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Global Change, Peace & Security
formerly Pacifica Review: Peace, Security & Global Change
Volume 27, 2015 - Issue 2
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Articles

Insurgency defensive posture under extreme duress

 

Abstract

Insurgent guerrilla groups are on occasion faced with difficult decisions: whether and when to become a conventional force, and whether to defend an operational base or fixed site. Standard doctrine suggests that to achieve state capture or acquire autonomous status apart from a central authority, the ability to successfully engage in conventional warfare may became necessary. A conventional force must be capable of defending territory, a defined space. Accompanying the decision to defend territory is a certain level of risk. This article examines the decision by four insurgent organizations to defend ‘operational hubs’, territory deemed worthy of a defense. The analysis herein submits that in insurgent warfare the utility of the territory being defended often supersedes the likelihood of a successful defense, on occasion generating negative outcomes for the insurgent forces.

Notes on contributor

Albert Harris has taught International Relations and International Law in the US for 25 years. His published work includes articles in the journals Cooperation and Conflict, International Negotiations, Villanova Environmental Law Journal, Negotiation Journal, and the Journal of Conflict Studies. His current scholarly interest has a concentration in the area of civil war and insurgency. Professor Harris welcomes correspondence pertaining to developments in the sub-field of civil war and insurgency.

Notes

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44 Pobre and Quilop, In Assertion of Sovereignty, 125.

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46 Pobre and Quilop, In Assertion of Sovereignty, 126.

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48 International Crisis Group, ‘The Philippines: Breakthrough in Mindanao’, 6.

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55 Lincoln B. Krause, ‘Playing for the Breaks: Insurgent Mistakes’, Parameters (Autumn 2009): 54.

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57 Douglas S. Blaufarb and George K. Tanham, Fourteen Points: A Framework for the Analysis of Counterinsurgency (MacLean, VA: BDM Corporation, 1984), E-3.

58 Schrader, The Withered Vine, 101.

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61 Nachmani, ‘Civil War and Foreign Intervention in Greece’, 502.

62 Ibid., 502.

63 Anthony James Joes, Modern Guerrilla Insurgency (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1992), 42.

64 Charilaos G. Lagoudakis, ‘Greece, 1946–1949’, in Challenge and Response in Internal Conflict (see note 8), 510, as cited by Krause, ‘Playing for the Breaks: Insurgent Mistakes’, 63.

65 Nachmani, ‘Civil War and Foreign Intervention’, 501.

66 Blaufarb and Tanham, Fourteen Points: A Framework for the Analysis of Counterinsurgency, B-6.

67 Joes, Modern Guerrilla Insurgency, 41.

68 D.B.S. Jeyaraj, ‘LTTE Offensive’, Frontline 16, no. 25, November 27, 1979, http://www.frontline.in/search/archive.do;jsessionid=A82DC93E250B81CACE1D58A0CD329252.route01 (accessed September 20, 2013).

69 Faurby, ‘The Battle(s) of Grozny’, 81; Jeyaraj, ‘LTTE Offensive’, 1.

70 Jack Levy, ‘Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science’, Synthese 135 (2003): 215–41, dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1023413007698.

71 Robert Jervis, ‘Political Implications of Loss Aversion’, Political Psychology 13, no. 2 (1992): 195, dx.doi.org/10/2307/3791678.

72 Levy, ‘Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science’, Synthese 135, (2003): 219, http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2539261.

73 Jervis, ‘Political Implications of Loss Aversion’, 188.

74 Mehta, ‘Sri Lanka's Ethnic Conflict: How Elam IV Was Won’, 17, www.lankaweb.com/news/items10/LTTEHow%20theEelam ; International Crisis Group, ‘Sri Lanka's Return to War: Limiting the Damage’, 5; BBC News, ‘Fierce Fighting Around Grozny’, December 21, 1999, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/574075.stm (accessed September 18, 2013); ‘Russian Tanks Pounding Grozny From 3 Directions’, New York Times, December 16, 1999, http://www.nytimes.com/1999/12/18/world/russian-tanks-pounding-grozny-from-3-directions.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/1999/12/18/world/russian-tanks-pounding-grozny-from-3-directions.html (accessed September 16, 2013).

76 J. Tyler Dickovick, Africa 2012 (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield 2012), 270.

77 Kahneman and Tversky, ‘Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk’, 280.

78 Jervis, ‘Political Implications of Loss Aversion’, 195.

79 Levy, ‘Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science’, 219.

80 Khaneman, Knetsch, and Thaler, ‘Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias’, 199.

81 Tversky and Khaneman, ‘Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice’, 1041.

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