Estimating young novice drivers' compliance with graduated driver licensing restrictions: A novel approach

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Current methods of estimating compliance with graduated driver licensing (GDL) restrictions among young drivers with intermediate driver's licenses—which include surveys, direct observations, and naturalistic studies—cannot sufficiently answer many critical foundational questions: What is the extent of noncompliance among the population of young intermediate drivers? How does compliance change over the course of licensure? How does compliance differ by driver subgroup and in certain driving environments? This article proposes an alternative and complementary approach to estimating population-level compliance with GDL nighttime and passenger restrictions via application of the quasi-induced exposure (QIE) method.

Methods: The article summarizes the main limitations of previous methods employed to estimate compliance. It then introduces the proposed method of borrowing the fundamental assumption of the QIE method—that young intermediate drivers who are nonresponsible in clean (i.e., one and only one responsible driver) multivehicle crashes are reasonably representative of young intermediate drivers on the road—to estimate population-based compliance. I describe formative work that has been done to ensure this method can be validly applied among young intermediate drivers and provide a practical application of this method: an estimate of compliance with New Jersey's passenger restrictions among 8,006 nonresponsible 17- to 20-year-old intermediate drivers involved in clean 2-vehicle crashes from July 2010 through June 2012.

Results: Over the study period, an estimated 8.4% (95% confidence interval, 7.8%, 9.0%) of intermediate drivers' trips were not in compliance with New Jersey's GDL passenger restriction. These findings were remarkably similar to previous estimates from more resource-intensive naturalistic studies (Goodwin et al. 2006; Klauer et al. 2011).

Conclusion: Studies can practically apply proposed methods to estimate population-level compliance with GDL passenger and night restrictions; examine how compliance varies by relevant driver, vehicle, and environmental factors; and evaluate the implementation of a GDL provision or other intervention aimed at increasing compliance with these restrictions. Important considerations and potential limitations and challenges are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Graduated driver licensing
• GDL provisions
• induced exposure
• novice teen driver
• probationary license
• risky driving behaviors

Acknowledgments

The author would like to thank Michael Elliott, Melissa Pfeiffer, and Dennis Durbin for their contributions; Rob Foss for his insights; and Allan Williams for critically reviewing a draft of the article. The author also thanks Christine Norris for her editorial guidance; Sayaka Ogawa for her assistance in formatting the article; and the New Jersey Department of Transportation, New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission, and New Jersey Office of Information Technology for their assistance in providing data.

Funding

This work was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development at the National Institutes of Health (Grant R03HD073248, PI: Curry). The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.