From demonisation to rapprochement: Abiy Ahmed’s early reforms and implications of the coming together of Ethiopia and Eritrea

ABSTRACT

In July 2018, the leaders of Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a historic peace agreement. The emergence of new leadership in Ethiopia was key to the unprecedented coming together between the two countries. This piece briefly discusses Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali’s ascent to power and the reconciliation between the two counties. It contends that the agreement is likely to affect the domestic political landscape in each country, while also affecting inter-state relations in the Horn of Africa.

KEYWORDS:

• Ethiopia
• Eritrea
• peace agreement
• foreign relations
• domestic politics

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Dr Aleksi Ylönen is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the United States International University – Africa. He is also a collaborating researcher at the Center for International Studies at University Institute of Lisbon and a member of the African Studies Group of Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain. Dr Ylönen’s research interests include international politics, regionalism, states and separatism and armed conflicts in the greater Horn of Africa.

Notes

1 BBC, ‘Eritrea and Ethiopia to Re-establish Diplomatic Ties’, British Broadcasting Channel, July 9, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44758327.

2 John Young, ‘The Tigray and Eritrean Peoples Liberation Fronts: A History of Tensions and Pragmatism’, The Journal of Modern African Studies 34, no. 1 (1996): 105–20.

3 United Nations, The United Nations and the Independence of Eritrea (New York: United Nations Department of Public Information, 1996), 19–31.

4 Evelyn Farkas, Fractured States and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, Ethiopia, and Bosnia in the 1990s (Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, 2003), 52.

5 Aleksi Ylönen, ‘Eritrea: A Rogue or a Strategically Constructed Threat?’, Observatoire des Enjeux Politiques et Sécuritaires dans la Corne de l’Afrique, note 14, Spring (2016): 16.

6 Permanent Court of Arbitration, ‘Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission’. https://pca-cpa.org/en/cases/99/.

7 Abraham T. Zere, ‘Isaias Out of Character: Why Eritreans Are Getting Nervous’, African Arguments, July 18, 2018. http://africanarguments.org/2018/07/18/why-eritrea-nervous-isaias-abiy-ethiopia/; Mahmud Saleh, ‘Hopeful Times: A Day to Remember’, Assenna, June 28, 2018. https://assenna.com/hopeful-times-a-day-to-remember/.

8 United Nations, ‘Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia Pursuant to Security Council Resolution 1811’, Security Council, December 10, 2008. S/2008/769.

9 United Nations, ‘Resolution 1907 (2009)’, Security Council, December 23, 2009. S/RES/1907.

10 Ludger Schadomsky, ‘Ethiopia: Who Is New Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali?’, Deutsche Welle, March 29, 2018. https://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-who-is-new-prime-minister-abiy-ahmed-ali/a-43180360.

11 Nizar Manek, ‘Can Abiy Ahmed Save Ethiopia?’, Foreign Policy, April 4, 2018. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/04/04/can-abiy-ahmed-save-ethiopia/.

12 See note 10.

13 Aaron Maasho, ‘UPDATE 3-Ethiopia’s New Premier Reshuffles Cabinet as Part of Reform Bid’, Reuters, April 19, 2018. https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL8N1RW1OI.

14 Fasika Tadesse, ‘Reshuffle Continues at Palace, Police and Agency’, Addis Fortune, May 26, 2018. https://addisfortune.net/articles/reshuffle-continues-at-palace-police-and-agency/.

15 Borkena, ‘Abiy Ahmed Appointed New Chief of Staff to Replace General Samora Yunis’, Borkena, June 7, 2018. https://www.borkena.com/2018/06/07/abiy-ahmed-appointed-new-chief-of-staff-to-replace-general-samora-yunis/.

16 Aaron Maasho, ‘Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Replaces Security Chiefs as Part of Reforms’, Reuters, June 8, 2018. https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1J40Q4.

17 Borkena, ‘Ethiopia to Undertake Huge Privatization Venture; Ethiopian Airlines in the List’, Borkena, June 5, 2018. https://www.borkena.com/2018/06/05/ethiopia-to-undertake-huge-privatization-venture-ethiopian-airlines-in-the-list/.

