Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach

ABSTRACT

The economic effects and consequences of an aging population on economic growth in terms of productivity and demand have attracted great attention from policy makers, particular in emerging countries. This study examines the effect of an aging population on economic growth in 84 developing countries in the period 1971–2015, using panel fixed effects and quantile regression. The results confirm a negative effect on economic growth in the long run from having a high share of young people (14 years old and younger). However, in the long run, a positive relationship exists between the share of those 65 and older and economic performance. The quantile regression results confirm the importance of an aging population on economic growth at most percentiles. However, from lower to higher percentiles, the estimated magnitudes differ.

KEYWORDS:

• Aging population
• developing countries
• quantile regression

JEL:

• J10
• O11

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for the helpful and constructive feedback, which was instrumental in improving this article.

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed on the publisher’s website.

Notes

1. We thank one of the referees for this suggestion.

2. We thank one of the referees for this suggestion.

3. We thank one of the referees for this suggestion.

Additional information

Funding

This research is funded by Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (NAFOSTED) under grant number 502.01-2018.38.