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Articles

Risk communication within military decision-making: pedagogic considerations

 

ABSTRACT

Risk management is a decision-support process and a vital tool for military planning and decision-making. Today, several nations utilize risk-based approaches to analyze the level of security in military operations. There are both strengths and challenges in applying risk-based approaches to support military decisions. In this article, the challenges related to risk communication are investigated with the aim of describing how a military organization should train to create a good environment for effective risk communication. The analysis finds that it is important for the organization to define and consistently use a shared risk understanding. Such a shared risk understanding will need a systematic development process that focuses on the future decision makers’ and analysts’ education and training. To reach understanding, all involved parties must have the chance to identify the problem, reflect on its implications, test different solutions and develop a solution.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. G. C. H. Bakx and R. A. L. Richardson, ‘Risk Assessments at the Royal Netherlands Air Force: An Explorative Study’, Journal of Risk Research 16, no. 5 (2013): 595–611; Department of the Army Composite Risk Management, FM 5-19 (FM 100-14) (Washington, DC: Headquarters Department of the Army, 2006); NATO, Allied Joint Doctrine for Force Protection, AJP-3.14 (Brussels: NATO Standardisation Agency, 2007); NATO, Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive, V1.0 (Brussels: NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Power Europe, 2010); Swedish Armed Forces, Försvarsmaktens gemensamma riskhanteringsmodell [The Armed Forces Common Risk Management Model] (Stockholm: Swedish Armed Forces, 2009).

2. S. Tomes, ‘Risk: Misunderstanding or Military Misnomer’, The British Army Review 153 (2012): 32–40.

3. H. Liwång, M. Ericson, and M. Bang, ‘An Examination of the Implementation of Risk Based Approaches in Military Operations’, Journal of Military Studies 5, no. 2 (2014).

4. T. Aven and B. S. Krohn, ‘A New Perspective on How to Understand, Assess and Manage Risk and the Unforeseen’, Reliability Engineering & System Safety 121 (2014): 1–10; S. Frosdick, ‘The Techniques of Risk Analysis Are Insufficient in Themselves’, Disaster Prevention and Management 6, no. 3 (1997): 165–77.

5. S. O. Hansson, ‘The False Promise of Risk Analysis’, Ratio-New Series 6, no.1 (1993): 16–26.

6. D. W. Hubbard, ‘Worse than Useless: The Most Popular Risk Assessment Method and Why It Doesn’t Work’, in The Failure of Risk Management: Why It's Broken and How to Fix It (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2009); H. Kunreuther, ‘Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World’, Risk Analysis 22, no. 4 (2002): 655–64; and on the challenges in risk communication A. Boholm, ‘New Perspectives on Risk Communication: Uncertainty in a Complex Society’, Journal of Risk Research 11, nos. 1–2 (2008): 1–3; K. M. Thompson, ‘Variability and Uncertainty Meet Risk Management and Risk Communication’, Risk Analysis 22, no. 3 (2002): 647–54.

7. M. Moorkamp et al., ‘Safety Management Theory and the Expeditionary Organization: A Critical Theoretical Reflection’, Safety Science 69 (2014): 71–81; T. Tardy, ‘The Reluctant Peacekeeper: France and the Use of Force in Peace Operations’, Journal of Strategic Studies 37, no. 5 (2014): 770–92.

8. N. Turner and S. J. Tennant, ‘“As Far as Is Reasonably Practicable”: Socially Constructing Risk, Safety, and Accidents in Military Operations’, Journal of Business Ethics 91, no. 1 (2010): 21–33.

9. S. Blackburn, ed., The Oxford Dictionary of Philosophy. 2nd ed. (Oxford, 2008).

10. Ibid.

11. A. Maltén, Kommunikation och konflikthantering – en introduktion [Communication and Conflict – an Introduction] (Lund: Studentlitteratur, 1998).

12. M. Friesl, S. A. Sackmann, and S. Kremser, ‘Knowledge Sharing in New Organizational Entities the Impact of Hierarchy, Organizational Context, Micro-Politics and Suspicion’, Cross Cultural Management-an International Journal 18, no. 1 (2011): 71–86.

13. Maltén, op. cit., in note 11.

14. G. Yukl, ‘Introduction: The Nature of Leadership’, in Leadership in Organizations. 6th ed. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, 2005), 1–21.

15. Ibid.

16. G. Yukl, ‘The Nature of Managerial Work’, in Leadership in Organizations. 6th ed. (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, 2005), 22–49.

17. Ibid.

18. C. C. Bonwell and J. A. Eison, Active Learning, Creating Excitement in the Classroom (Washington, DC: The George Washington University, 1991).

19. D. A. Kolb, Experiential Learning: Experience as the Source of Learning and Development (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, 1984).

