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Abstract
The term ‘arc of instability’ was first used in 1999 to describe the security challenges facing the South Pacific. It subsequently came to dominate Australian political discourse, although its veracity was critiqued. This article considers how Australia's political discourse about the region has evolved since 1999 and what impact this has had on Australia's relationships in the region. It begins by outlining why the arc of instability characterization emerged and how it contributed to the securitization of the South Pacific, which justified Australia's policy of new interventionism in the region. It concludes by considering whether it might be time to recharacterize the region as an ‘arc of opportunity’. This recharacterization may shift the political discourse to focus on the South Pacific's potential and opportunities, desecuritize Australia's relationship with the region and diffuse concerns about continued Australian intervention by articulating a more cooperative approach.
Notes on contributor
Joanne Wallis is a Senior Lecturer in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, School of International, Political and Strategic Studies, at the Australian National University. Her latest book is Constitution Making during State Building (Cambridge University Press, 2014).
Notes
1 Paul Dibb, David D. Hale, and Peter Prince, ‘Asia's Insecurity’, Survival 41, no. 3 (1999): 18.
2 Paul Dibb, Review of Australia's Defence Capabilities (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 1986), 4; Commonwealth of Australia, The Defence of Australia (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 1987).
3 Commonwealth of Australia, Defence 2000: Our Future Defence Force (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2000); Commonwealth of Australia, Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030 (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2009); Commonwealth of Australia, Defence White Paper 2013 (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2013).
4 United States, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2002), http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/63562.pdf (accessed October 10, 2014).
5 Barry Buzan and Ole Waever, Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 71.
6 Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Transnational Terrorism: The Threat to Australia (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2004); Elsina Wainwright, Our Failing Neighbour: Australia and the Future of the Solomon Islands (Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2003).
7 Shahar Hameiri, ‘Risk Management, Neo-liberalism and the Securitisation of the Australian Aid Program’, Australian Journal of International Affairs 62, no. 3 (2008): 357–71.
8 Sinclair Dinnen, Lending a Fist? Australia's New Interventionism in the Southwest Pacific (Canberra: Australian National University, 2004).
9 Theo Farrell, ‘Constructivist Security Studies: Portrait of a Research Program’, International Studies Review 4, no. 1 (2002): 49–72; Nicholas Onuf, ‘Constructivism: A User's Manual’, in International Relations in a Constructed World, eds. Vendulka Kubalkova, Nicholas Onuf, and Paul Kowert (London: M.E. Sharpe, 1998): 58–78; Alexander Wendt, ‘Anarchy is what States Make of it: The Social Construction of Power Politics', International Organization 46, no. 2 (1992): 391–425.
10 Buzan and Waever, Regions and Powers, 48.
11 Ibid., 56.
12 Greg Fry, ‘Framing the Islands: Knowledge and Power in Changing Australian Images of “the South Pacific”’, The Contemporary Pacific 9, no. 2 (1997): 305–44; Epeli Hau'ofa, ‘Our Sea of Islands', The Contemporary Pacific 6 (1994): 148–61.
13 Robert C. Kiste, ‘Pre-colonial Times', in Tides of History: The Pacific Islands in the Twentieth Century, ed. K.R. Howe et al. (Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1994); Hank Nelson, Governments, States and Labels, State Society and Governance in Melanesia Discussion Paper 2006/1 (Canberra: Australian National University, 2006).
14 Nelson, Governments, States and Labels.
15 Anthony J. Regan, Light Intervention: Lessons from Bougainville (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2010).
16 Graeme Dobell, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility”’, Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 33.
17 Dennis Rumley, ‘The Emergence of Australia's Arc of Instability’, in Australia's Arc of Instability: The Political and Cultural Dynamics of Regional Security, ed. D. Rumley, V. Louis Forbes, and C. Griffin (Dordrecht: Springer, 2006), 18.
18 David Hegarty, ‘Through and Beyond the “Arc of Instability”’, in The Eye of the Cyclone: Issues in Pacific Security, ed. I. Molloy (Sippy Downs: Pacific Island Political Studies Association and University of the Sunshine Coast, 2004), 50.
19 Robert Ayson, ‘The “Arc of Instability” and Australia's Strategic Policy’, Australian Journal of International Affairs 61, no. 2 (2007): 224.
20 Quoted in Alexandra Kirk, ‘Howard Hits Back on National Security’, PM, ABC Radio, September 20, 2004), http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2004/s1203246.htm (accessed May 14, 2014).
21 Kevin Rudd, ‘The Mismanagement of Australia's National Security: The Death of Disarmament as a Priority of Australian Diplomacy’ (Address to the Commemoration of the 10th Anniversary of the Canberra Commission, Brisbane, August 2, 2006).
