish Foreign Policy,” and “Understanding Oscillations.”

12 On the growing importance of the China-Russia axis for Turkey, see Kutlay and Öniş, “Turkish Foreign Policy,” and, “Understanding Oscillations.” For a valuable assessment of the strong partnership that has emerged between Turkey and Russia over the course of the past decade, see Kubicek, “Structural Dynamics.” On the growing importance of Turkey-China relations in recent years, see Öniş and Yalikun, “Emerging Partnership.”

13 For a powerful treatment of how Turkey drifted stage by stage into a competitive authoritarian regime during the course of the 2010s, see Esen and Gümüşçü, “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism.”

14 BBC News Türkçe. “15 Temmuz darbe girişimi: Türkiye neden ABD'yi suçluyor, Amerikan yönetimi ne diyor?”, February 21, 2021. Accessed on July 11, 2022, from https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-55952909.

15 TRT Haber. “15 Temmuz’da batı nasıl tepki verdi?”, July 12, 2018. Accessed on July 11, 2022, from https://www.trthaber.com/haber/gundem/15-temmuzda-bati-nasil-tepki-verdi-374909.html.

16 For a good discussion of Turkey as a ‘buffer state’, see Keyman, “Turkish Foreign Policy.”

17 Kaliber and Kaliber, “From De-Europeanization,” provide an incisive analysis of the process anti-Western populism has become a dominant feature ofTurkish politics and Turkish foreign policy in recent years.

18 The point about ‘unfair treatment’ has also been made about the Customs Union (CU) with the EU. Whilst most analysts acknowledge that Turkey has benefited from the CU over time, they also contend that there is a significant need for reform to eliminate some of the biases against Turkey, especially given that the possibility of full EU membership has dropped from the agenda in recent years. Particularly relevant in this context are Dawar, Hartwell and Togan, “Reforming and Renegotiating,” and Yilmaz, “The EU-Turkey Customs Union”.

19 The concept of transactionalism, meaning a pure interest driven relationship devoid of normative content, has been well explored by Bashirov and Yilmaz, “The Rise of Transactionalism.”

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Ziya Öniş

Ziya Öniş is Professor of International Political Economy at Koç University in Istanbul. He is the former Director of both the Center for Research on Globalization, Peace and Democratic Governance (2010–2013) and the Graduate School of Social Sciences and Humanities (2006–2009) at Koç University. Prior to his appointment at Koç University, he was a faculty member in the Economics Department at Boğaziçi University. His recent research focuses on the crisis of liberal democracy, the global populist wave, authoritarian reversals and prospects for democratization in the emerging world, the broad contours and trajectories of the emerging post-liberal international order, the political economy of Turkey during the AKP era, new directions in Turkish foreign policy, and domestic politics-foreign policy interactions. His recent work has been published in International Affairs, Turkish Studies, Alternatives, The International Spectator, Government and Opposition, and Third World Quarterly. He was elected as a Fellow of the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA) and received the prestigious TÜBİTAK Science Award in Social Sciences in 2012. He also received the Outstanding Faculty Award of Koç University in 2012 and the College of Administrative Sciences and Economics Outstanding Teaching Award for 2020–2021. He is the co-recipient of the Elizabeth Meehan Prize for the Best Article published in Government and Opposition in 2019.