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Astropolitics
The International Journal of Space Politics & Policy
Volume 20, 2022 - Issue 1
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Research Viewpoint

When States Test Their Anti-Satellite Weapons

 

ABSTRACT

The United States, Russia, China, and India are the only states that have tested anti-satellite weapons (ASATs) by deliberately destroying orbiting satellites. In this paper, a mix of practical and aspirational factors are investigated in the context of heightened propensity for a state's testing of ASATs. The strategic competition and rivalry between these global and regional space powers generates an environment of conflict and insecurity. In the absence of an international treaty to constrain behavior, these states are driven to amass counterspace capabilities to secure their assets and establish space dominance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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7. Porras, “Towards ASAT Test Guidelines,” 1–12.

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22. Firth, “How to fight a war in space,” 37.

23. Ibid., 38.

24. Firth, “How to Fight a War in Space.”

25. Ibid.

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30. “UCS Satellite Database,” Union of Concerned Scientists, Updated January 1, 2021, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database/.

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32. Michael P. Gleason and Peter L. Hays, “Space Agenda 2021: A Roadmap for Assessing Space Weapons,” Center for Space Policy and Strategy, October 2020, 3–4, https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Gleason-Hays_SpaceWeapons_20201005_1.pdf.

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35. Alexander Wendt, “Constructing International Politics,” International Security 20, no. 1 (Summer 1995): 73.

36. Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities,” Appendix 01, 10-1 to 10-4.

37. Kelsey D. Atherton, “The Chicken-and-Egg Debate about New Threats in Space,” Defense News, April 8, 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/c2-comms/satellites/2019/04/09/what-new-threats-menace-the-peace-of-space/.

38. Robert Jervis, “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30, no. 2 (1978): 169.

39. Khan and Khan, “Space Security Trilemma,”.

40. Ibid., 5.

41. Khan and Khan, “Space Security Trilemma,” 6–8.

42. Ahmad Khan and Eligar Sadeh, “Introduction: Space Power and Security Trilemma in South Asia,” Astropolitics 17, no. 1 (March 26, 2019): 1, DOI: 10.1080/14777622.2019.1589996.

43. Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities,” Executive summary, xix–xx.

44. Air Force Space Command, “The Future of Space 2060.”

45. Gleason and Hays, “Space Agenda 2021.”

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48. Coats, “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2019,” 16-17, 24.

49. “Final Report on Organizational and Management Structure for the National Security Space Components of the Department of Defense,” Department of Defense: Report to Congressional Defense Committees, August 9, 2018, 4, https://media.defense.gov/2018/Aug/09/2001952764/-1/-1/1/ORGANIZATIONAL-MANAGEMENT-STRUCTURE-DOD-NATIONAL-SECURITY-SPACE-COMPONENTS.PDF.

50. Harrison et al., “Space Threat Assessment 2019,” 17; Porras, “Towards ASAT Test Guidelines”; Laura Grego, “A History of Anti-Satellite Programs,” Union of Concerned Scientists, January 2012, 1–16, https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/a-history-of-ASAT-programs_lo-res.pdf.

51. Eligar Sadeh, “Report: United States-China Space Dialogue Project,” Astropolitics 8, no. 1 (2010): 7-18, DOI: 10.1080/14777622.2010.494513.

52. Ibid.

53. Gleason and Hays, “Space Agenda 2021,” 5.

54. Sadeh, “United States-China Space Dialogue.”

55. Ibid., 15.

56. Air Force Space Command “The Future of Space 2060.”

57. “Full Text: China's Military Strategy.”

58. “Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2020: Annual Report to Congress,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, Department of Defense, https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF.

59. Max Blenkin, “Space may Serve as a Regional Flashpoint Between China and the US,” Space Connect, April 10, 2019, https://www.spaceconnectonline.com.au/operations/3288-outer-space-may-serve-as-a-regional-flashpoint-between-china-and-the-us.

