The polarization of public concern about climate change in Norway

Abstract

This article contributes to the existing literature by investigating the importance of value orientations for the Norwegian public's climate change concern, by analysing data from a national Gallup Poll from 2003 to 2011. Logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the importance of individualistic and egalitarian values for climate concern, and whether the groups of different value orientations have polarized in their climate concern over time. Respondents who hold less individualistic values and those holding egalitarian values are found more likely to be concerned about climate change than are those holding individualistic and less egalitarian values. Furthermore, the analyses find polarization in climate concern in the period for both value orientations. Increased focus on policy instruments in the political debate may be one explanation for values being increasingly salient. Future research should focus on studying ways to formulate policies given variations in values. One way would be to develop solutions that have co-benefits across groups of different value orientations. However, not all mitigation policies have immediate co-benefits for everyone. Research on how changes in the institutional setting may enhance the logic of social responsibility seems crucial.

Policy relevance

It is an important social science contribution to increase our understanding of public positions on climate change for developing effective responses to this vexing problem. This study identifies polarization over time between subgroups of different value orientations in their climate change concern. This may have implications for policies, as political solutions may be increasingly dependent on the composition of political leadership. Society and politicians should look for mitigation policies that have co-benefits across groups of different value orientations when possible. However, not all mitigation policies have immediate co-benefits for everyone. One option then is to change the institutional settings from enhancing the logic of individual benefits to enhancing the logic of social benefits for behaviour crucial for mitigating climate change. Finally, narratives about a low-emitting society that are attractive for all groups of value orientations should be emphasized.

Keywords:

• attitude polarization
• concern about climate change
• public perception
• value orientation

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Arild Vatn, Kristin Linnerud, Hege Westskog, Jorge Hernan Garcia-Lopez and Anne Therese Gullberg for valuable comments and suggestions. Thanks also go to four anonymous reviewers for helpful comments, and special thanks to Ottar Hellevik for giving me access to the data analysed. The research was funded by the Research Council of Norway.

Notes

1. See Section 3 for definitions.

2. All political parties in the Parliament except for the Progress Party.

3. This year the Parliament decided to follow the EU target; see Gullberg and Aakre (2015).

4. See Figure A1 in Appendix 1, data from the media survey by Tjernshaugen et al. (2011).

5. The terms ‘greenhouse effect’ and ‘climate change’ show a similar development (Krøvel, 2012).

6. Norwegian Monitor.

7. All question formulations and response categories are reported in Appendix 2.

8. Between 1.07 and 1.79

9. Probability where b0 is the coefficient of variable x0.

10. The percentage of the sample scoring 11 and higher on the index was 31% in 2003, 29% in 2005, 28% in 2007, 27% in 2009, and 24% in 2011.

11. The percentage of the sample scoring 5 and lower on the index was 27% in 2003, 31% in 2005, 34% in 2007, 33% in 2009, and 36% in 2011.

12. The percentage of the sample scoring 2 and lower on the index was 16% in 2003, 14% in 2005, 13% in 2007, 16% in 2009, and 16% in 2011.

13. The percentage of the sample scoring 6 and higher on the index was 35% in 2003, 43% in 2005, 43% in 2007, 43% in 2009, and 43% in 2011.

14. See, e.g., Kallbekken and Aasen (2010) for an example of the importance of political value orientation for public attitudes towards environmental taxes in Norway.