The influence of time horizon on results of cost-effectiveness analyses

ABSTRACT

Background: Debates persist on the appropriate time horizon from a payer’s perspective and how the time horizon in cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) influences the value assessment.

Methods: We systematically reviewed the Tufts Medical Center CEA Registry and identified

US-based studies that used a payer perspective from 2005–2014. We classified the identified CEAs as short-term (time horizon ≤ 5 years) and long-term (> 5 years), and examined associations between study characteristics and the specified time horizon. We also developed case studies with selected interventions to further explore the relationship between time horizon and projected costs, benefits, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER).

Results: Among 782 identified studies that met our inclusion criteria, 552 studies (71%) utilized a long-term time horizon while 198 studies (25%) used a short-term horizon. Among studies that employed multiple time horizons, the extension of the time horizon yielded more favorable ICERs in 19 cases and less favorable ICERs in 4 cases. Case studies showed the use of a longer time horizon also yielded more favorable ICERs.

Conclusion: The assumed time horizon in CEAs can substantially influence the value assessment of medical interventions. To capture all consequences, we encourage the use of time horizons that extend sufficiently into the future.

KEYWORDS:

• Time horizon
• cost-effectiveness analysis
• systematic review
• health technology assessment
• value assessment

Acknowledgements

Researchers at Tufts Medical Center retained full control over question formulation, study selection, data extraction, data analyses, and interpretation of results. Also, authors are grateful for Dr. Jagpreet Chhatwal and Dr. Jordan King for their willingness to share original data for case studies.

Declaration of interest

JD Chambers has received unrelated research grant funding from Pfizer. JT Cohen has received unrelated research grant funding from Amgen, Biogen, and Janssen Pharmaceutical. Also, the listed author has lectured on the use of simulation modeling for Pfizer. PJ Neumann has received unrelated research grant funding from Janssen Pharmaceutical and has received consulting fees for Vertex Pharmaceutical.

Additional information

Funding

The study was funded by a consortium of funders (Amgen, Biogen, Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceutical, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi US, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals).