Temperature and precipitation changes impact the yields of small grain cultivars from 1978 to 2018 in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska

ABSTRACT

Regions in high latitudes are experiencing greater climate change than other regions. In this study, the impact of temperature and precipitation on the yield of fifteen cultivars (eight barley [Hordeum vulgare], four oat [Avena sativa], and three wheat [Triticum aestivum]) from a small grain field experiment in Fairbanks and Delta Junction, Alaska, from 1978 to 2018 were analyzed to evaluate their sensitivity to variation in climate that occurred during this period. Using first-difference time series of log yield change and the changes of determinant weather (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) as variables, linear regression and Bayesian simulation models were fitted for analysis. Results showed that of fifteen cultivars, two barley and one wheat had a consistent yield reduction (p < .05) in both locations over the test period. The remaining cultivars, though they experienced a yield reduction, the degree of the change varied by individual cultivar depending on the location (from −10.3 to 4.1 percent). For impact of temperature and precipitation, the majority of cultivars of three small grains decreased in yield (2.4–22.5 percent per degree) with elevated temperature but increased in yield (2.4–6.0 percent per centimeter) with higher precipitation. Over the growing season, increased temperatures and reduced total precipitation in June and July reduced the yields of cultivars. The results suggest that cultivar response to climate change differed by location. Nevertheless, elevated temperature and lower precipitation appear to be the variables causing a decrease in yield. Therefore, selection of cultivars under climate change scenarios in different locations is imperative, and this study provides insight for future small grain cultivar selections in Alaska.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• yield loss
• barley
• oat
• wheat

Acknowledgments

We appreciate all researchers not listed as coauthors from the University of Alaska Fairbanks for their great contributions to Alaska small grain alternative crop testing trials. These researchers include the late Dr. Frank J. Wooding, Dr. Carol Lewis, Dr. Jenifer H. McBeath, Dr. Stephen M. Dofing, Dr. G. Allen Michel Jr., Dr. Brenton Sharratt, S. Frost, J. T. Hanscom, and G. M. Delucchi.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by the USDA Hatch project (ALK 19-04) and Multi-State Project (ALK 15-03).