A Forecasting Analysis on China‘S Energy Use and Carbon Emissions Based on A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

ABSTRACT

This paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to forecast China‘s economy, energy use, and carbon emissions. The fossil energy sector and clean electricity sector are disaggregated in detail to obtain robust results. The analysis results show that the industry and energy structure will obviously change along with a high and stable economy growth trend by 2030. Although energy intensity and carbon emission intensity in China will decrease markedly, carbon emissions will keep rising and will not peak by 2030. Therefore, China‘s government must adopt effective measures to realize the commitment goal.

KEY WORDS:

• Carbon emissions
• dynamic computable general equilibrium model
• energy consumption
• energy sector disaggregation

Supplementary material

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Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Social Science Fund of China under Grant No. [15ZDB165].