NATO options and dilemmas for deterring Russia in the Baltic States

Abstract

According to the NATO’s collective defence strategy and the principle of deterrence, “no one should doubt NATO’s resolve if the security of any of its members were to be threatened”. In this sense, credible deterrence acts as a guarantee for peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, recent events in Ukraine and Georgia have revealed the potential weaknesses of the current deterrence models. Without any overt fear of retaliation, we have seen Russia’s aggressive steps towards its neighbours, which were planned and executed with great sophistication, initiative, agility and decisiveness. Although contrary to Ukraine and Georgia which are not the members of the Alliance, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are granted security guarantees in the NATO framework, the Baltic countries clearly constitute Russia’s point of contact with NATO and are, therefore, also subject to the interests of Russia to test mutual capabilities and commitment, and to send strategic messages to the Alliance. In this context, the article aims to assess how credible is the deterrence posture provided by NATO in avoiding potential aggression on the part of Russia against the Baltic countries.

Keywords:

• Deterrence
• NATO
• Russia
• Baltic States

Notes

1. To research country-specific positions towards nuclear deterrence, the representatives of the Estonian and Latvian military forces and civil servants of the Estonian and Latvian Ministry of Defence were interviewed to provide answers to the following questions: (1) What is the importance of nuclear deterrence within your country's defence, deterrence and national security strategy? (2) To what extent are nuclear threats important within your country's assessment of the strategic environment when compared with other threats? (3) In your country's assessment, to what extent is the nuclear dimension central to NATO? (4) To what extent are nuclear topics a source of serious security concerns for your country? (5) Is nuclear deterrence making Central and Eastern Europe more or less secure? (6) How does your country view the credibility of the US nuclear security guarantees, and has there been a debate on this issue since January 2017? (7) Is your country policy on nuclear issues significantly influenced by the position(s) of one or several other EU member states owning nuclear assets? (8) What is your country’s perception of Russia as a nuclear power? (9) The US has roughly 200 non-strategic nuclear weapons in Europe; Russia reportedly has 2000. Is this imbalance perceived as a security threat in your country? (10) Has there been any significant political debate in your country in favour of the hosting of the US nuclear weapons? In total, 26 high level military officers and public officials were interviewed: 14 in Estonia and 12 in Latvia in December 2017. The interviews were conducted in Tallinn, Tartu and Riga.