22 For example, Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, A Pacific Engaged: Australia's Relations with Papua New Guinea and the Island States of the Southwest Pacific (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2003); and Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, Australia's Maritime Strategy (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2004).
23 For example, Aaron Timms, ‘Up in Arms over Defence Strategy’, Sydney Morning Herald, July 9, 2007; Rowan Callick, ‘Australia is Front and Centre in Arc of Instability’, The Australian, June 18, 2011; ‘Australia's Arc of Instability’, The Guardian, May 26, 2006; and ‘Worries over “Arc of Instability” in South Pacific’, The Telegraph, July 25, 2003.
24 Elsina Wainwright et al., Our Failing Neighbour: Australia and the Future of Solomon Islands (Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2003).
25 Greg Fry and Tarcisius T. Kabutaulaka, Intervention and State-Building in the Pacific: The Legitimacy of ‘Cooperative Intervention’ (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2008).
26 Regional Assistance to Solomon Islands, People's Survey (2006–13), http://www.ramsi.org/media/peoples-survey/ (accessed November 7, 2014).
27 Fry and Kabutaulaka, Intervention and State-Building.
28 Kevin Rudd, Port Moresby Declaration, March 6, 2008, http://aid.dfat.gov.au/countries/pacific/Pages/Port-Moresby-Declaration.aspx (accessed November 7, 2014).
29 AusAID, Pacific Partnerships for Development, (2013) http://aid.dfat.gov.au/countries/pacific/partnership/Pages/default.aspx (accessed November 7, 2014).
30 Sinclair Dinnen, ‘The Solomon Islands – RAMSI, Transition and Future Prospects', Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 68.
31 Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Labour Mobility Initiative – Seasonal Worker Program, http://aid.dfat.gov.au/countries/pacific/rp/Pages/initiative-labour-mobility-seasonal-worker-program.aspx (accessed November 7, 2014).
32 Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Independent State of Papua New Guinea and the Government of Australia, Relating to the Transfer to, and Assessment and Settlement in, Papua New Guinea of Certain Persons, and Related Issues, August 6, 2013.
33 Memorandum of Understanding between the Republic of Nauru and the Commonwealth of Australia, Relating to the Transfer to and Assessment of Persons in Nauru, and Related Issues, August 3, 2013.
34 They have been outlined elsewhere. See Sue Harris-Rimmer, ‘The Top 10 Mistakes in the PNG Solution’, The Drum, July 24, 2013, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-24/harris-rimmer-the-top-10-mistakes-in-rudds-png-solution/483858 (accessed November 7, 2014); Victoria Stead, ‘Rudd's Hard-line Approach Will Be Disastrous', The Age, July 22, 2013; Jenny Hayward-Jones, ‘Australia's Asylum-seeker Obsession Risks Damaging PNG Relations', The Interpreter, March 6, 2014, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2014/03/06/Australia-asylum-seekers-PNG-relations.aspx?COLLCC=2378705520& (accessed November 7, 2014).
35 The Coalition's Policy for Foreign Affairs (September 2013), http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/Coalition%202013%20Election%20Policy%20%E2%80%93%20Foreign%20Affairs%20-%20final.pdf (accessed November 7, 2014).
36 Nicholas Coppel, Transition of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands, SSGM Discussion Paper 2012/10 (Canberra: Australian National University, 2012).
37 Matthew Allen, Long-term Engagement: The Future of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2011).
38 Sinclair Dinnen, ‘The Solomon Islands – RAMSI, Transition and Future Prospects', Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 68.
39 Jack Maebuta, ‘Peace Education and Peace-building in the Solomon Islands: Disconnected Layers', Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 93–104; John Braithwaite et al., Pillars and Shadows: Statebuilding as Peacebuilding in Solomon Islands (Canberra: ANU E Press, 2010).
40 Ron May, ‘Papua New Guinea: Issues of External and Internal Security’, Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 47–60.
41 Joanne Wallis, ‘Ten Years of Peace: Assessing Bougainville's Progress and Prospects', The Round Table 101 (2012): 29–40.
42 Solomon Kantha, ‘Papua New Guinea’, The Contemporary Pacific 23, no. 2 (2011): 491–504.
43 Brij V. Lal, ‘Fiji: Fishing in Troubled Waters', Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 85.
44 Jon Fraenkel and Stewart Firth, ‘The Enigmas of Fiji's Good Governance Coup’, in The 2006 Military Takeover in Fiji: A Coup to End All Coups?, ed. S. Firth, J. Fraenkel, and B.V. Lal (Canberra: ANU E Press, 2009), 3–20.
