Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication

ABSTRACT

Introduction

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

Areas covered

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

Expert opinion

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

KEYWORDS:

• Poliovirus
• eradication
• modeling

Article highlights

• Systematic review of the literature demonstrates substantial contributions from polio models published in 2000–2019.

• The complexities of polioviruses and the two poliovirus vaccines make policies and modeling challenging.

• Different types of models, scopes, and definitions can lead to conflicting recommendations.

• Long-term poliovirus vaccine use remains uncertain as the polio endgame extends further in time.

• Future polio modeling offers opportunities to evaluate the risks, costs, and benefits of risk management options, including vaccines.

Author contributions

KM Thompson conceived of the review. KM Thompson and DA Kalkowska participated in the design and performance of the literature review, and drafted, read, and approved the manuscript.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Kevin McCarthy, John Modlin, and Radboud Duintjer Tebbens for helpful comments, and recognize and thank Radboud Duintjer Tebbens for his substantial contributions to the work described in and writing of Section 4.1.

Declaration of interest

The authors have no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties.

Reviewer disclosures

Peer reviewers on this manuscript have no relevant financial or other relationships to disclose.

Additional information

Funding

The authors thank the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for supporting the completion of this work [OPP1129391/INV-009333].