Factors Affecting Accident Severity Inside and Outside Urban Areas in Greece

Abstract

Objectives: This research aims to identify and analyze the factors affecting accident severity through a macroscopic analysis, with a focus on the comparison between inside and outside urban areas. Disaggregate road accident data for Greece for the year 2008 were used.

Methods: Two models were developed, one for inside and one for outside urban areas. Because the dependent variable had 2 categories, killed/severely injured (KSI) and slightly injured (SI), the binary logistic regression analysis was selected. Furthermore, this research aims to estimate the probability of fatality/severe injury versus slight injury as well as to calculate the odds ratios (relative probabilities) for various road accident configurations. The Hosmer and Lemeshow statistic and other diagnostic tests were conducted in order to assess the goodness-of-fit of the model.

Results: From the application of the models, it appears that inside urban areas 3 types of collisions (sideswipe, rear-end, with fixed object/parked car), as well as involvement of motorcycles, bicycles, buses, 2 age groups (18–30 and older than 60 years old), time of accident, and location of the accident, seem to affect accident severity. Outside urban areas, 4 types of collisions (head-on, rear-end, side, sideswipe), weather conditions, time of accident, one age group (older than 60 years old), and involvement of motorcycles and buses were found to be significant.

Conclusions: Factors affecting road accident severity only inside urban areas include young driver age, bicycles, intersections, and collision with fixed objects, whereas factors affecting severity only outside urban areas are weather conditions and head-on and side collisions, demonstrating the particular road users and traffic situations that should be focused on for road safety interventions for the 2 different types of networks (inside and outside urban areas). The methodology and the results of this research may provide a promising tool to prioritize programs and measures to improve road safety in Greece and worldwide.

Keywords:

• Accident severity
• Logistic regression
• Odds and probability ratios
• Diagnostic tests