A Coercive Triangle: India, Pakistan, the United States, and the Crisis of 2001–2002

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Notes

1 Paul Kapur, Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia (Stanford UP 2007) p.106.

2 George Fernandes, ‘Opening Address’ [at a conference in Jan. 2000], in Jasjit Singh (ed.), Asia’s New Dawn: The Challenges to Peace and Security (New Delhi: Knowledge World 2000) pp.xvi–xvii.

3 National Security Adviser, Brajesh Mishra, cited in Steve Coll, ‘The stand‐off: how jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty‐first century’s first nuclear crisis’, New Yorker, 13 Feb. 2006, 〈www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/02/13/060213fa_fact_coll〉.

4 Harish Khare, ‘Govt. under pressure to ‘act’’, The Hindu, 15 Dec. 2001.

5 Atul Aneja, ‘Lashkar responsible for attack, says Jaswant’, The Hindu, 15 Dec. 2001.

6 Muralidhar Reddy, ‘Ready to act if Delhi gives proof: Musharraf’, The Hindu, 16 Dec. 2001.

7 ‘Armed forces weighing all possibilities’, The Hindu, 19 Dec. 2001.

8 Praveen Swami, ‘Gen. Padmanabhan mulls over lessons of Operation Parakram’, The Hindu, 6 Feb. 2004.

9 ‘We could take a strike and survive. Pakistan won’t: Fernandes’, Hindustan Times, 30 Dec. 2001.

10 Celia Dugger, ‘Indian general talks bluntly of war and a nuclear threat’, New York Times, 12 Jan. 2002.

11 Gaurav Sawant, ‘Nuclear wars are not meant to be fought, especially between nuclear powers’, Indian Express, 6 Jan. 2002.

12 Rajiv Chandrasekaran, ‘For India, deterrence may not prevent war’, Washington Post, 17 Jan. 2002.

13 V.K. Sood and Pravin Sawhney, Operation Parakram: The War Unfinished (New Delhi: Sage Publications 2003) pp.62, 73–4.

14 Alex Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’, Stimson Center Report (March 2008) pp.14–15; Jaswant Singh, A Call to Honour: In Service of Emergent India (New Delhi: Rupa 2006) p.268.

15 ‘Facing value trade‐offs is painful; no statesman wants to acknowledge that he may have to abandon an important foreign policy goal in order to avoid war or that he may have to engage in a bloody struggle if he is to reach his foreign policy goals.’ Robert Jervis, ‘War and Misperception’, Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18/4 (Spring 1988) p.693.

16 Singh, A Call to Honour (note 14) p.268.

17 Cited in Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’, Stimson Center Report (Sept. 2006) p.22.

18 Cited in Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) pp. 12–13.

19 Nayak and Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’ (note 17) p.23; David Sanger, The Inheritance: The World Obama Confronts and the Challenges to American Power (New York: Harmony 2009) p.221.

20 Coll, ‘The stand‐off’ (note 3).

21 Nayak and Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’ (note 17) p.25; Coll, ‘The stand‐off: how jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty‐first century’s first nuclear crisis’ (note 3).

22 Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) pp.14–15.

23 Sood and Sawhney, Operation Parakram (note 13) p.80.

24 ‘No Pakistani to be handed over to India’, Dawn, 13 Jan. 2002.

25 Coll, ‘The stand‐off: how jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty‐first century’s first nuclear crisis’ (note 3) ; Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) p.18.

26 Sandeep Dikshit, ‘India will not pull back till infiltration stops: Fernandes’, The Hindu, 24 Jan. 2002.

27 Celia Dugger, ‘India test‐fires intermediate‐range missile’, New York Times, 25 Jan. 2002. Also see, idem, ‘India tests missile stirring a region already on edge’, New York Times, 26 Jan. 2002.

28 ‘Nuclear safety, nuclear stability and nuclear strategy in Pakistan: a concise report of a visit by Landau Network – Centro Volta’ (Jan. 2002), 〈lxmi.mi.infn.it/∼landnet/Doc/pakistan.pdf〉.

29 ‘Musharraf aims to reassure on nuclear danger’, Disarmament Diplomacy 64 (May–June 2002).

30 Coll, ‘The stand‐off: how jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty‐first century’s first nuclear crisis’ (note 3); Nayak and Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’ (note 17) p. 31.

