TWENTY YEARS OF CYBERWAR

Abstract

For many years after its introduction in the early 1990s, the cyberwar concept - which outlined a new mode of conflict that would emphasize disruption of information systems and flows - was given little credence. Over the past several years, however, cyberwars of both irregular and somewhat more conventional types have erupted (e.g., see respectively Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008). Global awareness of cyberwar has risen sharply, and many nation-states are preparing their defenses, as well as their capabilities for mounting offensive operations. The American military's declaration in 2011 that cyberspace is a 'warfighting domain' highlights a need to explore the ethical implications and nuances of cyberwar. This article finds that classic jus ad bellum constructs come under great pressure from cyberwar, while jus in bello concerns may prove more manageable. Another key theme is that disproportionate attention is given to the notion of employing cyberwar 'strategically' (i.e., to strike directly at other nations' infrastructures), where its use is less likely to achieve 'victory' and is more problematic ethically. Instead, a focus on the application of cyberwar techniques in battle may lead to shorter, less bloody, 'more ethical' conflicts.

Keywords:

• Anonymity
• cyberwar
• escalation
• proportionality

Notes

1. Our RAND think-piece was then published the following year as a journal article: Arquilla and Ronfeldt (1993).

2. This strand of thought about cyberwar – including a deep analysis of the air power analogy – is discussed thoroughly by Rattray (2001).

3. On this point, see Pape (1996).

4. The most articulate exposition of the anti-cyberwar perspective can be found in Rid (2012).

5. See Pentagon to Unveil Cybersecurity Strategy, The Washington Post, 13 July 2011. Note that the US Air Force had, for its own part, made a very similar declaration in 2005.

6. A comprehensive early survey of these sorts of exploits can be found in Verton (2003). For more recent instances, see Clarke and Knake (2010).

7. Thomas Aquinas, Summa Theologica, II-II, qu. 40, Article 1 (quoted from Aquinas 2008).

8. For example, see Arquilla (1999: 203-12).

9. As cyber-weapons grow in sophistication, it is possible that their effects may one day move beyond just disruption, becoming more lethal as well. This development would make the issue of non-combatant immunity in cyberwar even more complex.

10. As Thucydides (1951) notes in his History of the Peloponnesian War, its cause was the 'growth of power in Athens and the fear this inspired in Sparta' (Book I, 1.34 -[3]). For Francis Bacon (1908: 86), in his essay 'Of Empire,' the main point was that 'there is no question but a just fear of an imminent danger, though there be no blow given, is a lawful cause of war.'