Effects of Sudden and Dramatic Events on Travel Desire and Risk Judgments

Abstract

This paper reports results from two quasi experiments and one field experiment. The first study was performed before and during the Iraq war (Spring 2003), applying a within-subjects design. Participants rated their desire to undertake trips to various destinations and they estimated risks linked to these destinations and trips. The preferences were subjected to factor analysis, yielding 12 various holiday forms. Study 2 was conducted before and after the terror attacks in Madrid (Spring 2004), applying a within-subjects design and addressing the same issues as in the first study. The third study used a between-subjects design, and focused on risk judgments in tourists to Mallorca before and after the terror attacks in London (July 2005). Results from Study 1 indicated that the desire to travel decreased during the initial stages of the Iraq war. It was observed that risk judgments for various holiday forms remained unchanged. Results from Study 2 indicated that desire to travel and subjective risk judgments for various holiday forms did not change following the terrorist bombs in Madrid, but that Madrid was judged to be more risky following the terror. Results from Study 3 indicated that the terror bombs in London had no effect on risk judgments for various holiday forms, but that the events resulted in higher judgments for specific destinations such as for example London. Interestingly, retrospectively respondents in both Study 2 and Study 3 judged the world as such as well as tourist destinations to have become more risky and less safe since the “War on terror” was launched.

Keywords:

• Risk
• risk judgment
• travel desire
• war
• terror
• holiday forms
• destinations