45 Nicole George, ‘Big Questions over Fiji's New Constitution’, The Interpreter, September 11, 2013, http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2013/09/11/Big-questions-over-Fijis-new-constitution.aspx (accessed June 1, 2014); Brij V. Lal, The Strange Career of Commodore Frank Bainimarama's 2006 Fiji Coup, SSGM Discussion Paper 2013/8 (Canberra: Australian National University, 2013).
46 Jone Baledrokadroka, ‘The Unintended Consequences of Fiji's International Peacekeeping’, Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 105–16.
47 Dobell, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility”’, 44.
48 Ibid.
49 David Kang, China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007).
50 ‘Roundtable on Regional Perspectives on U.S. Strategic Rebalancing’, Asia Policy 15 (2013): 2–44; Robert S. Ross, ‘The Problem with the Pivot: Obama's New Asia Policy Is Unnecessary and Counterproductive’, Foreign Affairs 91 (November/December 2012): 70–82.
51 Marc Lanteigne, ‘Water Dragon? China, Power Shifts and Soft Balancing in the South Pacific’, Political Science 64, no. 1 (2012): 23.
52 Paul Dibb, ‘The Importance of the Inner Arc to Australian Defence Policy and Planning’, Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 13–31.
53 Edgard Kagan, ‘US Engagement with the South Pacific and the Region’ (public lecture at the Australian National University, Canberra, October 25, 2012); C. Steven McGann and Richard K. Pruett, A New Strategic Architecture for the Pacific, Pacific Islands Brief (Honolulu: Pacific Islands Development Program, 2012).
54 Lal, ‘Fiji: Fishing in Troubled Waters'.
55 Commonwealth of Australia, Defence White Paper 2013, 15.
56 Pacific Islands Forum, The Pacific Plan for Regional Integration and Cooperation (Suva: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat, 2007).
57 Richard Herr, ‘The Security Outlook for Melanesia’, United Service 64, no. 2 (2013): 12.
58 Ronald May, The Melanesian Spearhead Group: Testing Pacific Island Solidarity (Canberra: Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2011), 7.
59 Eminent Persons Group, The Case for an Enhanced Melanesian Spearhead Group Sub-regionalism (Port Vila: Melanesian Spearhead Group, 2013), 7.
60 Sandra Tarte, A New Regional Pacific Voice? Pacific Islands Brief (Honolulu: East–West Center, 2013).
61 Ibid.
62 Herr, ‘The Security Outlook for Melanesia’; Joanne Wallis, ‘Papua New Guinea: New Opportunities and Declining Australian Influence?’, Security Challenges 10, no. 2 (2014): 115–35.
63 Nic Maclellan, ‘The Region in Review: International Issues and Events, 2011’, The Contemporary Pacific 24, no. 2 (2012): 360–75.
64 Christopher Pala, ‘Islands Revoke UK Fisheries Treaty’, Islands Business (May 2011); 21–23.
65 Dobell, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility”’, 44.
66 May, ‘Papua New Guinea: Issues of External and Internal Security’, 58–9.
67 Joanne Wallis, ‘The Pacific: From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility” and Then to “Arc of Opportunity?”’, Security Challenges 8, no. 4 (2012): 1–12.
68 Tony Hiriasia, ‘The Role of Gift Giving in Solomon Islands Contemporary Politics' (presentation at Strategic and Defence Studies Centre and State, Society and Governance in Melanesia workshop, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Opportunity”: Is it Time for Australia to Shift its Priorities from Security to Development in the South Pacific’, Australian National University, Canberra, February 8, 2013); Greg Nimbtik, ‘The Role that Customary Practices Play in Vanuatu's Modern Government System’ (presentation at workshop ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Opportunity”’); Joanne Wallis, ‘Building a Liberal–Local Hybrid Peace and State in Bougainville’, Pacific Review 25, no. 5 (2012): 613–35; Joanne Wallis, ‘A Liberal–Local Hybrid Peace Project in Action? The Increasing Engagement between the Liberal and Local in Timor-Leste’, Review of International Studies 38, no. 4 (2012): 735–61.
69 Joanne Wallis, ‘What Role can Decentralisation Play in State-building? Lessons from Timor-Leste and Bougainville’, Commonwealth & Comparative Politics 51, no. 4 (2013): 424–46.
70 Maebuta, ‘Peace Education and Peace-building in the Solomon Islands'.
71 Ibid., 100.
72 Serena Sasingian, “Developing Opportunities for Young People in Papua New Guinea’ (presentation at workshop ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Opportunity”’).
73 Quentin Hanich, ‘Maritime Issues Facing the Region’ (presentation at workshop ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Opportunity”’); Sam Bateman and Quentin Hanich, ‘Maritime Security Issues in an Arc of Instability and Opportunity’, Security Challenges 9, no. 4 (2013): 87–105.