60. See Sadeh, “United States-China Space Dialogue.”

61. “Note to Sullivan: You are Dragging US Down by Talking Big: Global Times Editorial,” Global Times, December 9, 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1241043.shtml.

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63. Khan and Khan, “Space Security Trilemma,” 10–11.

64. Harrison et al., “Space Threat Assessment 2019,” 145.

65. Alexey Arbatov, “Arms Control in Outer Space: The Russian Angle, and a Possible Way Forward,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 75, no. 4 (2019): 153, doi:10.1080/00963402.2019.1628475.

66. Harrison et al., “Space Threat Assessment 2019,” 19.

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101. Coats, “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2019”; “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2020,” Office of the Secretary of Defense, United States Department of Defense, 65, https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF.

102. Hill, “Russia is Testing Anti-Satellite Technologies.”

103. Phillip C Saunders and Charles D Lutes, ”China's ASAT Test Motivations and Implications,” Joint Force Quarterly 46, July 2007: 40.

104. “Premier Wen Jiabao's Press Conference,” March 17, 2007, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/cenz//eng/xw/t304313.htm; Liu Jianchao, Foreign Ministry spokesman, Regular Press Conference, January 23, 2007, https://www.mfa.gov.cn/ce/ceus//eng/fyrth/t291388.htm.

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106. Bates Gill and Martin Kleiber, “China's Space Odyssey,” Foreign Affairs 86, no. 3 (2007): 2–6; Saunders and Lutes, “China's ASAT Test Motivations,” 40-41; Also see Shen Dingli, “China's Defensive Military Strategy: the Space Question,” in Michael Krepon, et al., “China's Military Space Strategy: An Exchange,” Survival (00396338) 50, no. 1, February 2008): 170–76. doi:10.1080/00396330801899512.

107. Aaron Mehta, “America's Adversaries Keep Investing in Weapons to Take Out Satellites,” C4ISRNET, March 30, 2020, https://www.c4isrnet.com/battlefield-tech/space/2020/03/29/countries-keep-investing-in-weapons-to-take-out-satellites/.

108. Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities.”

109. Mark Wess, “ASAT Goes Cyber,” U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, February 2021, 44–47.

110. Harrison et al., “Space Threat Assessment 2019,” 24; Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities.”

111. Nan Tian et al., “SIPRI Fact Sheet: Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2019,” SIPRI, April 2020, 9, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0.pdf.

112. Daniel R. Coats, “Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 13, 2018, https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Testimonies/2018-ATA—Unclassified-SSCI.pdf.

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114. Global military expenditure sees largest annual increase in a decade – says SIPRI – reaching $1917 billion in 2019,” SIPRI, April 27, 2020, https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/global-military-expenditure-sees-largest-annual-increase-decade-says-sipri-reaching-1917-billion; Tian et al., “SIPRI Fact Sheet: Trends in World Military Expenditure,” 7.

115. Coats, “Worldwide Threat Assessment 2019,” 35; Rabinowitz, “Indian army wants military space program.”

116. Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities.”

117. Porras, “Towards ASAT Test Guidelines” 6.

118. Vasani, “India's Anti-Satellite Weapons.”

119. Sönnichsen and Lambach, “A Developing Arms Race,” 5-9.

120. D.W. Larson, “An Equal Partnership of Unequals: China's and Russia's New Status Relationship,” International Politics 57, no. 5 (August 21, 2019): 790–808, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-019-00177-9.

121. Sönnichsen and Lambach, “A Developing Arms Race,” 5-9; Jonathan Renshon, Fighting for Status: Hierarchy and Conflict in World Politics (Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 2017): 14, doi:10.2307/j.ctt1q1xsw9.

122. Ibid.

123. Mehta, “America's Adversaries Keep Investing.”

124. Marco Giulio Barone, “Anti-Satellites Weapons: Myth or Truth?” Military Technology 43, no. 12 (December 2019): 56.

125. Larson, “An Equal Partnership of Unequals”; Deborah Welch Larson and Alexei Shevchenko, “Prestige Matters: Chinese and Russian Status Concerns and U.S. Foreign Policy,” POLICY BRIEF-Quarterly Journal: International Security, April 2010, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/prestige-matters-chinese-and-russian-status-concerns-and-us-foreign-policy.

