Probabilistic Transition-Based Optimal Energy Transaction of a Non-Convex CHP-Microgrid during Generation and Load Uncertainty

Abstract

Combined heat power dispatch with improved operation remains a popular preference in microgrid having uncertain and non-convex nature of the system. This research work deploys an efficient energy management system driven by a novel stochastic transitions tuned unscented Gaussian distribution (ST-UnGD) for optimal energy transaction. The proposed scheme has been introduced with uncertainty modeling of available generations and load using probabilistic transition-based timed petri net. Echo algorithm has been used to influence prioritized transition for appropriate number of token distribution. The control over the process during transition has been supervised with UnGD. A uniform probability density function has been created using Gaussian distribution to characterize random variables for effective time series scenario generation. The mean and variance which helps in sorting ten competent scenarios from one thousand scenarios, has been computed with the proposed strategy and compared with other methods. The improvement has been noticed with standard deviation of 0.0162% after 40 trials run with average operational cost of 254.211€ when token distribution was updated by 100, 200, 300, 400, and 500 firings. A statistical analysis by parametric and non-parametric test confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm showing appropriate confidence level in the mentioned case study.

Keywords:

• CHP-microgrid
• efficient energy management
• echo connectivity
• token transitions
• unscented Gaussian distribution
• uncertainty

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

We honestly acknowledge and thank Jadavpur University and Institute of Engineering & Management, Kolkata, India for the essential assistance to carry out the research work.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Debashis Jana

Debashis Jana was born in Kolkata, India on 5th June, 1985. He received his Bachelor's (2008) in Electrical Engineering from West Bengal University of Technology, Kolkata and Masters's Degree (2011) in Power Engineering from Jadavpur University, Kolkata. He has served as Assistant Engineer, OHE (Railway) at ERA Infra Engineering limited, New Delhi and Assistant Professor at Camellia Institute of Engineering, Kolkata. Now he is working as Assistant Professor in the department of Electrical Engineering at Institute of Engineering & Management, Kolkata. His research interest includes energy economics, microgrid reliability analysis, uncertainty analysis in energy management, distributed and stochastic computing.

Niladri Chakraborty

Niladri Chakraborty was born in Kolkata on 27/08/1964. He received his Bachelor's (1986) and Masters's Degree (1989) in Electrical Engineering from Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. He was the recipient of the prestigious Commonwealth Scholarship in the United Kingdom and obtained the Diploma of Imperial College and Doctor of Philosophy from the University of London in 1999. He was elected as the youngest Dean of the Faculty of Engineering and Technology at Jadavpur University in 2010. He has served twice as Head of the Department of Power Engineering and as Joint Director of the School of Energy Studies at Jadavpur University. He was often elected to the Executive Council and The Court, the highest policy-making academic body of Jadavpur University. He has also received Scholarships from the Royal Society (UK)-DST and Abdul Kalam Award, besides many other awards from numerous academic activities. Dr Chakraborty has served as one of the Lead Scientists in India's National Communication to United Nations on Climate Change (NATCOM, India, UNFCCC) and a Specialized Energy Expert in formulating the Futuristic Energy Action Plan for the Government of West Bengal, India. Prof. Chakraborty's recent research interests include energy economics, renewable integrated microgrid, grid integration, environmental measurement and material modelling.