Predictive validity of the youth level of service/case management inventory in custody sample in England

Abstract

The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is widely used in the United Kingdom, yet there have been no validation studies in England and Wales. This prospective study aimed to explore the predictive ability of the YLS/CMI in sample of 135 male adolescents with conduct problems in the absence of major Axis I pathology. Participants were assessed in custody and followed up 12 months post release. Outcome data on recidivism were based on Home Office records. YLS/CMI total score was a modest predictor of non-violent and any recidivism but the YLS/CMI risk classification showed greater predictive power. Participants classified at different risk levels showed differences in the frequency and time-to recidivism. Those rated as very high risk were 10.7 times more likely to re-offend sooner and 94% of the very high-risk group did re-offend over the follow-up period. Data are discussed in relation to implications for treatment planning and risk management.

Keywords:

• adolescence
• risk
• prediction
• reoffending
• YLS/CMI