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Abstract
Risk assessments like the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) are widely used by juvenile justice systems to identify young offenders that are likely to reoffend. These instruments are also used for case management purposes, to determine areas of criminogenic risk that are amenable to intervention. This study explored the risk–recidivism relationship between YLS/CMI score and reoffense rates over 24 months for African Americans (n = 459), Whites (n = 509), boys (n = 694), and girls (n = 274). The YLS/CMI had an area under the curve (AUC) coefficient of .63 overall; however, subgroup differences in distribution of recidivism by risk level were found. Moreover, subscales for the YLS/CMI had differential predictive validity for the respective subgroups. Future study should account for macrolevel risk factors like policing and surveillance levels, which are currently excluded from the assessment.