74 UN Women, Ending Violence Against Women in the Pacific with UN Women, http://www.unwomen.org.au/Content%20Pages/Get%20Active/Factsheet%20-%20Web.pdf (accessed September 19, 2012).
75 Prime Minister of Australia, ‘Addressing Gender Inequality in the Pacific’, Media Release, August 29, 2012, http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2F1882238%22 (accessed November 7, 2014).
76 Ibid.
77 43rd Pacific Islands Forum Communiqué, PIFS(12)10, Rarotonga, Cook Islands, August 28–30, 2012, http://www.forumsec.org/resources/uploads/attachments/documents/43rd%20Pacific%20Islands%20Forum%20Communique%20-%20FINAL1.pdf (accessed September 19, 2012).
78 Dobell, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility”’.
79 May, ‘Papua New Guinea: Issues of External and Internal Security’.
80 Stewart Firth, ‘New Developments in the International Relations of the South Pacific’, Journal of Pacific History 48, no. 3 (2013): 286–93.
81 ‘China, Australia HOLD FIRST STRATEGIC DIALOGUE’, Chinese Embassy Media Release, February 6, 2008, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t409600.htm (accessed September 19, 2012).
82 MFAT, ‘New Zealand and China Collaborate on World First Development’, Media Release, September 2012, http://www.aid.govt.nz/media-and-publications/development-stories/september-2012/new-zealand-and-china-collaborate-world-fi (accessed November 7, 2014).
83 Bob Carr, ‘Australia and China Enter into New Development Cooperation Partnership’, Media Release, April 10, 2013, http://www.foreignminister.gov.au/releases/2013/bc_mr_130410.html (accessed November 7, 2014).
84 Joel Atkinson, ‘China–Taiwan Diplomatic Competition and the Pacific Islands', The Pacific Review 23, no. 4 (2010): 407–27; Ron Crocombe, Asia in the Pacific Islands: Replacing the West (Suva: IPS Publications, University of the South Pacific, 2007); Graeme Dobell, ‘China and Taiwan in the South Pacific: Diplomatic Chess versus Pacific Political Rugby’, CSCSD Occasional Paper Number 1 (Canberra, Australian National University, 2007).
85 Dobell, ‘From “Arc of Instability” to “Arc of Responsibility”’.
86 Hau'ofa, ‘Our Sea of Islands'.
87 Hegarty, ‘Through and Beyond the “Arc of Instability”’.
88 Fry, ‘Framing the Islands'.
89 Ibid.
90 ‘The South Pacific: from “arc of instability” to “arc of opportunity”’, http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/news-events/video/south-pacific-arc-instability-arc-opportunity#.U-hLpbEmHvs (accessed August 11, 2014).
91 Bateman and Hanich, ‘Maritime Security Issues in an Arc of Instability and Opportunity’; Charles Hawksley and Nichole Georgeou, ‘Issues in Australian Foreign Policy July to December 2012’, Australian Journal of Politics and History 59, no. 2 (2013): 260–75; Mark Beeson and Matt McDonald, ‘The Politics of Climate Change in Australia’, Australian Journal of Politics and History 59, no. 3 (2013): 331–48; Jonathan Schultz, ‘Theorising Australia–Pacific Island Relations', Australian Journal of International Affairs 68, no. 5 (2014): 548–68.
92 ‘Australian Academics Push for the Pacific to be Seen as an “Arc of Opportunity”’, ABC Radio Australia, April 22, 2014, http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/radio/program/pacific-beat/australian-academics-push-for-the-pacific-to-be-seen-as-an-arc-of-opportunity/1299476 (accessed November 7, 2014); Joanne Wallis, ‘Use White Paper to Build Bridges Over the South Pacific’, Sydney Morning Herald and The Canberra Times, May 8, 2013; Joanne Wallis, ‘Neighbourhood Watch’, SBS Television News Comment, May 3, 2013, http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1762328/Comment-Neighbourhood-watch (accessed November 7, 2014); ‘Rethinking the South Pacific’, ABC Radio National, February 2, 2013, http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/pacific-arc-of-stability/4496456 (accessed November 7, 2014).
93 ‘MSG Needs a New Roadmap for the Next 25 Years', March 20, 2013, http://www.islandsbusiness.com/news/melanesian-spearhead-group/688/msg-needs-a-new-roadmap-for-the-next-25-years/ (accessed November 7, 2014).
94 ‘Sir Michael Somare Challenges MSG to Change “Arc of Instability” Tag’, Islands Business, March 18, 2013, http://www.islandsbusiness.com/news/fiji/662/sir-michael-somare-challenges-msg-to-change-arc-of/ (accessed November 7, 2014).