Analysis and Comparison of Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Potential Using Different Estimation Methods: A Case Study of Isparta Province in Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the success of the numerical methods and a metaheuristic algorithm in parameter estimation of Weibull distribution, which is frequently used in wind energy applications, are compared. Numerical methods are Justus empirical method, moment method, graphical method, energy pattern factor method (EPM), energy trend method, maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE). The metaheuristic algorithm is manta ray foraging optimization method (MRFO). The wind data used in the study were recorded hourly in the Isparta region in the southwest of Turkey. A graphical user interface design has been made to easily perform the calculations in this study. The success of the methods was tested with four different statistical error analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, the MRFO method was by far the most successful method. EPM and MLE methods were the most unsuccessful methods.

Keywords:

• Weibull distribution
• wind energy
• numerical methods
• MRFO
• statistical analysis
• GUI

AUTHORS’ CONTRIBUTION

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection and material preparation were performed by Okan BİNGÖL. Analysis and GUI design were performed by Aydın BULUT. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Aydın BULUT and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS

Not applicable.

ETHICS APPROVAL AND CONSENT TO PARTICIPATE

Not applicable.

CONSENT FOR PUBLICATION

Not applicable.

COMPETING INTERESTS

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Funding

Not applicable.

Notes on contributors

Aydın Bulut

Aydın Bulut is a Ph. D. student in the Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering at Isparta University of Applied Sciences. He received his B.S. degree in electrical engineering from Istanbul Technical University, İstanbul, Turkey, 2015. He received his M.S. degree in electrical and electronics engineering from Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey, 2022. He is currently working at the Turkey Sugar Factories Co. as process automation engineer. His research interests include electric power components and systems.

Okan Bingöl

Okan Bingöl received his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees in the Department of Electrical Education at Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey. He is currently a Professor at Faculty of Technology and Head of Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering at Isparta University of Applied Sciences. His research interests include electric power components and systems.