Structural bias, polarized mediation and conflict resolution failure: a comparative examination of the disputes in Transnistria and Donbas

ABSTRACT

Under what conditions does conflict resolution fail? This article identifies several undertheorized factors hindering conflict resolution. It argues that structural bias, inadequate leverage and a polarized mediation format render negotiations ineffective, undermining the peace process. Durable peace settlements are unlikely when mediators become parties to the conflict, patronize the rebels, shape the domestic politics of the parent-states, and promote resolution plans advancing their security interests. The concepts of structural bias and polarized mediation are further explored by employing a structured focused comparison of the conflict management strategies in Transnistria (Moldova) and Donbas (Ukraine). The comparative examination revealed that Russia, as a power mediator, displayed a structural bias towards the rebel side but lacked sufficient leverage to impose a settlement on both parties. It attempted to increase its influence over Ukraine by getting entangled in the Donbas conflict, recognizing the secessionist regions and launching a conventional war against Kyiv.

KEYWORDS:

• Mediation
• transnistrian conflict
• donbas conflict
• conflict resolution
• Russia

Acknowledgments

I would like to thank Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Ümit Erol Aras and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and efforts towards improving the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Ion Marandici

Ion Marandici, Ph.D. (Rutgers U. 2017) studies economic inequality, secessionist conflicts, comparative foreign policy, democratization and authoritarian regimes. His publications include articles in Nationalities Papers, Problems of Post-Communism, Eurasian Geography and Economics, Demokratizatsiya, Journal of Soviet and Post-Soviet Politics and Society as well as chapters in collaborative volumes.

ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8568-9454

Email: [email protected] or [email protected]

Website: www.ionmarandici.com