An Empirical Test of A Macro-Structural Neo-Marxist Model for Explaining Fertility Rates in Less Developed Countries

Abstract

This study explores a comprehensive integrative framework combining traditional demographic transition theory, wealth flow theory, world-system/dependency theories for explaining third world fertility rates. By using either TFR or CBR, the results support the idea presented by B. Entwisle regarding the consistent findings in cross-national studies using either TFR or CBR. The thesis made by M. Hout emphasizing the wealth flow can be an important intervening mechanism in the dependency-fertility relationship is supported by the cross-national data analysis. The limited effect of family planning efforts as reported by D. Hernandez is also re-confirmed using a more comprehensive neo-Marxist model theorizing. Overall, an integrative dependency-fertility framework can largely increase variance explained in understanding macro-structural determinants of third world fertility.

From the early 1980s theoretical and empirical work on determinants of fertility levels and trends among less developed countries has started to view continuing higher levels of fertility in the third world as a function of world system positions and continuing higher levels of economic dependency (e.g., Hout, 1980; Nolan & White, 1983 & 1984; Cutright & Adams, 1984; London, 1988). However, the research findings for the proposed dependency-fertility relationship were somewhat contradictory. Some studies found that there is a relationship between dependency or subordinate world system status and high level of fertility rates in less developed countries (Hout, 1980; Nolan & White, 1983); other studies seemed to find a weak and indirect or even no relationship between dependency and fertility (Nolan & White, 1984; Cutright & Adams, 1984).

London (1988) after criticizing and improving the methods, measures, and approaches used in the previous research, reports that dependency (in terms of transnational corporate penetration) does distort development and impede fertility decline in the third world countries. However, the actual relationship between dependency and fertility trends in the third world is still not clear because all these previous research failed to specify important intervening mechanisms linking dependency to fertility trends in the third world. Meanwhile, the measure of economic dependency (transnational corporate penetration) as proposed by London in his landmark study of dependency-fertility relationship has been later found to have been inversely explained (Firebaugh, 1992).

In this study I argue that the long-term retrogressive effects of capitalist penetration throughout the world, combining some important intervening mechanisms can provide an integrated theoretical framework for explaining fertility trends in LDCs. After an examination of current theories based mostly on the traditional modernization paradigm on fertility change, this study intends to develop a more comprehensive neo-Marxist model (dependency/world system perspective) to explaining fertility trends in the third world countries. The model will postulate important mechanisms (the underdevelopment and the developmental distortions effects) intermediating the high mortality and fertility phenomena in many less developed countries, even controlling for the effects of family planning program efforts and other variables from wealth flow theory. Empirically, two rather than one important measures of economic dependency, namely, transnational corporate penetration and a measure of trade dependence, trade as percentage of GNP, will be used in the re-analysis of the dependency-fertility relationship.