Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants, best practices, and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

Abstract

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.

Keywords:

• climate change policies
• climate scenarios
• energy efficiency
• energy models
• GHG reductions
• India

Acknowledgements

We thank Arunabha Ghosh (Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India), Bhaskar Deol (Natural Resources Defence Council, India), David D. Doniger (Natural Resources Defence Council, USA), and Stephen O. Andersen (Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, USA) for their comments on the initial draft of this article. We also thank the industry, government, and civil society participants of the CEEW-NRDC industry roundtables organized with room air-conditioner manufacturers (3 July 2014) and mobile air-conditioner manufacturers (4 July 2014) in New Delhi, India, for their comments on our initial results. Finally, we thank participants at the CEEW-NRDC side event on ‘Business Case for Phasing Down HFCs in Room and Vehicle AC Industry in India and China’, held at the Montreal Protocol 34th Open Ended Working Group Meeting in Paris (17 July 2014) for their questions and comments on our draft article's presentation.

Supplemental data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1052954.

Notes

1. It should be stressed here that HC-290 can currently be used up to 5.12 kW. The majority of residential air-conditioner sales in the Indian market are for air-conditioners with lower cooling capacities, which can easily use HC-290. The main hurdle is the regulations limiting the HC charge. Except for the EU (for small systems and not for air-conditioners) and Australia, no other developed country has introduced HC-290 air-conditioners. The industry is currently working on reducing the charge sizes, which will impact the technical feasibility of the adoption of HC-290 in higher cooling capacities. In the future, with this and with better engineering of products for safe applications, this refrigerant might also be used in air-conditioners with higher cooling capacities. Our scenario with HC-290 in a way tests this limit by assuming that in the future it will be safely feasible to use HC-290 for all sizes of residential air-conditioners. The motivation here is to show the maximum possible reduction in global warming impact if the Indian industry adopts this refrigerant across all sizes.