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Abstract
Objective: In Spain, the absolute fatality figures decreased almost 50 percent between 1998 and 2009. Despite this great effort, road mortality is still of great concern to political authorities. Further progress requires efficient road safety policy based on an optimal set of measures and targets that consider the initial conditions and characteristics in each region. This study attempts to analyze road accidents in Spain and its provinces in time and space during 1998–2009.
Methods: First, we analyzed daily, monthly, and nationwide (NUTS 0) development of road accidents, the correlation between logarithmic transformations of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, the causality by simple linear regression of road accidents and territorial and socioeconomic variables, and preliminary frequency by fast Fourier transform. Then we analyzed the annual trend in accidents in the Spanish provinces (NUTS 3) and found a correlation between the logarithmic transformations of the mortality rate, fatalities per fatal accident, and accidents resulting in injuries per inhabitant variables and population, population density, gross domestic product (GDP), length of road network, and area. Finally, causality was analyzed by simple linear regression.
Results: The most outstanding results were the negative correlation between mortality rate and population density in Spanish provinces, which has increased over time, and that road accidents in Spain have an approximate periodicity of 57 days.
Conclusions: The fast Fourier transform analysis of road accident frequency in Spain was useful in identifying the periodic, harmonic components of accidents and casualties. The periodicity observed both for the period 1998–2009 and by year showed that the highest intensity in road accidents was bimonthly, despite the lower number of accidents and casualties in the spectra of amplitude and power and efforts to reduce the intensity and concentration during off-season travel (summer and December).
Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.