The Role of Motivation in the Success of Coercive Diplomacy: The 1998 Turkish–Syrian Crisis as a Case Study

Abstract

Understanding the nature of state motivation in sponsoring non‐state armed groups is of great significance to the countries countering these sponsor‐states. An analytical understanding of this phenomenon entails comprehending its characteristics which is translated as its strength. Such an understanding is crucial because several coercing countries have failed to persuade their opponents, due to their strength of motivation, to comply with their demands despite their military superiority. Given the increasing number of states using coercive strategies, developing realistic and effective strategies by understanding the opponent’s motivation becomes all the more important. Despite its importance, although there are studies examining the underpinnings of the motivations of non‐state armed groups, only a few studies analyse the polymorphous character of the sponsor‐state’s motivations, let alone its impact on the outcome of the coercing state’s strategies. ¹

Notes

1 There are studies which are useful in understanding motivations of non‐state armed groups: Rune Henriksen and Anthony Vinci, ‘Combat Motivation in Non‐State Armed Groups’, Terrorism and Political Violence 20/1 (2008) pp.87–109; Gregory D. Miller, ‘Confronting Terrorisms: Groups Motivation and Successful State Policies’, Terrorism and Political Violence 19/3 (2007) pp.331–50; Robert F. Trager and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva, ‘Deterring Terrorism, It Can be Done’, International Security 30/3 (Winter 2005/06) pp.87–123; Daniel Byman, ‘Passive Sponsors of Terrorism’, Survival, 47/4 (Winter 2005) pp.117–44. Two important works on the motivations of sponsor‐states and coercive strategies: Daniel Byman, Deadly Connections: States that Sponsor Terrorism (New York: Cambridge UP 2007) and Daniel Byman and Mathew Waxman, The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might (Cambridge: CUP 2002).

2 Byman, Deadly Connections: States that Sponsor Terrorism (note 1), p.37.

3 Ibid. pp.26–52.

4 Alexander George and William Simons, ‘Findings and Conclusions’, in idem (eds.), The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy (Oxford: Westview Press 1994) p.287; Peter Viggo Jakobsen, Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy After the Cold War: A Challenge for Theory and Practice (Houndmills, UK: Macmillan Press 1998) pp.1–49; Peter Viggo Jakobsen, ‘The Strategy of Coercive Diplomacy: Refining Existing Theory to Post‐Cold War Realities’, in Lawrence Freedman (ed.), Strategic Coercion: Concepts and Cases (Oxford: OUP 1998) pp.61–85.

5 Fikret Bila, Hangi PKK? (Ankara: Ümit Yayıncılık 2004) p.29.

6 Michael Gunter, ‘The Kurdish Problem in Turkey’, Middle East Journal 42/3 (Summer 1988) p.401.

7 Nihat Ali Özcan, PKK Tarihi, İdeolojisi ve Yöntem (Ankara: ASAM 1999) pp.87–90; Oktay Pirim and Örtülü, Süha, PKK’nın 20 Yıllık Öyküsü (İstanbul: Boyut Kitapları 2000) p.49.

8 Ibid.

9 Author’s interview with former Ambassador to Syria Cenk Duatepe, 18 May 2007.

10 Kevin Freeman, ‘Water Wars? Inequalities in Tigris‐Euphrates River Basin’, Geopolitics 6/2 (Autumn 2001) pp.133, 136.

11 Robert Satloff, ‘Prelude to Conflict: Communal Interdependence in the Sanjak of Alexandretta 1920–1936’, Middle Eastern Studies 22/2 (1986) pp.148–51, 164, 173–6; William Hale, Turkish Foreign Policy (1774–2000) (London: Frank Cass 2000) pp.66–7; Rifat Uçarol, Siyasî Tarih (1789‐ 1999) (İstanbul: Filiz Kitabevi 2000) p.587.

12 Robert Olson (ed.), The Kurdish Nationalist Movement in the 1990s (Lexington: The UP of Kentucky 1996) pp.149–50.

13 Ercan Çitlioğlu, Yedekteki Taşeron: ASALA (Ankara: Ümit Yayıncılık 1998) pp.19–20; Özcan, PKK Tarihi, İdeolojisi ve Yöntem (note 7) p.51.

