The 2015 National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review choices: grand strategy, risk management or opportunism?

Abstract

In devising the 2015 National Security Strategy (NSS) and Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), British decision-makers have a choice between trying to shape international affairs to be more favourable or instead planning to respond meaningfully to events that arise. The former grand strategic approach appears favoured however, the latter risk management approach remains the basis for work. That the two approaches are incompatible, distinctly dissimilar and would yield markedly different NSS and SDSR outcomes is generally overlooked. Moreover, opportunism, a third viable approach has been neglected. This article evaluates the three approaches, ascertains their principal advantages and weaknesses and outlines three alternative NSSs and SDSRs based on the different approaches.

Keywords:

• defence policy
• grand strategy
• risk management
• opportunism
• national interest
• National Security Strategy
• Strategic Defence and Security Review

Notes

1 An alternative actuarial culture based on the historical analysis of previous calamities and the spreading of costs across many underpins insurance calculations, but is inappropriate for national security, where risk events are unique, relatively rare and hard to predict.

2 Note that the discussion here relates to prioritising scarce resources, not to the size a budget should be. The UK Government’s assessment that the principal threat to national well-being was economic led to a decision that the British Defence budget would be reduced by 7.5% in real terms from the previous year. This guideline shaped the 2010 NSS, but did not, in itself, determine the priorities for the reduced funding.