31 Shirish Pradhan, ‘Time for action has come: Padmanabhan’, Rediff.Com, 16 May 2002, 〈www.rediff.com/news/2002/may/16nep.htm〉.

32 ‘An act of frustration: Fernandes’, The Hindu, 16 May 2002.

33 Atul Aneja, ‘Pak. asked to recall envoy within a week’, The Hindu, 19 May 2002.

34 Swami, ‘Gen. Padmanabhan mulls over lessons of Operation Parakram’ (note 8).

35 Sood and Sawhney, Operation Parakram (note 13) pp.80–3.

36 Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) p.20.

37 Luv Puri, ‘Be ready for decisive battle, PM tells jawans’, The Hindu, 23 May 2002.

38 ‘Pakistan may consider nuclear option: Minister’, Press Trust of India, 22 May 2002.

39 Dharam Shourie, ‘Defiant Pakistan threatens to use nukes’, Rediff.com, 30 May 2002, 〈http://in.rediff.com/news/2002/may/30war2.htm〉.

40 ‘Nation proud of missile test results, says Musharraf’, The News, June 18, 2002.

41 Steve Coll, ‘President’s interview’ (Excerpts), Washington Post, 26 May 2002.

42 Iltasham ul Haque, ‘We won’t initiate war: Musharraf’, Dawn, 28 May 2002.

43 Ministry of External Affairs press release, 14 May 2002, 〈http://meaindia.nic.in/event/2002/05/14event02.htm〉.

44 Nayak and Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’ (note 17) p.32; Sanger, The Inheritance (note 19) p.221.

45 ‘Our patience is running out, says Vajpayee’, The Hindu, 26 May 2002.

46 Transcript of press conference, 28 May 2002, 〈http://meaindia.nic.in/mediainteraction/2002/05/28mi01.htm〉.

47 Lee Siew Hoon, ‘India says nuclear arms capability only for self‐defence’, Channel News Asia, 2 June 2002, 〈www.iiss.org/conferences/the-shangri-la-dialogue/press-coverage/press-coverage-2002/channel-news-asia---india-says-nuclear-arms/〉.

48 Both cited in Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) pp.21, 23. My interpretation, however, differs from that of the author.

49 Atul Aneja, ‘We will respond if Pak. shows results on ground: PM’, The Hindu, 3 June 2002.

50 Atul Aneja, ‘Appropriate steps if Pak. keeps its word: Brajesh’, The Hindu, 4 June 2002.

51 Jim Lehrer’s interview with Colin Powell, 30 May 2002, 〈www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/asia/jan-june02/powell_5-30.html〉.

52 Nayak and Krepon, ‘US Crisis Management in South Asia’s Twin Peak Crisis’ (note 17) p.36.

53 Coll, ‘The stand‐off: how jihadi groups helped provoke the twenty‐first century’s first nuclear crisis’ (note 3).

54 Jyoti Malhotra and Bhavna Vij, ‘US puts money to Musharraf’s mouth’, Indian Express, 8 June 2002.

55 Praveen Swami, ‘Groping in the Dark’, Frontline 19/25 (7–20 Dec. 2002).

56 Sumit Ganguly and Devin Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry: India‐Pakistan Crises in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons (Seattle: Univ. of Washington Press, 2005) pp.168, 171.

57 Cited in Daniel Byman and Matthew Waxman, The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might (Cambridge: CUP 2002) p.35.

58 Ibid., pp.31–7.

59 Cited in Kapur, Dangerous Deterrent (note 1) p.136.

60 For example, Robert Jervis, ‘Deterrence Theory Revisited’, World Politics 31/2 (Jan. 1979) pp.317–18.

61 For example, Daniel Byman and Matthew Waxman, The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might (Cambridge: CUP 2002) pp.38–44.

62 Singh, A Call to Honour (note 14) p.341. Also see comments in Stolar, ‘To the Brink: Indian Decision‐Making and the 2001–2002 Standoff’ (note 14) p.28.

63 Cited in Kapur, Dangerous Deterrent (note 1) p.136.

64 Singh, A Call to Honour (note 14) p.269.

65 For e.g., Jonathan Shimshoni, Israel and Conventional Deterrence: Border Warfare from 1953 to 1970 (Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP 1988) pp.219–24.