14 Kemal Kirişci and Gareth Winrow, Kürt Sorunu, Kökeni ve Gelişimi (İstanbul: Tarih Vakfı Yurt Yayınları 2002) p.130.

15 Gün Kut, ‘Burning Waters: The Hydropolitics of the Euphrates and Tigris’, New Perspectives on Turkey 9/3 (Fall 1993) pp.8–9.

16 Süha Bölükbaşı, ‘Ankara, Damascus, Baghdad and the Regionalization of Turkey’s Kurdish Secessionism’, Journal of South and Middle Eastern Studies 14/4 (Summer 1991) p.25.

17 Michael Gunter, The Kurds and the Future of Turkey (New York: St Martin’s Press 1997) p.65.

18 İsmet İmset, The PKK, A Report on Separatist Violence in Turkey (1973–1992) (Ankara: Turkish Daily News Publications 1992) p.176.

19 Gordon A. Craig and Alexander L. George, Force and Statecraft: Diplomatic Problems for Our Time (New York: Oxford UP 1983) pp.196–213; Robert J. Art, ‘Coercive Diplomacy: What Do We Know?’ in Robert J. Art and Patrick M. Cronin (eds.), The United States and Coercive Diplomacy (Washington DC: US Institute of Peace Press 2003) pp.359–420.

20 Author’s interview with former Interior Minister İsmet Sezgin, 20 Feb. 2006.

21 Ibid.; the interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity.

22 Author’s interview with former President Süleyman Demirel, 31 Dec. 2005.

23 Robert Olson, ‘The Kurdish Question and Geopolitic and Geostrategic Changes in the Middle East After the Gulf War’, Journal of South Asian and Middle Eastern Studies 17/4 (Summer 1994) pp. 45–6.

24 Özcan, PKK Tarihi, İdeolojisi ve Yöntem (note 7) pp.246–52.

25 Author’s interview with former Deputy Under‐Secretary Ambassador Gündüz Aktan, 4 Jan. 2006.

26 Author’s interview with Aktan (note 25); Murat Yetkin, Kürt Kapanı: Şam’dan İmralı’ya Öcalan (İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi 2004) pp.38–40.

27 Author’s interview with Aktan (note 25).

28 Ibid.

29 Ibid.; the interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity.

30 Author’s interview with former adviser to President Süleyman Demirel Mehmet Ali Bayar, 22 Feb. 2006.

31 Heinz Kramer, A Changing Turkey: The Challenge to Europe and the US (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press 2000) p.198.

32 Author’s interview with former Prime Minister Mesut Yılmaz, 22 Feb. 2006; Robert Olson, Turkey’s Relations with Iran, Syria, Israel and Russia, 1991–2000 (Costa Mesa, CA: Mazda Publishers 2001) pp.149–150; ‘Turkey eyes the Middle East’, Strategic Comments 10/6 (2004).

33 Author’s interview with Bayar (note 30).

34 ‘US‐Turkish convergence on Iraq hinges on Kurdish refugee question’, Turkish Daily News (TDN), 7 Feb. 1998; ‘Washington pressures Ankara on Iraqi crisis’, TDN, 5 Feb. 1998; ‘Vice Admiral in Ankara’, Anadolu Agency, 5 Feb. 1998.

35 Author’s interview with Bayar (note 30); David Butter, ‘Syria turns over a new leaf”, Middle East Economic Digest (MEED), 5 Sept. 1997, p.5.

36 Author’s interview with Yılmaz (note 32).

37 Author’s interview with Syrian journalist Husni Mahalli, 13 Jan. 2006; Eyal Zisser, Asad’s Legacy, Syria in Transition (London: Hurst 2001) pp.118, 153–4; Eyal Zisser, ‘Clues to the Syrian Puzzle’, Washington Quarterly 23/2 (Spring 2000) p.82.

38 Zisser, ‘Clues to the Syrian Puzzle’ (note 37) pp. 85, 88; Volker Perthes, Syria under Bashar Al‐ Asad: Modernisation and the Limits of Change, Adelphi Paper 366 (London: OUP for IISS 2004) pp.38–9.

39 Penny Young, ‘Syria gets closer to Europe’, Middle East International (MEI), 17 July 1998, p.4.

40 Butter, ‘Syria turns over a new leaf” (note 35) p.5.

41 Hisham Melhem, ‘Syria between two transitions’, Middle East Report 203 (Spring 1997) p.3; Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Raymond Hinnesbusch, Syria and Iran: Middle Powers in a Penetrated Regional System (London: Routledge 1997) pp.112–13; Shireen T. Hunter, ‘Iran and Syria: From Hostility to Limited Alliance’, in Hooshang Amirahmadi and Nader Entessar (eds.), Iran and the Arab World (London: Macmillan 1993) pp.198–213.