18 Cristopher Clapham, ‘The Ethiopian Developmental State’, Third World Quarterly 39, no. 6 (2018): 1151–65.

19 The Economist, ‘Ethiopia’s New Prime Minister Wants Peace and Privatisation’, The Economist, June 7, 2018. https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/06/07/ethiopias-new-prime-minister-wants-peace-and-privatisation.

20 Rick Gladstone, ‘Ethiopia to “Fully Accept” Eritrea Peace Deal From 2000’, The New York Times, June 5, 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/05/world/africa/ethiopia-eritrea-peace-deal.html.

21 Aaron Maasho, ‘Ethiopian PM Escapes Grenade Attack, One Dead, Scores Hurt’, Reuters, June 23, 2018. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ethiopia-politics/ethiopian-pm-escapes-grenade-attack-one-dead-scores-hurt-idUKKBN1JJ054.

22 Benson Matheka, ‘9 Top Ethiopia Police Officials Arrested over Addis Rally Attack’, Daily Nation, June 24, 2018. https://www.nation.co.ke/news/africa/Senior-Ethiopia-police-official-arrested/1066-4628086-pun2hg/index.html.

23 Aaron, Maasho, ‘Ethiopia Charges Five with Terrorism over Grenade Attack at PM’s Rally’, Reuters, September 28, 2018. https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKCN1M81ID-OZATP.

24 Bronwyn Bruton, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Have a Common Enemy’, Foreign Policy, July 12, 2018. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/12/ethiopia-and-eritrea-have-a-common-enemy-abiy-ahmed-isaias-afwerki-badme-peace-tplf-eprdf/; Yohannes Y. Gedamu, ‘Did Someone Try to Assassinate Ethiopia’s New Prime Minister? Here’s What You Need to Know’, The Washington Post, June 26, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/06/26/did-someone-try-to-assassinate-ethiopias-new-prime-minister-heres-what-you-need-to-know/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.fa4092ea9239.

25 BBC, ‘Eritrean Officials Visit Ethiopia for First Time in 20 Years’, British Broadcasting Channel, June 26, 2018. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44619094.

26 Eritrean Ministry of Information, ‘Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia’, Shabait, July 9, 2018. http://www.shabait.com/news/local-news/26639-joint-declaration-of-peace-and-friendship-between-eritrea-and-ethiopia.

27 Aljazeera, ‘Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki in Ethiopia for Landmark Visit’, Aljazeera, July 14, 2018. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/eritrea-president-isaias-afwerki-ethiopia-historic-visit-180714072020602.html.

28 Africa News, ‘Eritrea Reopens Embassy in Addis Ababa’, Africa News, July 16, 2018. http://www.africanews.com/2018/07/16/eritrea-reopens-embassy-in-addis-ababa/.

29 Aaron Maasho, ‘Flags, Flowers Greet First Ethiopia-Eritrea Flight in 20 Years’, Reuters, July 16, 2018. https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1K81LL-OZATP.

30 Hellen Githaiga, ‘Ethiopian Airlines to Buy 20pc Stake in Eritrean Air’, The East African, July 17, 2018. http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Ethiopian-Airlines-to-buy-20pc-stake-in-Eritrean-Air/2560-4667618-22xh2k/index.html.

31 Aaron Maasho, ‘Ethiopia, Eritrea Reopen Border Points for First Time in 20 Years’. Reuters, September 11, 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-eritrea/ethiopia-eritrea-reopen-border-points-for-first-time-in-20-years-idUSKCN1LR0FX.

32 Bronwyn Bruton, ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea Have a Common Enemy’, Foreign Policy, July 12, 2018. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/12/ethiopia-and-eritrea-have-a-common-enemy-abiy-ahmed-isaias-afwerki-badme-peace-tplf-eprdf/.

33 The Economist, ‘How Ethiopia and Eritrea Made Peace’. The Economist, July 17, 2018. https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/07/17/how-ethiopia-and-eritrea-made-peace.

