Viewpoint: Feeling the Pinch: Societal Slack and Space Development

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Notes

1See ‘Satellite Navigation’, Europe/Russia Cooperation in Space, available at<http://europa.eu.int/comm/space/russia/sector/satellite_navigation_en.html>.

2See Doug Struck, ‘Japan to Launch Spy Satellites’, The Washington Post, 25 March 2003.

3See Oliver Morton, ‘Europe's Air War’, Wired, 10.08 (August 2002).

4See ‘Space Activities of the U.S. Government: Historical Budget Summary-Budget Authority’, Aeronautics and Space Report of the President, Fiscal Year 1995 Activities, available at<http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/presrep95/e1a.htm>.

5See Eugene Gholz, ‘Military Transformation, Political Economy Pressures and the Future of Trans-Atlantic National Security Space Cooperation’, Astropolitics 1/2 (Autumn 2003), p.49.

6See Nader Elhefnawy, ‘Societal Complexity and Diminishing Returns in Security’, International Security 29/1 (Summer 2004), pp.152–74. See also idem, ‘National Mobilization: An Option in Future Conflicts?’,Parameters 34/3 (Autumn 2004), pp.122–33.

7Gene I. Rochlin, Trapped in the Net: The Unanticipated Consequences of Computerization (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999), p.213.

8See Theresa M. Welbourne, Heidi M. Neck, and G. Dale Meyer, ‘Human Resource Slack and Venture Growth’, conference paper, available at<http://www.babson.edu/entrep/fer/papers99/XXII/XXII_A/XXII_A.html>.

9See Joseph Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988); T.F.H. Allen, Joseph Tainter and Thomas W. Hoekstra, Supply-Side Sustainability (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003).

10See Elhefnawy, ‘Societal Complexity’ (note 6). See also idem, ‘National Mobilization’, (note 6).

11Figures calculated from Bureau of Economic Analysis data. For a long-range historical picture see Angus Maddison, World Economy in the 20th Century, 1820–1992 (Development Centre of OECD, 1995), p.255; and OECD, Historical Statistics 1995 (Paris: OECD, 1995), Table 3.1.

12For a broad examination of the drivers of that slower growth see Edward Luttwak, Turbo-Capitalism: Winners and Losers in the Global Economy (New York: Harpercollins Publishers, 1999).

13See OECD, Historical Statistics 1995 (note 11).

14This happened even as the level of world trade rose annually by 5.6 per cent in the 1980s and 7 per cent in the 1990s. World Trade Organization, 2001, International Trade Statistics, 2001 (Geneva: World Trade Organization, 2001), Table II.1, available at<http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2001_e/its01_longterm_e.htm>.

15See Elhefnawy, ‘Societal Complexity’ (note 6) pp.159–62.

16See ‘International Fiscal Comparisons’, in Department of Finance, Canada, Fiscal Reference Tables, October 2002, available at<http://www.fin.gc.ca/frt/2003/frt03_9e.html>.

17See Christopher Hood, ‘The Tax State in the Information Age’, in T.V. Paul, John A. Hall and G. John Ikenberry (eds.), The Nation-State in Question (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003), pp.217–18; Kevin P. Phillips, Wealth and Democracy: A Political History of the American Rich(New York: Broadway Books, 2003); and Allan Sloan, ‘Why Your Tax Cut Doesn't Add Up’,Newsweek, 12 April 2004, pp.41–6.

18According to one estimate, tax preparation in the United States costs $100 billion a year. At the same time, tax evasion costs the US government $300 billion a year, despite relatively Draconian penalties. Together these nearly equal the defense budget. Robert J. Samuelson, ‘The Price of Democracy’, Newsweek, 17 May 2004.

19See Charles Kindleberger, World Economic Primacy: 1500–1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), p.100.

20See ‘Space Activities of the U.S. Government: Historical Budget Summary-Budget Authority’, Aeronautics and Space Report of the President: 1995 Fiscal Activities, Appendix E-1A, available at<http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/presrep95/e1a.htm>.

21See Julie Mason, ‘In Tragedy's Wake, NASA Budget Now Hot Partisan Issue’, Houston Chronicle, 24 February 2003.

22See Robert L. Paarlberg, ‘Knowledge as Power: Science, Military Dominance, and U.S. Security’, International Security 29/1 (Summer 2004), pp.122–51.

23G. Harry Stine, The Third Industrial Revolution (New York: G.P. Putnam's Sons, 1975), pp.11–13.

24The Sea Launch company web site is available at<http://www.sea-launch.com/>.

25See Lester Thurow, The Future of Capitalism: How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World (New York: Penguin, 1996).

26See Bond Market Association, ‘Outstanding Level of Public & Private Debt: 1985–2003’,<http://www.bondmarkets.com/research/osdebt.shtml>.

27‘Peter Drucker Sets Us Straight’, Fortune, 12 January 2004, p.117.

28See Satellite Industry Association, ‘SIA releases industry statistics for 2002’, available at<http://www.sia.org/industry_overview/2002%20Satellite%201Industry%20Statistics.pdf>.

29Stine, in laying out his predictions for much more intense space development, assumed that the shuttle would live up to its billing, with per-pound launch costs reduced to $150 immediately and possibly a quarter that by 1990. This would be $534 and $135 in 2003 dollars, respectively – far lower than current launch costs. See Stine (note 23), pp.36–40.

30Such hopes were notably dashed for many in the 1990s with the shortfall in demand for commercial telecommunications, an experience likely to make business more cautious in the future about investing in space. See Gholz (note 5), pp.40–41.

31See Michael O'Hanlon, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2000), p.194.

32Not surprisingly, many of these efforts are looking to alternatives to chemical rockets, such as laser propulsion. See Roger D. Launius, ‘Between a Rocket and a Hard Place’, in Space Policy in the Twenty-First Century (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2003), p.36.

33Surrey Satellite Technology, Ltd, data sheets, ‘Surrey Missions: DMC’, available at<http://www.sstl.co.uk/datasheets/Mission_DMC.pdf>.

34See Gholz (note 5), pp.34–5.

35See Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology (New York: Anchor, 1986).

36See Kenneth Chang, ‘Not Science Fiction: An Elevator to Space’, The New York Times, 23 September 2003.

37See Hans Moravec, Robot: Mere Machine to Transcendent Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000).

38See Robert Gordon, ‘Does the “New Economy” Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 14/4 (Fall 2000), pp.49–74.