126. Renshon, Fighting for Status, 4-6, 14.

127. Michael Beckley, Interview by Taylor McNeil, “Why the United States Is the Only Superpower,” Tufts Now, November 21, 2019, https://now.tufts.edu/articles/why-united-states-only-superpower.

128. David Vergun, “U.S. Will Not Let China, Russia Deny Its Space Superiority, DOD Officials Say,” US Department of Defense News, February 27, 2020, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2096883/us-will-not-let-china-russia-deny-its-space-superiority-dod-officials-say/.

129. Alexander Bowe, “China's Pursuit of Space Power Status and Implications for the United States,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: Staff Research Report, April 11, 2019, 2, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/USCC_China's%20Space%20Power%20Goals.pdf.

130. “Are we losing the space race to China,” Testimony to Congress, Hearing before the Subcommittee on Space, Committee on Science, Space, And Technology, House Of Representatives, 114th Congress, Second Session, Serial No. 114-95, September 27, 2016, (testimony of Deng Cheng), https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-114hhrg22564/html/CHRG-114hhrg22564.htm.

131. Mike Wall, “Russia and China Just Agreed to Build a Research Station on the Moon Together,” Space.com, March 10, 2021, https://www.space.com/russia-china-moon-research-station-agreement.

132. Anthony Imperato, Peter Garretson, and Richard Harrison, “To Compete with China in Space, America Must Ramp up Funding,” The National Interest, June 1, 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/compete-china-space-america-must-ramp-funding-186383.

133. Alexei Druzhinin, “Russia Must Uphold its Status of Leading Nuclear and Space Power – Putin,” TASS: Russian News Service, April 12, 2021, https://tass.com/science/1276923.

134. Andrej Krickovic and Igor Pellicciari, “From “Greater Europe” to “Greater Eurasia”: Status Concerns and the Evolution of Russia's Approach to Alignment and Regional Integration,” Journal of Eurasian Studies 12, no. 1 (March 15, 2021): 86, https://doi.org/10.1177/1879366521998808.

135. Larson, “An Equal Partnership of Unequals”.

136. Thomas R. McCabe, “Air and Space Power with Chinese Characteristics: China's Military Revolution,” Air & Space Power Journal 34, no. 1 (2020): 29.

137. T. V. Paul, D. W. Larson, and W. C. Wohlforth, eds., Status in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014), doi:10.1017/CBO9781107444409.

138. Barone, “Anti-Satellites Weapons: Myth or Truth?” 56.

139. Narendra Modi (official account), Twitter, March 27, 2019, https://twitter.com/narendramodi/status/1110800868058660864?lang=en.

140. Weeden and Samson, “Global Counterspace Capabilities.”

141. Dwayne Day, “To Attack or Deter? The Role of Anti-Satellite Weapons,” The Space Review, April 20, 2020, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/3927/1; Dwayne Day, “Blunt Arrows: The Limited Utility of ASATs,” The Space Review, June 6, 2005, https://www.thespacereview.com/article/388/1; Jaganath Sankaran, “China's Deceptively Weak Anti-Satellite Capabilities,” The Diplomat, November 13, 2014, https://thediplomat.com/2014/11/chinas-deceptively-weak-anti-satellite-capabilities/.

142. Mike Wall, “Don't Panic about Russia's Recent Anti-Satellite Test, Experts Say,” Space.com, April 2020, https://www.space.com/russia-anti-satellite-weapon-fears-overblown.html#xenforo-comments-30812.

143. Matthew A. Hallex, and Travis S. Cottom, “Proliferated Commercial Satellite Constellations: Implications for National Security.” JFQ: Joint Force Quarterly no. 97 (2020, 2nd Quarter): 20–29.

144. Ibid.; also see Sankaran, “China's Deceptively Weak Anti-Satellite Capabilities.”

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