20. M. Döös, ‘Den kvalificerade erfarenheten. Lärande vid störningar i automatiserad produktion [The Qualified Experience. Learning when Disturbances in Automated Production]’, in Arbete och hälsa (Solna: Arbetslivsinsitutet, 1997).

21. C. W. Johnson, ‘The Paradoxes of Military Risk Assessment’ (paper presented at the 25th international systems safety conference, Baltimore, MD, USA, 2007); NATO, op. cit., in note 1.

22. J. D. Andrews and T. R. Moss, ‘Risk Assessment’, in Reliability and Risk Assessment. 2nd ed. (London: Professional Engineering Publishing Limited, 2002), 411–48.

23. Thompson, op. cit., in note 6.

24. IACS, A Guide to Risk Assessment in Ship Operations (London: International Association of Classification Societies, 2012); IEC, Dependability Management – Application Guide Section 9: Risk Analysis of Technological Systems (International Electromechanical Commission, 1995); NATO, Allied Joint Doctrine; NATO, Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive.

25. Hansson, op. cit., in note 5.

26. G. C. H. Bakx and J. M. Nyce, ‘Risk and Safety in Large-Scale Socio-Technological (Military) Systems: A Literature Review’, Journal of Risk Research (2015).

27. Andrews and Moss, op. cit., in note 22.

28. Boholm, op. cit., in note 6.

29. J. M. Gibson et al., ‘Communicating Quantitative Information about Unexploded Ordnance Risks to the Public’, Environmental Science & Technology 47, no. 9 (2013): 4004–13.

30. Boholm, op. cit., in note 6.

31. Ibid.

32. Ibid.

33. Thompson, op. cit., in note 6.

34. Bakx and Nyce, op. cit., in note 26.

35. Boholm, op. cit., in note 6.

36. Thompson, op. cit., in note 6.

37. Ibid.

38. Boholm, op. cit., in note 6.

39. Gibson et al., op. cit. note 29.

40. Thompson, op. cit., in note 6.

41. Gibson et al., op. cit., in note 29.

42. Ibid.

43. Turner and Tennant, op. cit., in note 8.

44. Bakx and Nyce, op. cit., in note 26.

45. NATO, Allied Joint Doctrine; NATO, Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive.

46. S. Lundqvist, ‘Why Teaching Comprehensive Operations Planning Requires Transformational Learning’, Defence Studies 15, no. 2 (2015): 175–201.

47. H. Liwång, ‘Risk-Based Ship Security Analysis – A Decision-Support Approach’ (Thesis, Doctor of Philosophy, Chalmers University of Technology, 2015).

48. Aven and Krohn, op. cit., in note 4.

49. White House, Presidential Policy Directive – Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience (Washington, DC: The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 2013).

50. H. Liwång, J. W. Ringsberg, and M. Norsell, ‘Quantitative Risk Analysis – Ship Security Analysis for Effective Risk Control Options’, Safety Science 58 (2013): 98–112.

51. J. A. Friedman and R. Zeckhauser, ‘Handling and Mishandling Estimative Probability: Likelihood, Confidence, and the Search for Bin Laden’, Intelligence and National Security (2014): 1–23.

52. Liwång, Ericson, and Bang, op. cit., in note 3.

53. Liwång, op. cit., in note 47; Bakx and Nyce, op. cit., in note 26.

54. T. Aven, ‘On the Allegations that Small Risks are Treated Out of Proportion to their Importance’, Reliability Engineering & System Safety 140 (2015): 116–21; Bakx and Nyce, op. cit., in note 26.

55. Turner and Tennant, op. cit., in note 8.

56. Friesl, Sackmann, and Kremser, op. cit., in note 12. Moorkamp et al., op. cit., in note 7; Tardy, op. cit., in note 7.

57. Liwång, op. cit., in note 47; Liwång, Ericson, and Bang, op. cit., in note 3.

58. Turner and Tennant, op. cit., in note 8.

59. Liwång, op. cit., in note 47; Liwång, Ericson, and Bang, op. cit., in note 3.

60. Liwång, op. cit., in note 47.

61. Frosdick, op. cit., in note 4.

62. Bakx and Richardson, op. cit., in note 1; Turner and Tennant, op. cit., in note 8.

63. Liwång, op. cit., in note 47.

64. Thompson, op. cit., in note 6.

65. NRC, ‘Appendix N–2, Making Full Use of Scientific Information in Risk Assessment’, in Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment, ed. National Research Council (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1994).

66. Ibid.

67. Bakx and Nyce, op. cit., in note 26.

68. Lundqvist, op. cit., in note 46.

69. Turner and Tennant, op. cit., in note 8.

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