An analysis of the novice motorcyclist crashes in Taiwan

Abstract

Objective

Motorcycles comprised over 60% of motor vehicles in Taiwan. There were still many motorcycle crashes in Taiwan, especially among young riders. This study investigated the characteristics of novice motorcyclist crashes in Taiwan over the period January 2011 to December 2016. Various risk factors affecting the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes, such as the rider characteristics, licensing conditions, and the environment, were examined.

Methods

To model the count data with multiple crash severities, several regression models were considered. The multinomial logit (MNL) model, ordered logit (OL) model, and partial proportional odds (PPO) model were chosen and investigated for the relationships between the severity of novice motorcyclist crashes and potential risk factors.

Results

The results showed that the novice rider who was underage or unlicensed had a higher probability of a fatal crash. Male sex, helmet use, drinking, college student, frontal impact, urban or dry road, and daytime all played significant roles in novice motorcyclist crashes.

Conclusions

Taiwan traffic safety needs further policy adjustments and public education toward novice motorcycle crashes. Adequate driving training and providing a user-friendly environment for novice riders could help. Taiwan should consider graduated driver licensing systems for skill-building and riding supervision for new motorcyclists.

Keywords:

• Novice motorcyclist
• multinomial logit model
• ordered logit model
• partial proportional odds model

Acknowledgment

Many thanks to the Taiwan Institute of Transportation (IOT).