Risk prediction and failure in a complete urban sample of sex offenders

Considerable progress has been made in developing risk prediction tools for sex offenders based on fixed variables. The aim of this study was to explore the comparative utility of the Risk Matrix 2000 and Static 99 on an urban community sample of child molesters and rapists, with reference to sexual recidivism, general community failure and the possible impact of treatment. The role of key developmental variables was explored in relation to risk prediction. The sample comprised 310 sex offenders, 273 of whom had been at risk in the community for an average of four years. The sexual reconviction rate was very low at 2%. Preliminary analyses suggested that the predictive accuracy of existing tools was enhanced by considering childhood difficulties. Future research should replicate the findings in the light of dynamic models of risk prediction.

Keywords:

• Risk
• failure
• recidivism
• sex offenders