42 Neil Quilliam, Syria and the New World Order (Reading, UK: Ithaca Press 1999) p.178.

43 David Butter, ‘Economic recovery puts down roots’, MEED, 3 Jan. 1997, p.5; David Butter and Robin Bray, ‘Living without the peace process’, MEED, 25 April 1997, pp.3–4.

44 Jubin Goodarzi, ‘Syria’s quest for security’, MEI, 24 Oct. 1997, p.18.

45 Andrew Rathmell, ‘The encirclement of Syria’, MEI, 10 May 1996, p.19.

46 Ibid.; Donald Neff, ‘Money – the great lubricant’, MEI, 24 April 1998, p.8.

47 Author’s interview with Demirel (note 22).

48 ‘Suriye’ye Uyarı’, Milliyet, 17 Sept. 1998.

49 T.B.M.M. Tutanak Dergisi (Turkish National Assembly Minutes Journal), 1 Oct. 1998; ‘Sabrımız taşıyor’, Milliyet, 2 Oct. 1998.

50 Stephen Kinzer, ‘Turkey’s ties to Syria to sink to war in all but the name’, New York Times, 4 Oct. 1998; Ertuğrul Özkök, ‘Asker emir bekliyor’, Hürriyet, 3 Oct. 1998.

51 Interviewees speak on condition of anonymity; ‘Suriye sınırına yığınak’, Hürriyet, 1 Oct. 1998; Özkök, ‘Asker emir bekliyor’ (note 50).

52 Hüsnü Mübarek arabulucu’, Radikal, 4 Oct. 1998; ‘İsrail ile ortak kara tatbikatı’, Hürriyet, 6 Jan. 1998. The exercise was later postponed as a gesture to Syria when Öcalan left the country.

53 Sholomo Brom and Yiftah Shapir (eds.), The Middle East Military Balance, 1999–2000 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 2000) pp.45, 47, 73.

54 Ibid., pp.16–17, 27, 35, 102.

55 Interview with Yılmaz (note 32).

56 The interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity; interview with Gen. Rıza Küçükoğlu, 4 Jan. 2006; Brom and Shapir, The Middle East Military Balance, 1999–2000 (note 53) p.45.

57 ‘Ankara diplomatik atağa geçti’, Radikal, 8 Oct. 1998; ‘İyi ilişki için teröre desteğini kes’, Zaman, 8 Oct. 1998; Emin Çölaşan, ‘Mübarek ne diyecek?’, Hürriyet, 6 Oct. 1998.

58 ‘Turkish‐Syrian Tension conveys her resolution about the Syrian issue to Annan, the UN Secretary General’, Anadolu Agency, 14 Oct. 1998.

59 Interview with former permanent representative to NATO in Brussels Onur Öymen, 26 March 2007.

60 Interviews with former US Ambassador to Turkey Mark Parris, 6 Oct. 2006, and the former US Ambassador to Turkey between 1994 and 1997 and Deputy Secretary State at the time of the crisis, Marc Grossman, 20 Oct. 2006; Özcan, PKK Tarihi, İdeolojisi ve Yöntem (note 7) p.319.

61 Interview with Parris (note 60).

62 Ibid.; Butter, ‘Syria turns over a new leaf’ (note 35) p.5.

63 Author’s interviews with Parris (note 60) and Bayar (note 30); Yetkin, Kürt Kapanı: Şam’dan İmralı’ya Öcalan (note 26) pp.65–7.

64 Interviews with Parris and Grossman (note 60); the interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity; Harun Kazaz, ‘US suggests caution on the Turkey‐Syria front’, TDN, 4 Oct. 1998.

65 The interviewee spoke on condition of anonymity.

66 Rathmell, ‘The encirclement of Syria’ (note 45) p.19; Neff, ‘Money – the great lubricant’ (note 46) p.8.

67 Interviews with former MİT Member and Head of Counter‐terrorism Activities Mehmet Eymür, 23 Feb. 2006, Yılmaz (note 32) and Bayar (note 30); the interviewees spoke on condition of anonymity.

68 ‘Suriye’den geri adım’, Radikal, 3 Oct. 1998.