34 African Globe, ‘Ethiopia Warns Saudi Arabia And UAE’, African Globe, November 30, 2015. https://www.africanglobe.net/africa/ethiopia-warns-saudi-arabia-uae/.

35 Khaleej Times, ‘Ethiopia Acquires 19% Stake in DP World Berbera Port’, Khaleej Times, March 1, 2018. https://www.khaleejtimes.com/ethiopia-acquires-19-stake-in-dp-world-berbera-port.

36 Justina Crabtree, ‘United Arab Emirates Gives Ethiopia $1 Billion Lifeline to Ease Foreign Exchange Crisis’, CNBC, June 18, 2018. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/18/united-arab-emirates-gives-ethiopia-1-billion-lifeline-to-ease-foreign-exchange-crisis.html.

37 Reuters, ‘Eritrea’s President Visits Abu Dhabi Crown Prince’, Reuters, July 4, 2018. https://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFKBN1JU0VF-OZATP?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews.

38 The Economist, ‘How Ethiopia and Eritrea Made Peace’. The Economist, July 17, 2018. https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/07/17/how-ethiopia-and-eritrea-made-peace.

39 Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, ‘Eritrean President in Saudi Arabia, Holds Bilateral Talks with King Salman’, Africa News, July 23, 2018. http://www.africanews.com/2018/07/23/eritrean-president-heads-to-saudi-arabia-on-invitation-of-king-salman/.

40 Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban, ‘Photos: Ethiopia-Eritrea Leaders Meet in UAE, Awarded for Peace Deal’, Africa News, July 24, 2018. http://www.africanews.com/2018/07/24/photos-ethiopia-eritrea-leaders-meet-in-uae-awarded-for-peace-deal/.

41 TesfaNews, ‘The Jeddah Peace Agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia (Full Text)’, TesfaNews, September 18, 2018. https://www.tesfanews.net/jeddah-peace-agreement-between-eritrea-ethiopia/.

42 Andrew Brennan, ‘The UAE Weaves a Regional “String of Pearls”’, Asia Times, May 26, 2018. http://www.atimes.com/the-uae-weaves-a-regional-string-of-pearls/.

43 The Ethiopian Herald, ‘Berbera Port: Widening Access to Ethiopia’s Growing Import-Export’, The Ethiopian Herald, March 17, 2018. http://www.ethpress.gov.et/herald/index.php/news/national-news/item/11238-berbera-port-widening-access-to-ethiopia-s-growing-import-export.

44 Mu Xuequan, ‘UN Security Council Mulls Lifting Eritrea Sanctions’, Xinhua, July 11, 2018. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-07/11/c_137315242.htm.

45 Harvey Granger, ‘US Counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa: A Chance for Ethiopian-Eritrean Cooperation?’, Georgetown Security Review, February 20, 2018, http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2018/02/20/us-counterterrorism-in-the-horn-of-africa-a-chance-for-ethiopian-eritrean-cooperation/.

46 Idrees Ali, ‘U.S. Military Puts “Great Power Competition” at Heart of Strategy: Mattis’, Reuters, January 19, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-military-china-russia/u-s-military-puts-great-power-competition-at-heart-of-strategy-mattis-idUSKBN1F81TR.

47 This competition has already culminated in logistics rivalry. For example Chinese built Doraleh Contained Terminal, the only one in the Horn of Africa so far able to handle world’s largest container ships, was built by the Chinese who have also constructed a railroad connecting Doraleh to Addis Ababa. In February 2018, Djibouti government ejected UAE’s DP World which had been contracted to manage Doraleh for 30 years in 2006. It has been speculated that this has to do with DP World entering in an agreement to operate in Berbera, Somaliland, and to favour Ethiopia and China which are keen to gain control over lucrative Doraleh that Ethiopia overwhelmingly depends on for its imports and exports. Aljazeera, ‘Djibouti Seizes Control of Dubai-run Doraleh Port’, Aljazeera, February 24, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/02/djibouti-seizes-control-dubai-run-dolareh-port-180223200900708.html.